Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260707
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
307 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east of the local area by midday. High
pressure will move from the Plains today to the eastern Great
Lakes tonight. Another low pressure system will move northeast
to James Bay by Thursday night forcing a cold front east across
the area Friday. High pressure will build back over the area
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As expected showers with embedded thunder have blossomed over
the area overnight. The surface cold front responsible for this
activity is just now crossing into western Ohio. The front
should be east of the local area by midday. The remaining precip
will quickly end from west to east today. By 12z most locations
west of I-71 should be dry. The threat for severe weather has
also ended. Will need to keep high pops early today but by 18z
even the eastern end of the area will be dry. Will not mention
any thunder after 12z. This afternoon through Thursday period
will be quiet as high pressure builds over the area from the
southwest. Skies will be slow to clear in the cold air advection
behind the front but some sunshine is possible by late today in
the west. It will be crisp night with the coolest temperatures
of the season so far. Thursday will be fall like as well with
cumulus developing by midday and cool temperatures again
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upper level troughing will slide east across Canada and the
northern tier states of the lower 48 Thursday night into Friday.
Ridging will begin to build into the western United States by
Saturday and extend east toward the western Great Lakes.  Surface
low pressure will move east through central Canada forcing a cold
front east across the local area Friday.  Strong high pressure in
response to west coast upper level ridge will build east across the
area Saturday and Saturday night.  Cold air advection in the wake of
the cold front and on the east side of the high pressure center will
cause some lake effect to develop Friday night into Saturday.  Will
mention slight chance for showers over the east this time.
Otherwise, as high pressure builds east, fair weather will return.
Warm air advection will take place ahead of the cold front Friday
followed by the cold air advection through the rest of the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level ridge begins to build north out of the Gulf of Mexico
through this forecast period.  This will allow surface high pressure
to build east to the Atlantic Coast by Monday.  A warm front will
lift north across the local area Sunday into Sunday night.  Moisture
is expected to stream in from the west out of southern Canada but
the bulk of it is expected to remain north of the area.  This will
limit the threat for showers to the northern tier Sunday and Sunday
night.  The warm front will become nearly stationary and then slip
back south across the northern tier counties by Monday.  This will
increase the threat for showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday.  The
Gulf of Mexico is expected to open up again and send a surge of
moisture back north toward the area by Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night.

A gradual warming trend is expected through the period as the high
shifts well east of the area and warm air advection returns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Starting to see an expansion in the precip coverage and this
trend will continue the next few hours. Some embedded thunder is
possible but most of the precip overnight will just be showers.
The surface cold front responsible for this activity is just
about to the OH border and is expected to be east of the area by
midday. Widespread MVFR conditions will develop overnight with a
period of IFR cigs also possible...especially inland areas. Cigs
will gradually lift from west to east during the daylight hours
with much of the area VFR by 18z. Skies will likely SCT out at
some point in the west. S to SW flow gusting to around 20 knots
will become NW behind the cold front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR across NE OH/NW PA Wednesday night into
Thursday. Some non-VFR possible Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will push east across the lake this morning shifting
winds around to a northwest direction for this afternoon at around
15 knots sustained.  Will expand beach hazards and small craft
advisory further west to the islands. Winds will increase out of the
northwest behind the front. However, a fairly rapid decrease in the
winds will take place tonight as high pressure builds east toward
the local area. Light and variable winds are expected Thursday
morning but will begin to increase out of the southwest by Thursday
night on the back side of the high pressure. A cold front will move
east across the lake Friday and this will shift winds around to the
northwest again by Friday evening and Friday night. There is the
possibility that a small craft advisory will be needed again Friday.
Winds become light and variable Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Lombardy


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