Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 210305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1105 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Low pressure will linger in south central Ohio overnight as a
disturbance aloft moves across the area. The low will dissipate
on Wednesday as a strong storm system moves northeast from the
mid Atlantic coast. High pressure will build into the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes region Wednesday night through Friday.


Snow continues to expand across the area as we overcome low level
dry air.  A plume of mid-level theta-e advection has been feeding in
from the east and that has been where an arc of snow has set up from
near Findlay northeast towards Huron and southern Lorain Counties.
The best snow is expected to fall across northwest Ohio through
early Wednesday morning. The axis of better snowfall then
become re-focused farther to the east as the upper level low
curls eastward through the Ohio Valley and enhances lift
over Northeast Ohio. Early runs of the Nam had focused a swath
of higher snowfall totals to the north from Huron-Medina-
Trumbull Counties. The 00Z/21 run has smoothed this higher area
out and is much more in line with other model guidance that
gives most areas .2 to .5 qpf. Considered expanding the Advisory
one more row of counties north where snowfall totals may still
reach the 2 to 4 inch range. Given the slow start to
accumulating snow this evening and warm pavement temperatures,
decided to hold off. Still may see some pretty good snowfall
rates across eastern areas during the first part of the morning

Previous discussion...
Have added Hancock, Crawford and Wyandot counties to the
advisory. So far today, dry air from the northeast has
dominated conditions across the region, eroding clouds and
halting the advance of the precip which was about to move in
from the south this morning before mostly evaporating. For the
evening and overnight however, believe the precip makes it
further north. Models show a second, stronger upper wave which
will move into the lower Ohio valley from srn Indiana/north
central KY. Precip is expanding on radar with this feature. As
it moves into the region it become negatively tilted with upper
divergence/lift reaching into the southern/southwestern
counties. Expecting snow to spread north/northeast into the area
after 00Z-02Z time frame and filling in across most of the area
through the night. Have best snow totals now around 4.5 inches
in the Marion/Wyandot/Crawford county region and 3 to 4 inches
east across the southern tier. There should be sharp cutoff on
the north side. Will have 1 to 2 inches in Cuyahoga county an
inch or less Toledo area and no snow at Erie. For Wednesday will
allow snow to linger early but as the surface low in southern
OH dissipates and flow becomes dominated by the coastal low,
expect moisture to be flushed south fairly quickly with dry air
moving in from the north. Expect dry conditions Wednesday night.


By Thursday the east coast low will be pulling further offshore
and high pressure will be attempting to take control of our
local weather. The exception will be a few weak troughs in the
flow. One on Friday may bring a few flurries to northwest PA.
But for now will keep both Thursday and Friday dry. Even
Saturday looks to be dry with high pressure keeping a grip on
northern OH/nw PA. This shunts the next system south again. Will
keep low chance PoPs across the far southwest counties
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to fall short of normals.
With the cool high predominately in place, we will keep highs
confined to the upper 30s/near 40 each day. Night lows will be
chilly in the 20s with some upper teens.


A surface low will be cutting east across the Tennessee Valley
Saturday night. There is still uncertainty with how far north
precipitation associated with this low will make it, but models
continue to move farther and farther south. Have cut back on the
northern extent of precipitation, and this trend may continue.

Sunday through Monday will feature an amplified ridge of high
pressure over the area with dry conditions and temperatures slightly
below normal Sunday and rising to near normal for Monday afternoon.
A lot of uncertainty remains for Monday night through Tuesday as the
ECMWF has the ridge of high pressure staying strong while the GFS
breaks down the ridge and moves in a weak cold front with


.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Precipitation showing up on radar has been slow to reach the
ground thus far due to dry air in the low levels, but expecting
that to change rapidly over the next several hours. Snow will
fill in across the area as an upper level low pressure system
moves through the Ohio Valley overnight. MVFR ceilings will
quickly expand northward this evening. Widespread snow is
expected at all terminals except ERI and possibly TOL. The other
terminals will experience IFR conditions in snow, especially in
the 5-12Z window. Snow will gradually taper off from the north
on Wednesday morning. Most sites expected to be VFR again by

Northeast winds will remain breezy overnight, especially
downwind of Lake Erie at TOL/FDY/CLE/ERI where gusts of 20-25
knots will be possible. Winds will gradually back to northerly
on Wednesday with breezy conditions continuing into the

.Outlook...Non-VFR may linger southern terminals into mid
afternoon Wednesday.


Water levels on the Western Basin are already high and are
expected to remain that way into Wednesday morning. Will go with
a lakeshore flood warning for Ottawa and Lucas counties.

Small craft advisory will remain in effect through Wednesday morning
in the western basin and through Wednesday afternoon over the rest
of the lake.  Winds are expected to remain gusty across the lake
today and will increase and approach gales for about 6 hours
tonight.  Coordinated with Toronto and Buffalo an agreed to hold off
on issuing gale warnings at this time since gale force winds will be
brief.  Expecting winds to gradually weaken Wednesday across the
lake to allow small craft advisory to expire on schedule.  Winds
will gradually diminish with time to around 10 knots by Friday and
Saturday. No significant winds expected beyond Wednesday.


OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ017-
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ003-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ144>149.


SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Mottice
MARINE...Oudeman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.