Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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101 FXUS61 KCLE 091202 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 702 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Central Great Lakes will drift east to New England today. Low pressure over the Plains will track northeast into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday, lifting a warm front north across the area. The will quickly be followed by a cold front on Sunday night with high pressure building into the Ohio Valley on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Minor adjustments were made to bring clouds in a little faster this afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. Previous discussion...The upper level ridge axis builds east across the area today while surface high pressure starting off over the Great Lakes moves to New England by tonight. For the local area this means one more day of dry conditions before widespread rain arrives on Sunday as a warm front lifts north into the area. Today will be mostly sunny with some passing cirrus and high temperatures within a couple degrees of normal in the 50s. Light easterly winds can be expected and relative humidity will mix down to below 30 percent for some inland locations this afternoon given a very dry layer of air near 850mb. For tonight and Sunday we will see low pressure track out of the Plains towards the Upper Midwest. The pressure gradient will tighten overnight and southerly flow will allow for warm advection and rising temperatures after midnight. One place this will be noticeable is in Erie PA where temperatures will climb with downsloping conditions enhancing winds with gusts of 30-35 mph possible into Sunday morning. Elsewhere clouds are expected to thicken and lower but the arrival of rain into northwest Ohio will not occur until after 2-4 AM. Rain will rapidly expand eastward during the morning on Sunday as a 45 knot low level jet lifts northeast towards Lake Erie. Rain is expected to be widespread with a good window of isentropic ascent and a northward moving warm front. Most areas are forecast to receive at least a half inch of rain with pockets of three quarters of an inch or more. Temperatures in the warm sector will be limited by the rain and strong inversion near 925mb. While southerly winds will be breezy, the coverage of rain and inversion are expected to keep the strong winds associated with the low level jet from mixing down. The best opportunity for both stronger wind gusts and late day high temperatures will be during the afternoon in northwest and north central Ohio as a deep dry-slot wraps into the system. Surface low pressure is forecast to occlude over the Upper Midwest and the cold front will just be on our doorstep by late Sunday afternoon. At that time, we may mix into the stronger winds near 2500 feet of up to 30-35 knots but will not mix into the stronger winds of 50+ knots at 7-10K feet. Highs will peak in the mid 50s in NW Pennsylvania while potentially reaching the mid 60s in NW Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Precipitation will begin to taper from west to east as the first of two cold fronts sweeps east through the area Sunday night. Not anticipating much of an air mass change with this first cold front. Breezy conditions can be expected with the passing cold front Sunday night, with 925 mb winds of 35 to 40 knots translating to brief surface wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph, especially along the lakeshore east of Cleveland. The second cold front will arrive Monday night, ushering in a cooler air mass across the region. Currently, DESI probabilities indicate a >70% chance of 850 mb temperatures falling below 0C, though a lower threshold of -4C yields much lower and brief probabilities (a glancing blow), with the coldest air confined further towards the north and northeast of the region. Nonetheless, would expect some light, scattered lake-effect/enhanced rain showers across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Monday night into Tuesday, especially with the frontal passage. Above-average temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Monday will fall back to near normal in the lower 50s behind the secondary cold front for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main feature to watch in the long term period will be the development of a low pressure system and associated upper-level trough moving west to east across the Great Lakes in the Wednesday night into Thursday timeframe. DESI cluster analysis reveals low confidence amongst ensemble guidance for the mid-week system regarding surface low pressure location and strength. However, much of the area should expect rain at some point Wednesday night into Thursday with the upper-level trough and associated surface cold front passage. Following the mid-week system, ensemble guidance is currently favoring the development of an upper-level ridge across Central CONUS which will slowly meander towards the Eastern CONUS by the end of the week. This would would result in a return to above-average temperatures in the mid to upper 50s for the end of the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... VFR conditions will be in place for most of the TAF cycle. Cirrus will increase and thicken today. Clouds will gradually lower overnight with rain arriving at TOL/FDY around 10Z Sun. Widespread rain will spread east across the area through 18Z Sun and included rain at CLE at approximately 13Z Sun. Conditions are expected to deteriorate as the rain arrives with expanding IFR ceilings and potentially low IFR conditions. Easterly winds of 5-10 knots expected today. Winds become southeasterly tonight and increase out of the south on Sunday. ERI will gust prior to 12Z with downsloping contributing to winds gusting to between 25-30 knots late tonight. A low level jet of 40-50 knots will move overhead on Sunday but did not include low level wind sheer in the forecast as the pressure gradient tightens and surface wind gusts increase. Most locations can expect southerly winds to gust to between 20-25 knots. If winds are not strong enough or gusting consistently on Sunday then low level wind sheer may need to be added to the TAFs, mainly after 12Z. Outlook...Rain will arrive on Sunday and non-VFR is possible with showers and low ceilings early Sunday morning through Monday. && .MARINE... Mainly quiet marine conditions will persist through tonight with high pressure overhead. Small Craft conditions may redevelop on Sunday ahead of a cold front, with southerly winds increasing in the 15 to 25 knot range. Small Craft headlines will be needed Sunday night through Monday night as winds shift towards the west to northwest, and eventually north, 20 to 25 knots, behind the cold front. West winds may occasionally gust between 30 and 35 knots immediately behind the cold front late Sunday evening and Sunday night, particularly across the eastern basin of Lake Erie. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Kahn