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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191141
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
741 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across the area this morning. A large
area of high pressure extending from central Canada to the Plains
will expand east across the Great Lakes Region through the weekend.
High pressure will shift to the New England coast early next week
with a ridge lingering westward across the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An initial lack of mid-level moisture was causing some
drizzle/freezing drizzle in eastern portions of the area with
marginal temperatures near the freezing mark. Band of
precipitation has filled in and is quickly moving east so most
sites should be transitioning to snow before ending this
morning.

Previous discussion...
Precipitation can be seen moving into NW Ohio on regional radars and
is associated with an upper level trough that will swing southeast
across the area this morning. Precipitation has been starting as a
rain/snow mix in many areas given that the low levels remain
fairly warm still. As the trough begins to push southward,
precipitation will spread east and increasing cold advection
will make for a faster transition to snow. Many areas will see
a light coating of snow, especially south of a Findlay to
Mansfield line where accumulations could creep up to near an
inch, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Deep moisture will be east of the area by 18Z with a dry northwest
flow spreading in from the west. Snow showers may linger across the
snowbelt this morning but will tend to taper off in all but NW PA by
mid afternoon. Clouds will scatter out in NW Ohio with April sun
helping temperatures reach the upper 40s today. The cooler airmass
will be focused across the east with 850mb temperatures as cool as
-8C and high temperatures in the 30s.

Clear skies expected tonight except some stratocu holding on
downwind of Lake Erie. Kept mins downwind of the lake a little
warmer while good radiational cooling expected elsewhere. The ridge
expands eastward on Friday with a gradual warming trend developing.
Highs will range from the lower 40s east to lower 50s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A quiet weekend is expected as high pressure slowly builds from the
western Great Lakes Friday night eastward into the mid Atlantic
region through Sunday night. Dry conditions are expected, with below
normal temperatures slowly moderating towards, but slight below,
normal by the end of the weekend. No major changes to temps through
this period, with highs Saturday in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and in
the low to upper 50s Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Near normal temperatures are expected for the first half of next
week as broad upper ridging dominates the eastern CONUS, and a
cutoff low over the lower MS valley slowly tracks east off the
southeast US coast by Tuesday night. Dry conditions are expected
across the region Monday through Tuesday, with high temperatures in
the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area. A potent shortwave and
surface cold front will track east into the area by Wednesday. Rain
chances remain in the forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of
this system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Band of snow quickly moving southeast this morning will impact
MFD/CAK/YNG for another hour or two before ending. Conditions
will quickly improve from IFR to MVFR as the snow ends and drier
air starts to arrive from the north. Clouds will scatter out of
NW Ohio this afternoon while lingering in NE Ohio most of the
day and possibly into this evening. North to northwest winds are
expected to increase with gusts to 25 knots on Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR may linger in NW PA into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure centered over the mid Atlantic and high pressure
building into the Great Lakes from the northern Plains will bring a
fairly strong gradient over Lake Erie today. North winds in the 20-
25 kt range are expected today, with winds slowly backing northwest
this afternoon. Winds will subside into the 10-20 kt range tonight
before dropping to 15 kts or less by Friday morning. Winds will
become light and variable Friday night through the weekend with high
pressure overhead, becoming predominantly easterly Sunday night into
Monday as the ridge moves east of the Great Lakes. Winds will become
more southerly by Tuesday ahead of a cold front, but will remain in
the 15 kt or less range early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ143>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Greenawalt