Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 161402

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1002 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

A cold front will move southeast across the area later today, followed
by high pressure tonight into Tuesday. Low pressure will move just
south of the area on Wednesday into Thursday. A warm front will
then lift north across the area Thursday into Friday.


9:30 AM Update...
Showers continue east of a line from Erie and Huron Counties to
Knox County this morning as the mid/upper trough axis and H5
vort max shift through. However, rapid drying and a sharp
clearing in sky cover is occurring west of that line due to
descent on the back of the vort max, and expect this clearing
to reach the PA border by 17Z with NW PA becoming clear after
18Z. Before that happens, showers will be widespread, so
expanded likely to categorical PoPs slightly this morning in NE
Ohio. Additional rainfall will only amount to a few hundredths
to up to 0.10 inches before it ends this afternoon. Isolated
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm remain possible along the
secondary cold front dropping south this evening, but lots of
mid-level dry air will keep this sparse. High temps remain on
track for today.

Previous Discussion...
Starting to see an uptick in lightning coverage across the far
east of the area near the OH/PA border in conjunction with the
deepening trough. The good news is that it appears this activity
is initiating just far enough east that it will be exiting our
area into PA over the next hour or two.

Original Discussion...
Showers with some embedded thunder continue to move east across
the area this morning. However, the severe threat remains
limited given a lack in SB/MLCAPE. Even MUCAPE remains meager,
less than 250 J/kg, though is proving sufficient for lightning
production with the deepening upper trough. Things could start
to get a little bit interesting as we head closer to sunrise
with increasing surface-based instability, although by then, the
showers and storms will be in the vicinity of the OH/PA border
and exiting the region, hence the small marginal risk area on
the new SPC SWODY1 across our far east.

Behind this morning`s precipitation, skies should quickly clear
with most areas seeing the sun by the early afternoon. A cold
front will move southeast across the area later today and could
kick off some isolated showers and/or thunderstorms. However,
going to be a lot of dry-air in the mid-levels which will limit
coverage. Highs today will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Perhaps some cooler temperatures across NW OH in the lower 60s.

High pressure will build for Tuesday with cooler, but drier,
weather anticipated. Highs will reach the mid to upper 60s
under sunny skies.


Entering an unsettled period going into midweek. Flow aloft turns
zonal and a warm front develops west to east from the central plains
region into the Ohio Valley. Mid/upper level wave will traverse west
to east simultaneously, and will see precipitation forming in the
isentropic ascent normal to the warm front. In the meantime, deep
upper low drops into the northern Rockies and will move into the
high plains Thursday, causing rapid cyclogenesis over the mid
section of the country. The impact in our area will be for the warm
front to lift north across the area eventually, but until then, the
bulk of the activity with heavier rain and thunder potential should
be south of our CWA, closer to the Ohio River.


Instability returns in the warm sector as temperatures really climb
in what will overall be the warmest day of the year for much of the
CWA, although the western zones in NW OH may not quite reach that
same mark with a few days in the upper 80s already under the belt.
Models are unclear thus far on any warm sector forcing mechanisms to
utilize the instability, along with the layer moisture availability,
so will be conservative with the POPs in the Friday period. Cold
front pushes into NW OH late Friday/Friday night, moving on the
slower side until the digging upper trough into the Great Lakes
accelerates the surface front through Saturday. Significant airmass
change behind it with temperatures likely to be 20-25 degrees cooler
by Sunday.


.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Starting to see some pockets of IFR appearing across the central
and eastern TAF sites this morning and, in conjunction with
more pessimistic ceiling guidance, have gone ahead with
prevailing IFR conditions for much of the morning at
MFD/CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI. TOL/FDY will remain VFR for the rest of the
TAF period with the other TAF sites to improve to VFR by this
afternoon at the latest.

Winds are generally from the northwest early this morning,
around 10 knots. West to northwest winds will increase behind a
cold front later this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20
to 25 knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in rain and lower ceilings late
Wednesday into Thursday. Non-VFR possible in showers and/or thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening. Non-VFR possible again late
Friday in showers and/or thunderstorms.


After this cold front currently working its way through passes, a
secondary cold front follows tonight. The result is NW winds back to
the southwest this afternoon, then veer again to the NW tonight
through the first part of Tuesday. Expect wave heights to increase
during this period with the highest winds over the eastern basin,
and pushing, but coming up short of SCA criteria. Easterly winds
less than 10kts set in for midweek, turning light and variable
Thursday, and a strong southerly component Friday in the wake of a
warm front.




NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Kahn
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