199
FXUS61 KCTP 031722
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1222 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* More in the way of sunshine on Wednesday as milder
  temperatures eat away at existing snowfall southeast of the
  Allegheny Front.
* Arctic cold front delivers snow showers (squalls?) Thursday
  morning, gusty winds Thursday afternoon, and frigid
  temperatures Thursday night.
* Below normal temperatures continue into next week with chances
  for snow every few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds have eroded away throughout much of the area, outside of
the western half of the forecast area where they are expected
to continue eroding through Wednesday afternoon. Northwest winds
will continue to facilitate downslope flow and decreasing
clouds east of the Alleghenies in the near-term.

Any slushy areas and standing water from melting snow may
result in slick spots/black ice early this morning across
mainly western Pennsylvania as temperatures hover in the 20s.

A quick look at multiple observation systems and roadway
cameras this morning outline mostly dry conditions across much
of the area, with any areas of concerns limited to the Laurel
Highlands early this morning. Considerations for a Special
Weather Statement across the Laurel Highlands was given,
especially with regards to elevated and untreated surfaces;
however, have decided to hold off this cycle at this time.

Wednesday continues to look pleasant as high pressure builds
into the area. Still won`t totally clear the clouds in the
Alleghenies, but it should be dry for all of the region.
Southwest winds will pick up a bit in the afternoon gusting to
15 or 20 mph, especially in northwest PA. High temperatures will
range from near 30 across the northwest to near 40 across the
southeast. Sunshine southeast of the Allegheny Front and
temperatures above freezing should put a dent in existing snow
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
1100Z/6AM EST Update: Forecast remains on track, have decided
to continue holding off on HWO mentions for squall potential as
recent model guidance continues to outline the best chances for
snow squalls north and east of the area where better lift will
be present for squall potential. Despite holding off on
mentions, area of most concern will be across the northern half
(especially the northern tier counties) of the forecast area
with travel impacts possible along the I-99/I-80 corridor.

Previous Discussion, Issued 11:10PM EST 12/02/2025:
An arctic cold front will plow southeast across the Lower Great
Lakes late Wednesday night and reach northwest PA by early
Thursday morning. Light snow/snow showers should accompany the
front over the western and northern Alleghenies and could spill
into the central ridge and valley region. SNSQ risk parameter is
not particularly high, likely due to limited instability thanks
to the low sun angle as we approach the Winter Solstice. Even
still, a few stronger snow showers/squalls could create travel
impacts on Thursday morning. Fcst snow amounts are light (1" or
less) and largely confined to the western high terrain, but
travel impacts are possible along the I-99/I-80 corridor. Have
added mention of snow shower potential all the way down to I-81
at this point, though confidence definitely decreases with
southeastward extent.

Temps will plunge behind the front as brisk NW flow sends
readings falling NW->SE by Thursday afternoon. Building high
pressure will hep slacken winds, clear out our skies, and
promote ideal radiational cooling with a fresh snowpack. This
combination will help lows plummet into the single digits and
low teens Thursday night into Friday morning with subzero wind
chills over the higher elevations in the Laurels and northwest
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold end to the week with fcst highs below the freezing mark in
most of the CWA.

Low track remains uncertain for Friday with the potential for
snow to brush the southern tier of CPA. Otherwise, model trends
favor occasional snow showers downwind of Lake Erie over the
weekend and possible clipper system during the first part of
next week. No major winter storms are expected over the next
week, but temperatures will remain below the historical average
for early December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very strong inversion in place, thus expect low CIGS over the
mtns to not mix out now.

Main issue for late tonight into Thursday will be gusty winds
along and behind a strong cold front. Also potential for heavy
snow showers, mainly at BFD and JST, but perhaps also into UNV,
AOO, and maybe IPT. The cold air is not real deep, but the
airmass behind the front is abnormally cold, which has the
potential to offset the lack of deepness to the cold air, and
also the lakes are still warm, thus ended up bringing conditions
down in a TEMPO group.

The weather for Friday into Monday will feature weather systems
to the southeast and northwest of our area, so while low CIGS
and snow showers may prevail at times, not seeing any big storms
at this point.

Outlook...

Fri...Cold start to the day with temps 0-15F. Slight chance of
snow across the southern half of central PA with restrictions
possible.

Sat-Mon...Restrictions possible, chance of snow showers in the
NW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Cold temperatures in the wake of the Arctic Front will bring
frigid temperatures to central Pennsylvania, the coldest of this
winter thus far. Multiple locations across the area will be
challenging record low temperatures on December 5th:

Location|Record
Harrisburg | 12 (1926)
Williamsport |   8 (1926)
Bradford | 0 (2007)
Altoona | 13 (1966)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/NPB
SHORT TERM...Banghoff/NPB
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...NPB