228
FXUS64 KCRP 051140
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
540 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Low to medium rain chances (20-50%) today

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances continue across South Texas
today as southwesterly flow aloft brings a mid to upper level
disturbance over the region. Across inland portions of the CWA, a
saturated layer at around 600-500 mb with drier low levels has
resulted in higher ceilings and virga overnight. Along the coast,
isentropic lift continues to be the driving factor. This general
pattern is forecast to continue today, while overrunning becomes
more efficient over the Victoria Crossroads through morning, and
then over the marine zones tonight. By Saturday, anticipate drier
conditions inland as moisture drops below normal levels. Another
frontal boundary is progged to move in on Sunday with high
pressure settling behind it and maintaining these dry conditions
through most of the next week.

Temperatures today will struggle to get out of the 50s. Much warmer
temperatures can then be expected over the weekend (highs in the
upper 60s to low 80s), followed by cooler temperatures early next
week behind Sunday`s front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions currently prevail across South Texas. Upper-level
clouds are blocking satellite from being able to detect lower
level ceilings, but based on AWOS/ASOS stations, MVFR ceilings are
primarily focused right along the coast. Therefore kept the
chances for MVFR ceilings to advect inland over CRP, but much less
confident farther inland. There will be low chances of rain
through this morning, then diminish through the afternoon. MVFR
ceilings may creep inland over coastal sites (CRP/ALI) by the end
of the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A fresh to strong northerly flow continues through the morning
hours today before weakening to a moderate breeze by the
afternoon. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM.
Winds are forecast to weaken to gentle to moderate heading into
the weekend, with the wind direction varying. Rain chances today
will increase to medium to high (60-70%) and persist through
Saturday morning. Dry conditions will then develop later in the
weekend as another frontal boundary moves through, with these
conditions continuing into next week. Winds are forecast to
strengthen to a strong to near gale breeze Monday next week
likely requiring another Advisory.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected through Saturday.
Winds will remain light to moderate inland, predominately out of the
north to northeast. Minimum relative humidity values will dip below
30% due to a passing cold front on Sunday, however due to low ERC
and winds, confidence is low for any elevated fire weather
conditions. Monday is shaping to be breezier with relative humidity
values also below 30%, therefore, we will have to monitor conditions
for any fire weather concerns. Low to medium rain chances continue
today, with greatest chances over the Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    57  51  72  57 /  50  20  10   0
Victoria          54  46  71  52 /  40  10   0   0
Laredo            62  53  75  56 /  40  20   0   0
Alice             56  49  73  55 /  40  20   0   0
Rockport          57  52  68  58 /  50  20  10   0
Cotulla           58  49  74  52 /  40  10   0   0
Kingsville        58  50  74  56 /  30  30   0   0
Navy Corpus       60  56  70  62 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ250-255-
     270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...ANM/88
AVIATION...EMF/94