788
FXUS64 KCRP 122311
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
611 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

- Coastal Flooding expected during high tides through at least
  Sunday night

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continue through Sunday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Not to continue being repetitive, but the main storyline will
continue to be the threat of coastal flooding. This morning,
numerous webcams across the barrier islands showed water levels that
reached the dunes at many sites during high tide. Swell periods will
continue to remain elevated at 9-10 seconds through at least Sunday
night, with swell heights of 1-3 feet per buoys 42092 and 42019. The
P-ETSS model continues to consistently show water levels reaching
between 2.3-2.5 feet above Mean Sea Level (MSL) every night at times
of high tides through at least Sunday night with a downtrend
beginning Monday night across the barrier islands. With swell
periods slightly longer than our forecast the past couple of days
and the P-ETSS continuing to show elevated water levels into next
week, there is a greater than 50% chance another advisory will be
needed for Monday night, especially for the beaches south of Port
Aransas. As we head into Tuesday and mid-week, swell periods are
expected to continue decreasing which will help tame the threat of
this coastal flooding event. Confidence is less that coastal
flooding will occur across the bays, but with water levels only 0.1-
0.3 feet below the 2 feet MSL mark, I decided to keep them in the
advisory at this time.

Other than that, slightly above normal temperatures are expected
across South Texas with only slim chances (less than 10%) for rain
through next week, except for Tuesday, where low end rain chances
(20-25%) can be anticipated for the southern Coastal Plains and
southern Brush Country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. A few lower
clouds 25kft-35kft are expected to develop toward early Monday
morning along the southern Coastal Bend. Southeast winds this
evening will become light and variable overnight, then
restrengthen to 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Monday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A gentle east to southeast breeze (BF 3) is expected through Sunday
before increasing to a moderate breeze (BF 4) Sunday night through
Tuesday night before a gentle breeze returns Wednesday. Slim rain
chances (less than 10%) are expected everyday except for Monday
night and late this week when low (15-25%) chances for rain are
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Drier conditions are expected this week with Wednesday expected to
be the driest day with minimum relative humidity values ranging from
25-35% in the afternoon. Although winds will be weak, the Energy
Release Component those two days are expected to range from the 55-
80th percentile within the area of the lowest relative humidity
values which will yield a low chance for elevated fire weather
conditions. Other than Wednesday, elevated fire weather conditions
are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    70  88  73  87 /   0   0  10  10
Victoria          63  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            69  93  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             66  92  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
Rockport          74  88  73  88 /   0   0  10  10
Cotulla           67  94  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        67  90  70  88 /   0   0  10  20
Navy Corpus       77  85  77  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM CDT Monday for TXZ245-342>347-
     442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...TE/81