600
FXUS61 KCTP 230759
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
359 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Freeze Watch continues for Friday night for Lancaster and
  Lebanon Counties.
* Adjustments to near-term temperatures due to cloud cover
  across the northern tier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather continues into the last week of October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather continues into the last week of
October.

A dry cold front will push south of the Mason-Dixon Line early
today. In the wake of the cfront, a brief, several-hour uptick
in north to northeasterly wind will occur across the Susq
Valley and points east during the mid to late morning hours
today.

PWAT values will once again decrease to 0.25 of an inch or less
for the midday and afternoon hours today as sfc high pressure
builds into the region with a pronounced upper level ridge
developing over the eastern US. This will keep dry conditions
around through at least the beginning of next week with
seasonably warm days and chilly nights.

HREF probs of temperatures falling below freezing late tonight
and early Sat are 50 percent or less for Lancaster and Lebanon
Counties (the only zones where the growing season remains
active).

NAM and GFS MOS guidance have shown a slight increase to 33-36F
in both of those counties. This trend (albeit with still very
favorable set up for efficient radiational cooling), has led us
to hold onto (for another model cycle) the Freeze Watch for
tonight/Saturday morning.

Widespread frost appears likely acrs much of these 2 counties
(and elsewhere across the rest of the CWA), but there is still
some question if we`ll see many sub-freezing min temps in the
current Watch area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions due to high pressure and dry weather will
continue into this weekend. Outside of patchy valley fog in the
north and brief MVFR cigs possible early this morning (mainly
BFD), there are very low probabilities of reductions to flight
categories. Wind gusts of 15-20 kts will remain possible across
the southeast today in N to NE flow, with lighter winds towards
the northwest, closer to the center of the high.

Sat-Tue...VFR prevailing conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
PAZ059-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...
KEY MESSAGES...
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen