Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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101
FXUS61 KCLE 091202
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
702 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Central Great Lakes will drift east to New
England today. Low pressure over the Plains will track northeast
into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday, lifting a warm front north
across the area. The will quickly be followed by a cold front on
Sunday night with high pressure building into the Ohio Valley on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Minor adjustments were made to bring clouds in a little faster
this afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion...The upper level ridge axis builds east
across the area today while surface high pressure starting off
over the Great Lakes moves to New England by tonight. For the
local area this means one more day of dry conditions before
widespread rain arrives on Sunday as a warm front lifts north
into the area. Today will be mostly sunny with some passing
cirrus and high temperatures within a couple degrees of normal
in the 50s. Light easterly winds can be expected and relative
humidity will mix down to below 30 percent for some inland
locations this afternoon given a very dry layer of air near
850mb.

For tonight and Sunday we will see low pressure track out of the
Plains towards the Upper Midwest. The pressure gradient will tighten
overnight and southerly flow will allow for warm advection and
rising temperatures after midnight. One place this will be
noticeable is in Erie PA where temperatures will climb with
downsloping conditions enhancing winds with gusts of 30-35 mph
possible into Sunday morning. Elsewhere clouds are expected to
thicken and lower but the arrival of rain into northwest Ohio will
not occur until after 2-4 AM. Rain will rapidly expand eastward
during the morning on Sunday as a 45 knot low level jet lifts
northeast towards Lake Erie. Rain is expected to be widespread with
a good window of isentropic ascent and a northward moving warm
front. Most areas are forecast to receive at least a half inch of
rain with pockets of three quarters of an inch or more. Temperatures
in the warm sector will be limited by the rain and strong inversion
near 925mb. While southerly winds will be breezy, the coverage of
rain and inversion are expected to keep the strong winds associated
with the low level jet from mixing down. The best opportunity for
both stronger wind gusts and late day high temperatures will be
during the afternoon in northwest and north central Ohio as a deep
dry-slot wraps into the system. Surface low pressure is forecast to
occlude over the Upper Midwest and the cold front will just be on
our doorstep by late Sunday afternoon. At that time, we may mix into
the stronger winds near 2500 feet of up to 30-35 knots but will not
mix into the stronger winds of 50+ knots at 7-10K feet. Highs will
peak in the mid 50s in NW Pennsylvania while potentially reaching
the mid 60s in NW Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation will begin to taper from west to east as the first of
two cold fronts sweeps east through the area Sunday night. Not
anticipating much of an air mass change with this first cold front.
Breezy conditions can be expected with the passing cold front Sunday
night, with 925 mb winds of 35 to 40 knots translating to brief
surface wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph, especially along the lakeshore
east of Cleveland.

The second cold front will arrive Monday night, ushering in a cooler
air mass across the region. Currently, DESI probabilities indicate a
>70% chance of 850 mb temperatures falling below 0C, though a lower
threshold of -4C yields much lower and brief probabilities (a
glancing blow), with the coldest air confined further towards the
north and northeast of the region. Nonetheless, would expect some
light, scattered lake-effect/enhanced rain showers across Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Monday night into Tuesday,
especially with the frontal passage.

Above-average temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Monday
will fall back to near normal in the lower 50s behind the secondary
cold front for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main feature to watch in the long term period will be the
development of a low pressure system and associated upper-level
trough moving west to east across the Great Lakes in the Wednesday
night into Thursday timeframe. DESI cluster analysis reveals low
confidence amongst ensemble guidance for the mid-week system
regarding surface low pressure location and strength. However, much
of the area should expect rain at some point Wednesday night into
Thursday with the upper-level trough and associated surface cold
front passage.

Following the mid-week system, ensemble guidance is currently
favoring the development of an upper-level ridge across Central
CONUS which will slowly meander towards the Eastern CONUS by the end
of the week. This would would result in a return to above-average
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s for the end of the week and
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will be in place for most of the TAF cycle.
Cirrus will increase and thicken today. Clouds will gradually
lower overnight with rain arriving at TOL/FDY around 10Z Sun.
Widespread rain will spread east across the area through 18Z Sun
and included rain at CLE at approximately 13Z Sun. Conditions
are expected to deteriorate as the rain arrives with expanding
IFR ceilings and potentially low IFR conditions.

Easterly winds of 5-10 knots expected today. Winds become
southeasterly tonight and increase out of the south on Sunday.
ERI will gust prior to 12Z with downsloping contributing to
winds gusting to between 25-30 knots late tonight. A low level
jet of 40-50 knots will move overhead on Sunday but did not
include low level wind sheer in the forecast as the pressure
gradient tightens and surface wind gusts increase. Most
locations can expect southerly winds to gust to between 20-25
knots. If winds are not strong enough or gusting consistently
on Sunday then low level wind sheer may need to be added to the
TAFs, mainly after 12Z.

Outlook...Rain will arrive on Sunday and non-VFR is
possible with showers and low ceilings early Sunday morning
through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly quiet marine conditions will persist through tonight with
high pressure overhead. Small Craft conditions may redevelop on
Sunday ahead of a cold front, with southerly winds increasing in the
15 to 25 knot range. Small Craft headlines will be needed Sunday
night through Monday night as winds shift towards the west to
northwest, and eventually north, 20 to 25 knots, behind the cold
front. West winds may occasionally gust between 30 and 35 knots
immediately behind the cold front late Sunday evening and Sunday
night, particularly across the eastern basin of Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Kahn