383
FXUS64 KCRP 011757
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1257 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected late this afternoon
  into this evening. A Slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe
  weather over the Coastal Plains.

- Dry with a warming trend through the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Much of what was discussed from this morning (see below) remains
valid for this forecast package. Storms initially start firing up
and moving through the Victoria Crossroads from 5pm, with storms
initiating near the I-37 corridor closer to 7pm. These storms will
generally move to the southeast towards the coast. With steep
mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear in place, the primary
threat of large hail (in excess of 1 inch) remains prevalent with
damaging winds associated with outflow boundaries still possible.
For this reason, SPC has upgraded the Coastal Plains to a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extending
out to the eastern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads. Most
storm activity either moves offshore our south of Kleberg County
shortly after midnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A fairly potent mid-lvl vort lobe will pivot S-SEwrd through Texas
today, driving weak surface cyclogenesis over far south
Texas/Northern Mexico. The trajectory of the mid-lvl wave will
result in the surface low largely tracking south of the area, which
will limit the northward/inland extent of any pre-frontal moisture
return and largely confine any appreciable sfc-based instability to
the coastal plains and Gulf waters. Despite this lack of deep
moisture, modest mid-lvl height falls (~3dam) combined with low-lvl
convergence just ahead of the front (enhanced by a weak sea-breeze)
should be enough to support at least scattered showers and storms.
The most likely time frame for storms looks to be roughly 5pm-
midnight with the highest chances for storms being over the coastal
plain and adjacent waters where instability is maximized.

Despite the aforementioned meager instability (SBCAPE generally
peaking around 1000-1200 J/kg near the coast), deep-layer shear will
exceed 40-50kts as strong NWrly winds aloft lie overtop light SErly
low-lvl winds. This will result in a fairly narrow corridor of
prefrontal ~3-5 supercell composite parameter values focused along
the coastal plains and Gulf this afternoon into this evening. This
threat of isolated supercellular convection has lead the SPC to
place coastal portions of the area in a Marginal risk of severe
weather today. Besides the usual damaging wind threat, sub 11k ft.
WBZ heights and 7-7.5 C/km 700-500mb lapse rates will also result in
a threat of severe hail with any supercells (with an even greater
threat of small hail). The strong mid-lvl flow and rapidly
progressing frontal boundary will keep storms progressive enough to
preclude any hydro concerns.

Rainfall will come to an end Saturday night as drier air filters in
behind the cold front and mid-lvl heights rise as ridging builds in
from the west. Pleasant conditions will prevail during the day on
Sunday with low humidity and temperatures running near-normal.
Sunday night/Monday AM will likely be the coolest night in the
period as the surface high moves overhead, with low temperatures
dropping into the 40s over most inland areas, with 50s expected
closer to the coast. Heading into the workweek the surface high
north of the area will gradually shift east, resulting in the low-
lvl flow veering more southeasterly. This will usher in a warming
trend with high temperatures increasing to around 10 degrees above
normal (i.e. generally mid 80s to lower 90s) by mid-late week. The
close proximity of the mid-lvl ridge will keep precipitation chances
near zero through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Tonight, there will be a brief window of scattered storms
associated with an approaching cold front, with some being strong
and capable of producing large hail and gusty/erratic wind gusts
associated with outflow boundaries. The primary area of concern
exists along the coastal counties, with the greatest concern for
KVCT/KALI/KCRP from 00Z-04Z and lingering showers through 06Z.
Otherwise, expect mostly VFR conditions after these storms clear
the coast. Winds will switch to be more NE`ly after 00Z at near 10
kts through the end of the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Gentle SErly winds this afternoon will become strong and shift to
the north- northeast tonight behind a cold front. SCA conditions
are anticipated through around mid-day Sunday before winds quickly
decrease to moderate and then gentle lvls late Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. There is a medium-high (50-75%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight
bringing brief periods of locally-elevated winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

RH values will increase today ahead of a weak cold front, although
measurable rainfall with the front will likely be confined to the
coastal plains. Drier air will return behind the front, with minRHs
generally below 30% Sunday and Monday apart from coastal areas which
will benefit from the flow having an onshore component. Although
winds should remain under 15mph, ERC values near the 75-90th
percentile combined with the low RHs may result in elevated fire
concerns for the Rio Grande Plains and Brush country to start the
workweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    57  76  53  79 /  50   0   0   0
Victoria          48  76  44  78 /  30   0   0   0
Laredo            57  79  54  83 /  20   0   0   0
Alice             53  78  48  82 /  30   0   0   0
Rockport          58  76  60  77 /  40   0   0   0
Cotulla           52  78  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        55  78  49  80 /  40   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       63  74  65  76 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon CDT Sunday
     for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82