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000
FXUS61 KCLE 090847
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
447 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered west of Lake Michigan will move southeast
today and settle over the Ohio River for Saturday before moving
off the East Coast. Low pressure will organize over the central
United States on Sunday and move into the region for early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Today`s forecast will be fairly similar to yesterday with high
pressure over the western Great Lakes moving southeast and the
upper low continuing to spin over the New England states. Some
of the haze/smoke resulting from the western Quebec wildfires
will continue to pose some intermittent visibility issues
through early evening but the trajectory of the main plumes of
smoke should be east of the area and have not continued the haze
mention for tonight or Saturday. As for non-fire weather, some
mid- level clouds across the region will continue in and out of
the area this morning with perhaps a higher ceiling from some of
the residual smoke. A shortwave on the back side of the upper
low will pivot through the far eastern forecast area and with
some moisture in the region, there could be some showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder if there can be some breaks in the
clouds and haze for some better instability. Rain yesterday was
rather paltry and there isn`t too much different today so have
15-35 percent PoPs for mainly PA as the best chances may be
further east. Some ridging will build into the region and nudge
the upper low east and have a dry forecast for tonight and
Saturday. Temperatures will remain below normal with the clouds
and haze to limit insolation today. With a relatively clear
forecast, temperatures will be closer to normal for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Current odds favor fair weather Saturday night as stabilizing high
pressure at the surface and aloft exits E`ward toward New England.
Lows should settle into the 50`s to lower 60`s. Periods of rain are
expected Sunday through Monday night as a deep trough aloft
overspreads the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley from the
northwest and the embedded mid- to upper-level low wobbles SE`ward
from near Lake Superior toward Lake Huron. At the surface,
associated troughing overspreads our CWA from the west and north. A
frontal low should develop NE`ward from the Mid MS Valley toward
western Lake Erie Sunday through Sunday night as the front
approaches generally from the west. The cold front should then sweep
E`ward across Lake Erie on Monday as the surface low moves farther
NE`ward toward Lake Ontario. By Monday night, this surface low
should begin to retrograde toward Lake Huron as it becomes
vertically-stacked with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low.
Pre-frontal isentropic ascent aloft tapping into abundant moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico and moist low-level convergence along the
cold front will be the main forcing mechanisms for ascent and rain
generation Sunday through Monday. These lifting mechanisms may
release sufficient instability, including elevated CAPE, for
periodic thunderstorm development. Rain chances are lower Monday
night, when the low pressure system`s dry slot may overspread our
region. A cooler and more stable air mass by this time should
preclude the development of additional thunderstorms. Widespread
rainfall of about a half inch to one inch is forecast during the
short-term period. This beneficial rainfall should provide at least
minor relief from the ongoing drought.

Late afternoon highs should reach the 70`s to lower 80`s on Sunday
as synoptic scale net low-level WAA precedes the cold front. The
coolest highs are forecast within several miles of Lake Erie since
sufficient daytime heating of surrounding land and a relatively-weak
SE`erly synoptic scale MSLP gradient should permit lake breeze
development with limited inland extent during the late morning
through early evening. Overnight lows Sunday night should reach the
50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak. Abundant cloud cover and
eventual low-level CAA behind the cold front will contribute to
cooler weather Monday through Monday night. Daytime highs should
reach the upper 60`s to lower 70`s and be followed by overnight lows
reaching the upper 40`s to mid 50`s around daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cyclonic W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft is forecast Tuesday through
Thursday as the vertically-stacked low eventually devolves into the
trough at the surface and aloft that should linger over the Great
Lakes and Upper OH Valley. Shortwave disturbances embedded in the
flow aloft should help maintain net surface troughing across our
CWA. Periods of rain showers are expected via moist low-level
convergence along surface trough axes accompanying each shortwave
disturbance. These lifting mechanisms may release enough boundary
layer CAPE for isolated thunderstorm development, especially each
afternoon through early evening given the typical diurnal cycle in
surface air temperatures and boundary layer instability. Daytime
highs in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s on Tuesday should moderate to
mainly the 70`s to lower 80`s on Wednesday through Thursday.
Overnight lows should reach the 50`s Tuesday and Wednesday nights,
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are present across the region this morning with
some mid level clouds around 10 kft overhead. The haze from the
Canadian wildfires has mixed out quite a bit with just some haze
lingering in urban areas but most ASOSs are 8-10 miles with no
issues. Believe there could be some return toward 5-6 SM vsby
with sunrise and have some mentions, especially north and east.
The trajectory of the smoke in Canada will favor east of the
airspace for Friday and have removed the haze for much of the
later half of the TAFs and have a mix of mid and high clouds
with VFR conditions across the area. Winds will be generally
northerly at 10 knots or less.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and storms on Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to be variable in direction today through
Saturday before becoming southerly Saturday night as a ridge affects
Lake Erie and the parent high pressure center moves from the Upper
Midwest toward Atlantic waters near North Carolina. Wind speeds are
expected to be about 5 to 15 knots as waves trend 3 feet or less.
Primarily southerly to easterly winds of 10 to 20 knots are forecast
on Lake Erie Sunday through Sunday night as the ridge exits
eastward, a front approaches from the west, and a frontal low
develops northeastward from the Mid MS Valley toward western Lake
Erie. Waves as large as 2 to 4 feet are expected. Marginal Small
Craft Advisory conditions are forecast at this point.

A trough lingers over Lake Erie Monday through Tuesday as the
aforementioned low meanders in vicinity of the eastern Great Lakes
and Lake Huron. The cold front trailing this low should sweep
eastward across Lake Erie on Monday. Predominantly southerly winds
of about 10 to 20 knots shift to westerly on Monday with the cold
front passage. Westerly to southwesterly winds of about 10 to 20
knots are then forecast Monday night through Tuesday. Waves of 2 to
4 feet with occasional 5 footers are forecast, especially east of
The Islands. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Jaszka