Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
796 FXUS64 KCRP 281730 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into early next week. Greatest chances Sunday and Monday. - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts across the Brush Country today through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A mid- to upper-level ridge will continue to limit precipitation, leaving us with low chances (generally <20%) along the coast and across the Victoria Crossroads. The ridge will begin to shift to the west Saturday, with a few weak mid-level shortwaves expected to move around the eastern periphery. These, when combined with PWAT values around 2 inches and a lingering stationary front, will result in a low to medium (20-50%) chance of convection late Saturday into early next week. The greatest chances remain on Sunday and Monday. South Texas has been placed under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall beginning 12Z Sunday through 12Z Tuesday, with localized flash flooding possible in low-lying or poor drainage areas. Lower rain chances (15-20%) may persist Tuesday into midweek as the stationary front gradually dissipates. The main concern for this holiday weekend will be the the heat, with very warm temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. Expect a moderate to occasionally extreme heat risk through the holiday, with heat index values between 100-112 across the area. With many outdoor activities anticipated over the holiday weekend, it is important to practice heat safety by staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks, and limiting time in direct sun. Additional information on heat safety is available at weather.gov/heat. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 VFR conditions are expected over all terminals. While an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon, low confidence will keep any mention of this out of the TAFs. Guidance continues to downplay the fog potential at ALI, but since we have consistently seen IFR/LIFR visibility each morning, this has been included as a TEMPO for ALI. VCT will include MVFR visibility for the similar time period of 11-15Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A low chance of showers and thunderstorms (generally less than 20%) will continue today through Saturday. Chances for precipitation will increase to a low to medium (20-60%) late Saturday through Monday, then diminish once again by the middle of the week. South to southeasterly winds will be gentle to moderate through the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 75 98 75 97 / 0 10 0 30 Laredo 79 105 78 105 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 75 101 75 100 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 80 93 80 93 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 78 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 83 91 82 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...LS/77