


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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120 FXUS61 KCLE 131136 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 736 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly move across the region from the northwest to the east today through Monday morning and will be slow to exit on Monday. High pressure builds in briefly Monday evening through Tuesday before a warm front crosses the region on Wednesday. Low pressure and accompanying cold front will cross the region Friday with ridging building in behind for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper level troughing continues to move into the Great Lakes region through Sunday as a surface low pressure system and cold front move in from the northwest throughout the day into Monday. There are a few showers located over Eastern Michigan into Ontario that are associated with and upper level shortwave and weak vort max. This feature will continue to push eastward across Lake Erie through early morning Sunday so an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible over the lake and possibly the eastern lakeshore counties. PoPs do increase into the afternoon for points east of I-71, with higher chances in the far eastern Ohio counties and Northwestern Pennsylvania. These chances should diminish come nightfall as the shortwave would have moved east of the region. The cold front will be trailing behind the shortwave Sunday night into Monday. PoP chances are fairly low across much of Northwestern Ohio during the early morning hours but will pick up as the front moved eastward into eastern Ohio with low severe weather potential across the region. The front will become a quasi-stationary boundary during this time which influences the 30-40% PoPs for the eastern and southern portions of the CWA Monday afternoon. As the upper level trough pushes through it will bring the front with it on Monday, there may be some residual showers and thunderstorms in the far eastern counties during the evening. Temperatures today and Monday will be cooler than the past few days with highs in the mid 80s an overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Ridging will build in with weak surface high pressure Monday night and give a fairly quiet first couple of days for the short term. Upper level ridging will be situated to the southeast of the region allowing for southwesterly flow. This should raise temperatures and dew points into the upper 80s and upper 60s respectively for Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, a warm front will cross the region late Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a low pressure system deepening over the Upper Mississippi Valley. There will be a chance for precipitation and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening with this feature, though don`t expect anything more than general thunderstorms due to lack of instability. Wednesday, we will be well within the warm sector so there will be increased chances for PoPs, but with little model agreement, there is little confidence in the details. Temperatures will be warmer Tuesday and Wednesday with high in the upper 80s and low 90s for some areas. Overnight lows will be mild as well in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Unsettled weather continues into the long term with the approaching low pressure and upper level trough. The cold front should cross the region Friday, though there isn`t much agreement on timing with the models, so decided to continue the likely wording for PoPs. There will be lingering PoPs into Friday as the front exits to the east. Rain chances will decrease into the weekend and Saturday looks to be dry as high pressure and ridging builds in. Thursday will continue the warming trend from the short term with highs in the mid 80s. Friday and Saturday will be cooler in the low 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... A mix of mid-level clouds and low stratus is observed, with a small patch of very low stratus and fog located in central Ohio. Non-VFR clouds should dissipate over the next few hours. Afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, mainly east of I-77 but uncertainty continues to remains with coverage and timing, although forecast data has been trending lower for storm coverage this afternoon. Continued to maintain VCSH. By very late tonight into Monday morning, an area of light rain moves across the area. This is generally expected to be VFR, though there could be brief periods of MVFR and even IFR is any embedded heavier showers or storms are able to develop. Outlook...Non-VFR with patchy fog or low ceilings will be possible Monday night, especially for inland areas away from Lake Erie. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds of 5-15 knots will continue this morning, with stronger winds generally in the western basin of Lake Erie. It`s possible there could be a few spots that briefly approach 20 knots at times through sunrise. A cold front moves east across the lake later today, with winds becoming west tonight, and then west-northwest tonight and Monday. These winds should generally be less than 10 knots, although winds near 15 knots could be around 15 knots in the western basin tonight and then again late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon with 2-3 ft waves possible. Winds and waves weaken to less than 10 knots across the board as high pressure builds across the region Monday night and Tuesday, and then to the Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday. South to southwest winds develop on Wednesday, with stronger winds around 15 knots expected Thursday, with winds to 20 knots possible. A cold front crosses the lake Thursday night, with northwest winds around 15 knots likely producing 2-4 ft waves at times. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...23 NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM...23 AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Saunders