622
FXUS64 KCRP 160550
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1250 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1246 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

- Low (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms this morning
  from remnants of what was Invest 98L, decreasing chances this
  afternoon

- Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through this morning.
  High rip current risk today. Please use caution at the beach and
  in the waters!

- Low to medium rain chances return mid to late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Slight changes were made to the forecast, specifically with the
PoPs. Guidance has continued to trend drier as Invest 98L continues
to weaken as it progresses inland, therefore PoPs were capped around
30% with most areas around 20-25% through the day today. The focus
looks to be further to the north which will allow for more coverage
in the Hill Country, though for our CWA coverage will be more
isolated in nature. Since there will likely be less convection than
initially anticipated, we will see hot and humid conditions once
again across the region. Highs will be in the upper 90s to the lower
105s, with heat indices around 110 though this isn`t expected to
eclipse 110 for more than 2 hours. Therefore we will hold off on a
Heat Advisory at this time, though still practicing good heat safety
habits is encouraged. These include staying hydrated, taking breaks
and not spending long periods in the sun, etc. These conditions are
expected to persist daily with continued diurnally driven isolated
to scattered thunderstorms along the sea breeze.

Conditions over the waters have waned over the past few hours. With
this expected to persist over the next few hours, the high risk of
rip currents and Coastal Flood Advisory will be allowed to expire.
May have to monitor a couple of spots for the potential for coastal
flooding beginning Sunday lasting through midweek. P-ETSS is
forecasting seas around Port Aransas to reach around 2.0 to 2.3 feet
MSL which early next week. Will keep an eye on this though
confidence is low at this time.

Otherwise looking later into the week, models depict a low forming
and riding the periphery of the ridge into our region. This will
bring increased PoP chances once again beginning around midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

A few showers have developed over the Coastal Plains and Brush
Country early this morning. Borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings accompany
these showers and have included PROB30s across most sites (except
for LRD) through this morning. MVFR ceilings may also develop
over the Rio Grande Plains, potentially impacting COT/LRD through
the mid-morning. Sustained southeasterly winds will increase to
around 15 knots this afternoon and gust to around 25 knots. Rain
chances will diminish, especially heading into Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

A moderate breeze Saturday morning are expected to persist before
transitioning to light breeze by Monday. Low to medium PoP
chances are expected to remain in the forecast through this
upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  78  95  76 /  10   0  10   0
Victoria          97  76  99  75 /  20   0  10   0
Laredo           103  77 104  77 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             99  76 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
Rockport          93  81  93  79 /  10   0  10   0
Cotulla          101  77 103  76 /  20  10   0   0
Kingsville        97  76  97  75 /  10   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       91  82  91  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ442-
     443.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...EMF/94