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552
FXUS61 KCLE 170449
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1149 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure near Quebec extends down over the eastern Great
Lakes tonight. This high pressure will weaken across the area
Sunday as low pressure moves into the western Great Lakes
region. Monday, the low will continue slowly east across the
Great Lakes. A weak front will move across the area Monday
night. High pressure will build back in for the middle of the
week. A stronger low pressure system may impact the region by
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No big changes with this mid evening update. Temperatures are
the biggest concern with the clear skies and low dewpoints. Have
continued the previous forecast of temperatures on the low end
of guidance. Previous discussion follows.

High pressure near Quebec will extend down into the upper Ohio
River Valley tonight. We will continue to see mostly clear skies
and winds will relax somewhat after sunset this evening.
Surface dewpoints this afternoon were hovering in the upper
teens which will allow overnight temperatures to fall quickly
after sunset and reach the lower 20s for most locations away
from the lakeshore. A light southerly wind returns on Sunday
afternoon along with morning sunshine gradually becoming dull
sunshine by the afternoon with high and mid level cloudiness
increasing. Afternoon temperatures will be about 5 to 8 degrees
milder in the middle 40s. The next upper level trough will move
across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley Sunday night.
Moisture will be very limited and no precip is expected through
Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level elongated trough will be moving across the Great
Lakes on Monday and working its way up to the New England coast by
Tuesday afternoon. This system won`t have much moisture with it,
resulting in mainly widespread cloud cover and some rain showers
over northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Monday afternoon
transitioning to snow showers Monday night. Another moisture-starved
upper level trough will swing through again Tuesday and Tuesday
night, bringing the chance for rain Tuesday afternoon and a
rain/snow mix Tuesday night. Temperatures will continue to remain
below average through this period with highs in the low 40s and lows
in the low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft will persist on Wednesday allowing for lake
effect clouds and rain showers to persist during the day on
Wednesday before diminishing after sunset. Our next system comes in
the form of a deep upper level trough at some point on Thursday or
Friday. There is a fair amount of agreement in a deep upper level
trough producing widespread rain on Thursday and Thursday night with
above normal temperatures on Thursday, following by much colder air
moving in Thursday night into Friday. At this point, precipitation
type should be all rain with some rain/snow mixed in late Thursday
night into Friday morning behind the cold front. Lake effect
rain/snow seems likely at least on Friday and Friday night with
uncertainty in precipitation type, and duration of lake effect
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure will continue across northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania into Sunday. Sunday afternoon expect mid and high
clouds to increase from the west around and after 18z as
moisture increases ahead of approaching system. Conditions will
however remain VFR through the period.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with scattered light rain and snow
showers Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expire given latest
observations. Easterly winds will veer to southeasterly and
weaken further overnight tonight. This trend in winds will allow
waves to lower overnight tonight. Winds remain relatively weak
on Sunday and Monday as a weak pressure gradient persists over
Lake Erie. A very weak cold front moves east across Lake Erie on
Monday evening allowing winds to shift to out of the west.
Westerly winds persist through Wednesday night though winds
should remain below 20 knots as weak high pressure affects Lake
Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Jaszka/Saunders