488
FXUS64 KCRP 111805
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1205 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions today, Red Flag
  Warning in effect for Brush Country. Fire Danger Statement for inland
  Coastal Plains. Elevated fire weather conditions continue into
  Wednesday.

- Small Craft Advisory 00Z-12Z Wednesday.

- Pacific cold front early next week, bringing low rain chances over
  the Victoria Crossroads this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains remain under a Red Flag
Warning and a Fire Danger Statement today through this evening as
the region is experiencing very dry conditions, dry/critically dry
fuels, and winds expected to gust up to around 25 mph resulting in
Elevated to Critical Fire conditions. Elevated Fire Weather is
expected again tomorrow with improving conditions the remainder of
the week as moisture returns.

Dry conditions aloft will help promote mostly clear skies until this
weekend as a mid-level Pacific Low system approaches the Southern
Plains. Disturbances embedded out ahead of the system and a weak
surface trough will increase cloudiness and introduce low rain
chances (20-35%) starting Saturday and especially Sunday. Mainly
across eastern portions of the region with the best chance of seeing
rain being the Victoria Crossroads. Early next week a cold front
approaches our CWA but will mostly be a wind change as moisture
remains limited. Overall not much change to the forecast with this
package.


Highs today will be a bit warmer by about 10 degrees compared to
yesterday with highs topping out in the mid to upper 70s. For the
remainder of the forecast we`re looking at highs in the low to upper
80s with some locales out west possibly getting back into the low
90s. Overnight lows tonight will range in the 50s with mid 60s along
the coast. Then lows will settle into the low to mid 60s across
South Texas with low 70s along the coast through early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected over the TAF period. Low level wind
shear of 35 knots/170 degrees at 2Kft. will be possible at COT
between 06-09z tonight. Have left out of TAF since it`s below
criteria. There`s a low possibility for IFR/LIFR VSBYs at ALI (20%),
LRD and COT (15%), and VCT (5%) due to fog according to short-term
ensembles. Despite an increase in moisture today, forecast Soundings
show it most likely will be too dry near the surface for fog. Thus
with low confidence have opted to leave out of TAFs and wait until
the next cycle to see if anything changes. apart from that, expect
southerly winds around 10-14 knots gusting to 25 knots across most
terminals in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southerly breeze will strengthen to
fresh to strong (BF 5-6) tonight. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for this evening through early tomorrow morning due to
increased winds around and seas up to 6 feet occasionally to 8
feet across all waters except Baffin Bay. Then expect a moderate
to fresh (BF4-5) breeze to return tomorrow. Another Small Craft
Advisory may be needed again this weekend as a low pressure system
approaches the Southern Plains. Rain/thunderstorm chances are low
over the waters this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Today a Red Flag Warning continues through 6 pm this evening for
critical fire weather conditions over most of the Brush Country with
a Fire Danger Statement for elevated fire weather conditions across
the Inland Coastal Plains and Eastern Brush Country. This is due to
moderate to strong southerly winds, critically low humidity values
as low as 20%, and dry to critically dry fuels. Elevated to near
critical conditions are expected Wednesday with lighter winds and
increased low level moisture being the limiting factors but fuels
remain dry to critically dry. Thursday, fuel dryness is forecast to
return to normal levels as moisture continues to increase the
remainder of the week and winds should remain below thresholds thus
limiting the threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    58  82  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          54  83  59  83 /   0   0   0  10
Laredo            55  86  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             52  86  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          64  81  69  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           51  86  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        54  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       67  79  71  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ229-230-239-
     240.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Wednesday for GMZ232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...BF/80