835
FXUS64 KCRP 091124
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
524 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- Critical fire weather conditions across all of South Texas on
  Sunday with elevated fire weather conditions lingering into
  midweek each afternoon.

- Hazardous seas and Gale-force winds early Sunday morning
  through Monday morning. Bays rough.

- Tuesday morning low temperatures dropping into the mid 30s
  inland to mid 40s along the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The aforementioned cold front is expected to sweep through the
region this morning, clearing the coast by midmorning (12-15Z). This
is expected to bring a much needed cool down across the region
dropping highs today to 70s and 60s Monday. The coldest temperatures
can be expected Monday night into Tuesday mornings with mostly upper
30s to lower 40s expected across South Texas. The drier conditions
and subsiding winds will allow the region to efficiently
radiationally cool and could lead to some lower temperatures. There
is a low chance showers and thunderstorms along the front in the
Gulf waters as it clears the coast.

In addition to the added cold temperatures, higher winds and drier
conditions can be expected beginning in the wake of the front. This
is expected to combine with critically dry fuels and lead to
critical fire weather conditions across the region. Winds are
expected to be in excess of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH as
relative humidity values plummet around 15-30%. A Red Flag Warning
is in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM for critical fire weather conditions.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to linger through
midweek, as inefficient moisture recovery will lead to persisting
low relative humidity values. A Wind Advisory was issued as well
this morning as winds are expected to remain elevated through the
day beginning around 4 AM through 6 PM this evening.

Lastly, the other hazard expected will be marine conditions with
Small Craft Advisory for the bays and Gale Conditions in the Gulf
waters. A Gale Warning has been issued from 8 AM this morning
through 8 AM Monday morning. This will likely be transitioned to a
Small Craft Advisory until winds subside. Winds are expected to
subside by Monday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Only a couple of more hours of IFR/LIFR to MVFR conditions will be
possible before the front swings through. Once the that happens,
the fog will quickly diminish and the main story will be winds.
Gusty winds up to 32-34 knots are expected this afternoon before
gradually relaxing this evening after 00-02z. Low level wind
shear will be possible across all sites from 12-13z with up to 50
knots of shear at 2,000 feet.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Light to gentle (BF 2-3) south to southwesterly flow will continue
tonight, before a strong cold front moves through between 5-9 AM
Sunday morning, bringing only a low (20-30%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely follow in
the wake over the bays with mainly a strong breeze (BF 6), whereas
strong to near- Gale to Gale force (BF 7-8) develops over the open
waters. The stronger winds over the open waters warrants a Gale
Warning through Monday morning due sustained winds around Gale with
frequent Gale- force gusts and building seas over 10 feet.
Conditions are expected to improve by Monday evening, with winds
below 20 knots and seas subsiding below 7 feet. Gentle to moderate
(BF 3-4) onshore flow returns Tuesday, strengthening to a south to
southeasterly fresh to strong breeze (BF 5-6) Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh breeze will follow to close out
the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1248 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A strong cold front will push across South Texas north to south
this morning, between 08-14Z, causing critical fire weather
conditions in its wake through Sunday evening. North to
northeasterly sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of
35-40 mph and relative humidity dropping to 15-30 percent, will
cause a significant fire weather threat. Although winds decrease
heading into the work week, minimum relative humidity values will
continue to be very low, dropping into the teens (Mon) and 20s
(Tue-Wed), keeping at least elevated fire weather conditions
intact through the middle of the week each afternoon. In
addition, Energy Release Component (ERC) values are extremely
high, ranging from the 80-95th percentile. Today will be the
greatest threat for fire weather, with notable elevated
conditions following into the midweek. Conditions improve below
elevated fire weather criteria by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  45  65  42 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          75  37  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            78  47  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             79  43  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          78  47  65  51 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           76  42  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        79  44  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       76  50  64  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening
     for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for TXZ230>234-
     240>247-342>344-346-347.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ230>234-240>244-
     246-247.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ250-255-
     270-275.

     Gale Warning until 8 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...JCP/84