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000
FXUS61 KCLE 232317
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
617 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east through the area this afternoon and
this evening with rain transitioning to snow overnight. A series
of storm systems will impact the region through at least early
next week...bringing a few shots of snow to the area.
Otherwise...a significant cooling trend will take place across
the area...with temperatures expected to remain at or below
freezing through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Update...Adjusted hourly temps but otherwise no big changes.

Original...A cold front is just now entering western Ohio and
is expected to travel quickly east through the state into NW PA
by tonight. Light to moderate rain will be present ahead of the
front...with scattered showers behind the front. In the past 12
hours...widespread 0.75 of an inch to an inch of rain was
reported...with a few isolated areas reporting 1.25 to 1.5
inches of rain. This in combination with temperatures in the mid
40s is resulting in a significant melting of the snow
pack...adding to the total water on the ground. A flood watch
remains in effect until 4 am Thursday with a few area rivers
expected to reach minor flood stage and reports of difficult
driving conditions due to ponding of water on roadways. Expect
another few hundredths of an inch of rain generally west of I-71
and between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of rain east of there through
the evening hours.

Rain will transition to snow from west to east starting this
evening...with complete snow by tomorrow morning. With cold air
filtering into the area behind the cold front expect a
significant cooling trend...with daytime high temperatures in
the upper 20s tomorrow and into the teens and single digits late
Thursday night.

Lastly...as the colder air filters into the area...lake effect
snow will be possible across the primary snow belt of
northeastern Ohio and NW PA. The short term models are in pretty
good agreement that things will get going late Thursday
afternoon into the evening hours...continuing into at least
Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A series of fast moving
clipper systems will move through the forecast area during the
midterm period. On Friday, a clipper will be exiting the
forecast area. 850mb temperatures behind the system will range
from -15 to -20C. The 12Z run of the GFS shows an upper level
short wave rotating across the northern part of the forecast
area by Friday evening. All the ingredients indicate the
potential for lake effect snow Friday through Friday night. The
synoptic moisture is fairly limited so this may be a limiting
factor with accumulations. Another system will quickly follow on
Saturday bringing another shot of light snow to the area.
Neither of the systems on Friday or Saturday appear to be of
long duration and both should be quick hitting events. On
Sunday, moisture will begin to stream over the forecast area in
advance of a more aggressive clipper system. Warm air advection
in advance of this system will bring light precipitation over
most of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A moderately strong clipper system will approach the region Sunday
night through Monday night.  The models are showing an area of low
pressure moving across Lake Erie Monday night dragging a cold front
with it.  This system is forecast to have more moisture associated
with it compared to the systems impacting the region over the
weekend. The models also show a tongue of warmer air surging in
advance of the system.  This may produce enough warm air to
transition some of the snow to mixed precipitation or rain briefly.
Cold air will surge behind this system bringing 850mb temperatures
back into the -15 to -20C range.  Lake effect snow will occur over
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday Night into
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Mainly IFR and MVFR condition expected through the period.
Terminals central and east will continue to see rain into the
overnight hours mixing with and then changing to snow behind a
cold front sweeping east through the region. Most terminals
will experience a few hours of ice pellets...freezing rain...and
snow during this transition period. MVFR expected Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Occasional non-VFR Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move across the lake this evening.
Winds will shift to the northwest tonight and continue through
Thursday.  A series of fast moving weak clipper systems will move
across the lake through the end of the week.  A general westerly
flow will occur with these systems with occasional shifts to a
southwest or northwest direction.  A stronger system will approach
the lake for the start of next week.  Winds will shift to an
easterly direction Sunday night into Monday in advance of this
system.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 4 AM EST Thursday for OHZ009>014-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Flood Watch until 4 AM EST Thursday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Riley
NEAR TERM...TK/Riley
SHORT TERM...Garnet
LONG TERM...Garnet/Oudeman
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Garnet