423
FXUS61 KCLE 251939
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
339 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will settle south across eastern Lake Erie
tonight. High pressure will build across the region on Wednesday
and persist into Thursday. A warm front will lift north across the
area on Friday as a low pressure system develops in the Central
Plains on Saturday. This low pressure system will reach the
Midwest by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Current water vapor imagery depicts broad upper-level troughing
across the Eastern CONUS this afternoon, with the base of the
jet energy located near the lower Ohio Valley. A trough axis is
currently moving southeast across Michigan this afternoon,
extending a cold front at the surface. This cold front is
expected to arrive later this evening and overnight, ushering in
another round of chilly air across the region and perhaps some
light lake effect snow along the snowbelts of far Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

For the most part, dewpoint depressions remain fairly large this
afternoon, pushing 20 to 25 degrees in most spots. Dry low-
levels may initially prevent much in the way of surface
accumulations, though think light accumulations become more
likely as winds shift towards the northwest behind the front and
as the lake aids with low-level moisture. The 850 mb
temperatures aren`t particularly cold - around -10 to -11
degrees C, though modest lift within a saturated DGZ tonight,
particularly across inland Northwest Pennsylvania, could result
in a quick inch of snow by Wednesday morning. Do have a few
isolated spots closer to 2 inches near the PA/NY border, though
this appears to be the "high-end" scenario and unlikely for the
most part.

Nonetheless, low and mid-level moisture should be sufficient for
persistent lake effect cloudiness across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania on Wednesday which will limit highs to
the upper 30s to lower 40s. In contrast, temperatures could
reach near 50 degrees across Northwest Ohio where sunshine is
favored.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging will continue through Thursday keeping the
region dry before building off to the east throughout the day. A
shortwave will move into the region early on Friday bringing a
chance for precipitation and possibly a rumble of thunder, more so
in the southern portion of the CWA as that`s where there will be
more instability. There will be a vort max that will traverse the
area with the shortwave Friday afternoon/evening where the bulk of
the precipitation will coincide with. This is accompanied by a
surface warm front that will move south to north across the Ohio
Valley and into the Great Lakes region. Rain showers will stick
around through the overnight hours as the region will be warm air
advecting, which in turn will keep temperatures rather mild
overnight. Temperatures during the day on Thursday will be around
average as most will be in the low to mid 50s and overnight lows
will be down in the mid 30s to low 40s. On Friday, temperatures will
warm throughout the day, with areas west of I-77 being above 60 and
to the east will be in the 50s. As mentioned, temperatures won`t
drop off much at all overnight Friday as the warm front will have
push north of the region and temperatures will only drop a few
degrees at most staying in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period will be highlighted by a rainy weekend as an
upper level trough moves through the region. Rain showers will be
intermittently on Saturday with chances increasing in the evening
into Sunday and a low pressure system moves in. The highest chance
for precipitation will be on Sunday as there will be better moisture
advection from the south at that time. Precipitation should taper
off briefly before increasing again Monday morning. There`s still
some uncertainty among the models on the back end of the system
though. Both the ECMWF and the Canadian have the upper level support
moving east quicker than the GFS, which leads the GFS to lean more
towards a secondary low pressure system on Monday. With this
outcome, it could lead to additional rainfall across the region on
Monday depending on the location of the low. Most are in agreement
though that the main cold front will push across the region early
Monday morning, and with the proximity to the surface low, there
should be decent shear and some instability due to being in the warm
sector for majority of the weekend. Will need to monitor over the
coming days for the potential for more organized thunderstorms
during this time period, but as mentioned, there is still some
uncertainty regarding the setup. After the cold front passes, there
will be the potential for some lake enhanced showers across the
region with northerly flow on Monday before drying out.

Temperatures for the weekend will be quite mild with highs on
Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in
the upper 40s, low 50s. After the cold front passes, temperatures
will fall off behind with highs in the mid 40s to start next week
and lows down in the low 30s. Depending on the timing of the cold
front passage, some areas in the southeastern portion of the CWA may
reach into the low to mid 50s for highs on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with primarily VFR to
persist through the TAF period. Ceilings will fall to low-end
VFR (~3.5kft) later this evening and overnight, particularly
across the eastern half of the area as a cold front moves south
through. Highest confidence of MVFR ceilings will be at ERI
where low-level moisture is most plentiful later tonight into
Wednesday morning. Can`t rule out brief non-VFR vsby drops at
ERI from snow showers, though low confidence in coverage
precludes mention at this time.

Winds are generally out of the west to northwest this afternoon,
10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will
subside to 10 knots or less overnight and continue to favor a
northwest direction into Wednesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain showers Thursday
night through Friday. Non-VFR more likely in widespread showers
and possible thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves across the nearshore zones have diminished below
criteria so the Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire.
Winds will continue to diminish throughout the evening into the
overnight hours before veering to the northwest early Wednesday
morning and increasing to 10 to 20 knots. Winds will continue until
Wednesday evening when the subsided to below 10 knots across the
lake. By Thursday morning, winds will shift to be southwesterly at
10 to 15 knots, before backing to the southeast ahead of a warm
front that will cross the lake on Friday. Winds will be
predominantly out of the south and will increase to 10-20 knots
through the weekend ahead of a cold front that will pass early
Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...23