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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231745
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the Northern Plains will move slowly east
today and Wednesday. Ahead of the high, northwest flow will
bring cooler air to the region. Thursday the high will be
centered over Ohio. The high will continue to influence our
weather into the weekend as it shifts to the Mid Atlantic Coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes with this update. Just some fair weather
cumulus across portions of the area at this time. Showers have
weakened well north of the area a bit but a new more aggressive
line of showers developed over northern Lower Michigan.
Expecting activity to move into the local area later today with
the trough.

Original...Satellite shows western counties mostly clear early
this morning however in the east, there is enough leftover low
level moisture wrapping around the New England low into the area
to develop low broken stratus into northeast OH and nwrn PA off
the lake. Will need to deal with this through the early/mid
morning hours however am anticipating that mixing will thin out
the clouds later today. This afternoon through Wednesday, high
pressure will build into the region from the Northern Plains.
Aloft however, an upper trough will dig south across the Great
Lakes into the region bringing in cool air aloft. Models also
show a short wave dropping south across the lakes into the
region late this afternoon and evening. While most will remain
dry through the near term and beyond, am concerned that a few
showers will develop in the cool northwest flow. Brought chance
pops into the northwest late this afternoon and early evening
and then expanded a slight chance across the northern half of
the area for the overnight. Wednesday, kept a slight chance
north central and northeast however heights will be rising
through the day as the upper trough pulls east so am not as
confident. Highs today mostly mid 70s. Highs Wednesday upper 70s
to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough should be east of the region by Wednesday
night with high pressure building in at the surface. So the
thinking is that we should be dry through Thursday evening. This
is when another weak upper level trough will move through the
NW flow and maybe bring a few showers across the lake to around
Erie. The region will then be between ripples of jet energy on
Friday with dry conditions anticipated.

Warmer on Thursday with highs back to around 80. The warming
trend continues into Friday with all locations into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The usual uncertainty arrives for the long term period with a
fairly fast flow across the northern portion of the US. An upper
level trough with its associated cold front eventually makes
into the the central Great Lakes Sunday night. The uncertainty
is what jet energy will be ejected out ahead of the trough both
Saturday and Sunday afternoon`s. There could end up being some
isolated/scattered thunderstorms but we have time to monitor
this evolution. Better chances for rain look to arrive Monday
night into Tuesday.

The region should continue to see temperatures near to slightly
above seasonal averages through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A trough of low pressure will move south across the area later
this afternoon into tonight. There will be a chance for some
showers this afternoon into the evening at the northern TAF
sites. Further south away from the lake there will be a very
minimal chance at best. Otherwise, expecting VFR conditions
through the forecast period. Winds will diminish from the north
to northwest this evening and increase slightly tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds remain out of the north at 15 to 25 knots across much of
the lake. The strongest winds across the central portion of the
lake. Winds look as if they will be slow to decrease and with
the fairly long northerly fetch we believe waves will remain
elevated into early afternoon from The Islands to Conneaut.
Elsewhere we will allow the small craft advisory continue until
7 am.

An upper level trough will cross the region this evening into
the overnight with showers expected with it. The cooler air in
its wake will also help to increase the instability over the
lake with additional showers possible into Wednesday morning.
Any of these showers will have the potential of producing water
spouts so have added this mention to the forecast for Tonight
into Wednesday morning. May have to watch for a small window of
small craft advisory conditions in the wake of the trough as
waves attempt to build to 4 feet or higher for a few hours. Will
allow later shift to look at this potential.

The northerly winds decrease Wednesday night as high pressure
takes control of the region. This will allow winds to gradually
shift around to the southwest as the area of high pressure moves
to the southeast of the lake. A decent lake breeze should set
up on Thursday. The longer southwesterly fetch combined with the
onshore flow in the nearshore waters may produce a sneaky short
term small craft advisory for the building waves Thursday
afternoon into the early evening. Winds should become southerly
Thursday night and remain that way into Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...MM