451
FXUS61 KCTP 062128
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
428 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Severe weather outlook area shifted a bit eastward for
  Saturday afternoon/evening; Slight risk now along and west of
  I-99 and Marginal risk extends across nearly the entire CWA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Boom and gloom conditions precede the first severe
thunderstorm risk of 2026 on Saturday afternoon/evening

2) Significant Springtime warming Saturday through Wednesday
followed by seasonal moderation/cool down into mid-March

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Boom and gloom conditions precede the first
severe T-storm risk of 2026 on Saturday afternoon/evening

Clouds are slowly but surely thinning out east of I-99 and US-15
this afternoon, with plentiful sunshine and pleasant temperatures
farther west. The boom refers to temperatures soaring into the
mid 60s to low 70s across western PA where southwesterly flow
has eroded away at the cloud cover and given a glimpse of
spring. Meanwhile, low clouds, some patchy fog, and scattered
rain showers farther east are much more "gloom", with
temperatures stuck in the low to mid 40s. The 24-hr max temp
for Saturday will likely be reached shortly before 12AM Sunday
in the eastern zones.

The first severe T-storm risk for CPA in 2026 still on track for
Saturday afternoon and evening. The primary threat area and
greatest risk (level 2 out of 5) will be focused from the Upper
Ohio Valley into western PA with the eastern extent along the
I-99 corridor. The likelihood of increasing stability to the
east of the mtns will greatly reduce the severe storm risk
across the central and especially eastern portions of the fcst
area, though a Marginal Risk is in place there. A few morning
showers and storms will move across south central PA before more
substantial clearing builds in from the west. A linear
convective mode is favored with a potential line of strong to
severe storms capable of damaging winds tracking eastward from
Ohio into western PA late in the afternoon or evening.

The kinematic profile looks impressive for Pennsylvania
standards tomorrow, with steep mid-level lapse rates, elongated
right turning hodographs with 250-350 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, and 50kts
of deep-layer shear. The limiting factor, as usual, will be
thermodynamics thanks to the persistent cold wedge that will be
slow to erode tomorrow. A stronger surface inversion with
eastward extent means convection will tend to become elevated as
it moves into the eastern PA and that should limit the ability
for damaging winds to mix down the surface. Sufficient MLCAPE on
the order of 1000-1500J/kg along and west of the I-99/US-15
corridor will support the best chance for damaging winds (and
perhaps some hail or a tornado). The strength of storms as they
move east of I-99 will be dependent on time of day and degree of
clearing ahead of the line of storms. If storms are slower to
arrive and clearing occurs farther east than expected, the risk
of severe weather could expand.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant Springtime warming Sunday through
Wednesday followed by seasonal moderation/cool down into mid-
March

Cool wedge pattern finally breaks down and allows for a
significant springtime warming from Sunday into the middle of
next week. Frontal showers exit the area Sunday morning with
rain-free conditions likely holding into Tuesday. Dry and breezy
conditions on Monday could lead to the first elevated risk of
rapid wildfire spread for the year, especially across southeast
PA where less rain is expected over the next 36 hours.
Southwest flow builds by Tuesday, with a surge in temperatures
and dewpoints anticipated. April to May- like max/min temps
fcst +20-30 degrees above the historical average will challenge
daily records in some areas Tue/Wed. Cold frontal passage
Wed/Thu will bring some rain followed by a seasonable cool down
for late in the week into mid-March.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Late afternoon update.

Adjusted TAFS for current obs and trends. Leading edge of the
clearing and milder air just east of a BFD, FIG, JST line.

Earlier discussion below.

A meandering frontal boundary and cold air damming in the ridge
and valleys of central PA will keep IFR conditions across the
east through this forecast period. Farther west, VFR conditions
are in place at JST and BFD, with AOO hanging on to MVFR
ceilings at this time. Some improvement is expected areawide
through the afternoon before falling again tonight.

As the sun sets this evening, expect a drop back to solid IFR
and LIFR for the overnight hours with some patchy 1/4SM to 1/2SM
in FG. JST is the biggest wildcard in a pattern like this, as
IFR conditions may scatter out before dawn and result in
persistent VFR as southwest winds develop. Ridgetops will be
obscured in the overcast through the period with winds remaining
generally light.

Low level wind shear will become a concern on Saturday as a
screaming low level jet builds across northwest PA. Periods of
rain are possible in the morning before a more robust line of
showers and storms moves across the region in the afternoon and
evening. Visibility restrictions from storms should be
relatively brief (on the order of 20 to 40 minutes).

Outlook...

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and
east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds
could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

Mon...Restrictions possible as low-level moisture increases.

Tue...Restrictions possible in the morning due to low-level
moisture.

Wed...Restrictions likely in showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Martin/Tyburski