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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261101
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
701 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly push south across the area late this
afternoon, settling south of the area by Monday morning. The
front will remain between the southern Great Lakes and Ohio
valley through the day Monday before lifting north through the
area Monday night into Tuesday, remaining north of the area
through midweek. An unsettled weather pattern will remain over
the region much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Area of precip working into the area from the west has led to
fairly drastic changes with this forecast update. Went near 100%
pops for the next couple of hours as this area of precip moves
east across the area. Expecting a slow diminish of the overall
intensity, with the best chances for stronger convection
confined to areas south of US-30 through about 10 AM. Overall,
not much has change with the latest forecast thinking for this
afternoon, however the extent of this precip and upstream radar
returns in IN owe to higher confidence in slower/lesser
destabilization through the afternoon, with extensive mid level
cloud shield extending back to IA/MO.

Original discussion...
Immediate focus this morning is upstream convection across IN
moving eastward towards western OH. This activity, associated
with an MCV in a broad westerly mid level flow regime and in the
vicinity of the right entrance region of a northward retreating
upper jet streak, is persisting eastward with a few severe wind
reports in far western IN. However, hi-res guidance suggests
this activity to slowly diminish in intensity as it moves into
an increasingly stable environment. This should result in more
disorganized/scattered shower and thunder activity moving into
the southwest part of the area this morning, quickly moving
eastward across the area through midday. The highest pops will
be across the southwest part of the forecast area, but the more
organized storm activity and potential for stronger convection
should dive south of the forecast area towards central/southern
OH where better instability resides.

A stronger MCV/mid level energy will eject eastward out of the
Mississippi valley this morning and move through
central/southern OH this afternoon. There should be a bit of a
lull in precip activity late morning/midday through mid
afternoon, which will allow for weak/modest destabilization
ahead of a southward advancing cold front approaching the area.
500 mb jet max will streak eastward through the southern Great
Lakes this afternoon, allowing for good deep layer bulk shear.
The main limiting factor to severe thunderstorm potential
across the area this afternoon is the amount of instability
realized with the morning convective cluster delaying/minimizing
destabilization. There is also an incoherent surface forcing
mechanism with the synoptic surface front/best low level
convergence well north of the area during this time. However,
expect scattered storms to fire, which pose a limited severe
thunderstorm risk across the area. Poor mid level lapse rates
will also be entrenched across the region. Agree with the early
morning SPC Day 1 Outlook with the best severe chances south of
the area today where better low level lapse rates, instability,
and surface forcing with the probable outflow boundary from the
morning convection coincide. Kept pops generally in the chance
range for the area, but opted for some low likely pops south,
especially this afternoon. Precip chances diminish quickly after
03Z, with the surface front pushing south of the area by 06Z-
09Z. Monday will be dry across the area through late afternoon
with brief ridging drifting across the area before the frontal
boundary returns northeast towards the area by Monday night.

For temperatures today, went close to the higher side of
guidance, with upper 70s to around 80 for most of the area. Lows
tonight will be in the low 50s to low 60s. Highs Monday will be
int he low 70s near the lake to mid/upper 70s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front will be returning to northern Ohio by Monday evening with
increasing chances of showers/thunderstorms. The frontal boundary
will then remain across the region with additional chances of
showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday night. May need to watch for
some locally heavy rainfall with the periods of rain moving across
the region with each ripple of low pressure in the middle level
flow. The strongest thunderstorms may occur on Tuesday if the model
timing is correct. Trying to time these ripples will be difficult
with each model handling them differently.

Tuesday and Wednesday should see highs range from the mid 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models indicate that a stronger cold front will sweep across the
area on Thursday with a round of stronger thunderstorms possible.
High pressure then builds into the central Great Lakes by Friday
morning and may persist into Saturday. So a couple days with no
mention of showers/thunderstorms seems like the forecast to go with
for now. Highs through the long term should be very close to
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
An area of SHRA/TSRA will drift east across the area this
morning, with some intermittent reductions to MVFR and possibly
IFR. The best thunder threat after 12Z through 16Z will be
across KMFD and KCAK. A mid level wave tracks across the region
this afternoon/evening as a cold front tracks south into the
area. This has a chance to produce additional scattered TSRA
however too uncertain at this point for pinning down the exact
area, timing and coverage of any storms. Will opt for VCTS
mentions at the sites with highest confidence in TSRA at this
point. Threat for TSRA/SHRA should end around or shortly after
the 00Z-03Z timeframe. Westerly winds will persist into the
afternoon, but will veer more northerly by this evening as the
front moves through, but winds will be light at this point.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible for periods of time through Thursday,
primarily centered around rounds of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front will cross the lake by the afternoon then stall across
southern Ohio overnight. Strongest winds will be just ahead of the
front from the southwest/west then shift around to the east
overnight as high pressure moves east across the central Great Lakes
reaching western Quebec by Monday morning. A frontal boundary will
then meander near Lake Erie Monday through Wednesday. Southwesterly
winds may increase to around 15 knots on Wednesday which may build
waves to 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Greenawalt