713
FXUS64 KCRP 021101
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
501 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 500 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Low to medium rain chances (30-60%) Wednesday through Friday, with
greatest widespread chances on Thursday as a cold front pushes
through

- Wind chill values will hover around freezing feels-like
temperatures early this morning, especially over the Victoria
Crossroads

- Full moon and northeasterly flow stretches raises concern for
  potential minor coastal flooding later this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A reinforcing surge of high pressure is currently pushing through
South Texas, resulting in stronger nighttime winds over the Coastal
Plains, and wind chill values early this morning will cause feels-
like temperatures around freezing. The nocturnal inversion and low-
level saturation is allowing for drizzle across the Coastal Bend
ahead of the surge early this morning, expect this activity to
quickly diminish in the wake. We`ll see the sun today! More sunshine
will allow for temperatures to climb between 55-65 this afternoon.

Temperatures will be swinging below to around normal into early next
week as onshore flow and a surface coastal trough returns briefly
Wednesday before another cold front pushes through Thursday morning,
following by brief onshore flow later this weekend and yet another
cold front early next week. Boundaries and onshore flow enhancing
moisture to over the 75th percentile, will warrant low to medium (30-
60%) chances for showers Wednesday through Friday. Greatest chances
and coverage Thursday along the front, with low chances lingering
into this weekend. Overall, the environment is not favorable for
thunderstorms inland with CAPE minimal, only contained thunderstorm
mention over the waters and directly along the front Thursday.

Lastly, a full moon along with periods of moderate to strong
northeasterly flow, will warrant close attention to the tide levels
along the Middle Texas Coast late this week. P-ETSS is showing the
confidence interval of the 10-90th percentile extending to around
1.8 ft MSL at Aransas Pass Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

IFR conditions associated with a low cloud deck continues to push
offshore. Coastal terminals should see a return to VFR CIGs by
sunrise with scattered high clouds thinning out through the
afternoon. A weak southeasterly wind returns by 00Z with isolated
patches of MVFR CIGs returning to the immediate coastline through
the end of the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A reinforcing surge of high pressure is currently pushing through
South Texas, resulting in a fresh to strong northerly breeze (BF 5-
6) and Small Craft Advisory conditions through this morning. Winds
diminish to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) later this
afternoon, shifting onshore Wednesday morning. Another cold front is
expected to push through Thursday morning, bringing another wave of
fresh to strong northeasterly flow in the wake through Thursday
night. Winds weaken to gentle to moderate heading into the weekend,
with wind direction varying. Moderate rain chances Wednesday will
increase to medium to high, 60-90%, Thursday through Friday. Low
rain chances linger through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected into early next
week. Winds will remain light to moderate inland, predominately out
of the north to northeast. Minimum relative humidity may briefly
drop below 30% this afternoon over the Brush Country but winds will
be very light. Every afternoon into early next week is expected to
have minimum relative humidity above 30%. Low to medium rain chances
Wednesday through Friday, with greatest chances over the Coastal
Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Brief onshore flow returns Wednesday
before another cold front pushes through Thursday, then another
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    59  49  69  58 /   0   0  30  40
Victoria          58  42  67  51 /   0   0  40  60
Laredo            64  50  75  58 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             60  47  69  55 /   0   0  10  30
Rockport          59  53  72  58 /   0   0  40  60
Cotulla           63  45  70  52 /   0   0   0  20
Kingsville        60  48  71  57 /   0   0  20  30
Navy Corpus       60  55  72  62 /   0   0  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ231-232-236-237-
     250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...AE/82