Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290655
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
155 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front will sink south towards the
area tonight before high pressure returns Wednesday through
Thursday. The high will move east of the area through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
No changes made with this evening update.

Previous discussion...
Recent satellite trends note cooling cloud tops and more
supercooled water, so have eliminated drizzle/freezing drizzle
chances through this evening across the area and replaced with
chance/slight chances of snow showers. Have brought back in
freezing drizzle/drizzle chances again tonight starting at 00Z
as cloud tops will hover at or just below -10C with a dry layer
above a moist shallow layer. Have warmed low temperatures
tonight a degree or two above guidance as temperatures remained
fairly constant around the freezing mark last night.

A very weak shortwave trough will make its way across the
northeast portion of our area later this afternoon, but doesn`t
look to add much in the way of precipitation chances. Precipitation
chances will dwindle trough tomorrow morning as dry air filters
in from the northeast, with some breaks in the clouds possible.
Highs Wednesday will be similar to today in the low to mid 30s
with lows reaching the low to mid 20s with the expected break in
cloud cover.

Winds remain fairly light throughout the short term period with
northwest winds this afternoon becoming north tonight, then
north/northeast by tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will be overhead on Thursday with dry
conditions expected through the short term window. Areas of stratus
are expected to remain across portions of northern Ohio although
breaks are expected. We will also see varying degrees of mid-level
cloud passing aloft. Temperatures will peak in the low to mid 30s
for another day. Sufficient cloud cover is expected Thursday night
to prevent temperatures from dropping too much except in NW PA where
more breaks are expected and temperatures dip into the upper teens.
As the surface high shifts offshore on Friday, southerly return flow
will develop with temperatures recovering into the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough will cross the region on Saturday with cooler
air arriving in its wake. A mix of rain and snow will be possible
Saturday but should transition to all snow by Saturday night for NE
OH/NW PA. The lake should enhance the snow Saturday night into early
Sunday but amounts look to be on the light side. We then see upper
level ridging develop by Sunday evening as high pressure ridges into
the region from the southeastern US. So expect to see a warming
trend into Monday. Models are hinting that a weak area of low
pressure will move into the area Monday night into Tuesday with rain
possible.

High temperatures will be the coolest Saturday into Sunday with mid
30s to lower 40s common. Warmer on Monday with much of the region
near or above 50 degrees. If we dont have much snow cover from
Saturday night into Sunday we may see warmer conditions. Cooler on
Tuesday with increased cloud cover and the return of rain chances.
Highs should dip back into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
MVFR stratus will persist across the region through much of the
period as high pressure builds across the region. A few pockets
of IFR are possible early, mainly at KMFD, but in general MVFR
will persist. A few sites may pop to VFR during the day. Some
scattering of the low cloud deck anticipated late in the
period, mainly after 00Z. Light/variable winds through the first
half of the period will become northeast this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely through tonight. Non-VFR returns
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Good marine conditions with light winds and waves expected to
persist into Saturday as high pressure builds southeast out of
Canada across the eastern Great Lakes, then continuing off the East
Coast. A trough will cross the region over the weekend with the
potential to reach Small Craft Advisory conditions as the flow
becomes westerly on the east half of the lake by Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Kahn
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...KEC


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