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000
FXUS61 KCLE 212228
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
628 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will drift to New
England overnight while low pressure drifts from Iowa to
Illinois. A warm front east from the low will move north into
the area Friday. The low will remain in the area through
Saturday. Sunday high pressure will begin building in from the
north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Removed mention of thunder for this evening for the 630 update.
The warm front still down by Dayton area and do not expect any
thunderstorms until get into the warm sector.

Original discussion... Low pressure over Iowa will move to
Illinois overnight. A stationary front east from the low across
southern Ohio will turn warm and move north into the area by
Friday afternoon. Radar shows a swath of convection from WI
southeast across swrn Ohio and into the TN Vly. This convection
was moving slowly northeast and will move into the southwest CWA
counties this evening filling in to near Cleveland by Friday
morning. Do however expect coverage and intensity to decrease
through the overnight hours with loss of heating. Models show
this swath of overrunning convection should lift north of the
CWA Friday afternoon although it could get hung up across
northeast Oh and nwrn PA through the afternoon. With the warm
front in the area however expect additional convection to
develop along the boundary and this could turn heavy at times
especially if training develops. BUFKIT also shows motion
vectors of 10 knots or less supporting the potential for locally
heavy rainfall. Best chances for this would be western and
southern counties. The low will move across the TOL area Friday
night favored continues convection central and east through the
overnight as slightly drier air wraps into the west. Aside from
low pops early tonight central and east, will have likely to
categorical pops through the near term period. Lows in the 60s
highs Friday in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
There likely will be no escaping the rain on Saturday, the
question more becomes if we can find chances for less
widespread/more scattered activity (lulls). The low will be
crossing overhead Saturday and much of the influence from it
will take place, broadly speaking, during the first half of the
day. The wave will have passed by Saturday evening/Saturday
night and have weighted the precip chances accordingly. The
heavy rainfall threat will be a continuation from the near term
period and will still be a concern into Saturday. A cold
front/trough from the upper lakes in advance of high pressure
for Monday will cross the area Sunday with another uptick in
precip chances, albeit less than Saturday as it looks right now.
Temperatures will still be seasonable despite the cloud cover
with the warm airmass. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s until
the drier high moves in Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather continues into at least Wednesday morning as high
pressure remains firmly in place over the region. A warming
trend will continue Tuesday into at least Wednesday...with
temperatures generally near normal to around 5 degrees above
normal.

On Wednesday morning an upper low over southern Minnesota will move
quickly northeast into Ontario by Thursday morning. This system will
bring a good shot of precipitation to the area beginning as early as
Wednesday with possible showers continuing into Thursday. There are
still timing and intensity differences between the GFS and the
ECMWF...so just mainly left precipitation chances to either a slight
chance to a chance. We will continue to monitor how this system
evolves and update the forecast accordingly once we have more
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Warm front across southern Ohio near a Dayton to Parkersburg WV
line. Showers will slowly lift north over the area as the front
lifts north. Expect MVFR conditions with the showers, gradually
falling to IFR cigs late tonight.

Will be in the warm sector tomorrow so a better chance of
afternoon thunderstorms. SPC has area in general thunder for
tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions likely continuing Friday night
into Sunday in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Expanded the beach/swimming hazards statement to include all of
the beaches from Maumee State Park to Ripley NY. Previous
discussion...Northeast flow is steadily picking up on the lake
this afternoon and waves are responding. A small craft advisory
is in place through tonight and into Friday morning. Toward
Friday morning the winds will begin to shift more east and then
east-southeast and will generate higher waves further offshore
across the east end of the lake. So for now have the east end
small craft advisory expiring at 4am and the rest of the area
expiring at 10 am. There is a chance this may need to be
extended further into Friday especially around the Islands. This
will all be happening as high pressure shifts southeast across
the eastern lakes and New England and low pressure across the
midwest/Iowa slowly shifts east, tightening the gradient. The
low will reach the west end of the lake for Saturday with its
associated warm/cold fronts. A final trough will cross the lake
Sunday with high pressure building across the region for Monday
and Tuesday. So Friday night winds/waves subside more
significantly. As the low passes winds will shift to the west
with a shift to the north-northeast as the high builds early
next work week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday morning for OHZ003-007-
     009>012.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Friday for OHZ089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Friday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ148-149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Riley
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Oudeman