Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
857
FOPA12 PHFO 162054
PWSCP2
TROPICAL STORM LALA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LALA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
21N 158W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
21N 158W 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARKING SANDS 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
HANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HANA 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
HANA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HONOLULU 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LIHUE 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
20N 160W 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
NIIHAU 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
NIIHAU 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
21N 160W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
21N 160W 50 40 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
21N 160W 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NIHOA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
22N 164W 34 X 52(52) 15(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
22N 164W 50 X 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
22N 164W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NECKER 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 165W 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
20N 165W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 1(22) X(22)
20N 170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
20N 170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
25N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
MARO REEF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 24(60)
25N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24)
25N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
30N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
LAYSAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11)
LISIANSKI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31)
LISIANSKI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
LISIANSKI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PEARL/HERMES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19)
PEARL/HERMES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PEARL/HERMES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MIDWAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16)
MIDWAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MIDWAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
KURE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART