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WTPA44 PHFO 070849
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

In satellite imagery, Lowell remains well organized with a
well-defined eye and cooling cloud tops in the eyewall. However,
reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the storm has multiple concentric wind maxima around the eye
and that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 950 mb.  The
maximum 700-mb flight-level winds reported by the plane were 107 kt
east of the center. Based on the aircraft reports, the initial
intensity is set at 100 kt.

The initial motion is now north-northeastward or 020/8 kt. The
synoptic reasoning of the first part of the forecast track is
unchanged from the previous advisory. A cutoff mid- to upper-level
low sliding west-southwest north of Hawaii is beginning to capture
Lowell, and this, combined with mid-level ridging to the
hurricane`s southeast should generally impart a faster north-
northeastward to northward motion to the storm for the next 24-48 h.
The track guidance envelope has shifted a little farther to the
east, and the first 36 h or so of the new forecast track has been
again nudged eastward. After 48 h, the cut-off low is forecast to
weaken and lift out, with Lowell turning westward as a ridge builds
to the north. This portion of the forecast track lies a little
south of the previous forecast.

Lowell is starting to encounter increasing shear, and this, combined
with gradually cooling sea surface temperatures along the forecast
track, should cause weakening. However, Lowell is likely to remain a
hurricane until after its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands.
After passing Hawaii, the intensity forecast becomes more uncertain,
as the global models are in poor agreement on how the cyclone may
interact with one or more new mid- to upper-level troughs that are
forecast to form nearby. For now, this part of the intensity
forecast is little changed from the previous forecast.

Given another eastward shift in the track guidance and the forecast
close approach of hurricane-force winds to Niihau, a Hurricane
Warning has been issued for Kauai County.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell`s center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County
late Monday into early Tuesday. A Hurricane Warning is now in
effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, where
hurricane conditions are possible are expected to begin Monday
afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. Enhanced wind gusts
are possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.

2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will
increase in coverage over the Hawaiian Islands tonight and continue
through Wednesday. This may produce significant flash flooding and
mudslides, especially across Kauai county and portions of the Big
Island.

3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could produce coastal flooding and inundation of
low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 16.5N 163.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 18.3N 162.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 21.0N 161.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 23.8N 161.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 26.0N 161.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 27.3N 162.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 27.7N 165.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 27.4N 169.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 27.7N 171.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven