297
FXUS61 KCTP 281026
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
626 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Nudging temps cooler than NBM mean Fri night-Sunday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much drier air is moving in, and will result in a couple of
fair and dry days.

2) Upper low over eastern Canada will spin a compact closed low
through the northeast Friday-Saturday. Colder air and a dry
spell will follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Much drier air is moving in, and will result in
a fair and rain-free day.

Dewpoints are dropping with 40s already into about half the CWA
as of 2 AM EDT. A patch of mid clouds with radar returns under
it may try to make a sprinkle over the Laurels before sunrise.
But, the dry air under it will likely keep it just a sprinkle if
it makes it to the ground. Fog is evident on the fog enhancement
sat images over srn Somerset Co where the heaviest rain fell
yesterday. But, the dry air (Td in the L50s there) already
seems to be killing it off and pushing it south of the MD
border.Will monitor for any redevelopment, or even a little in
the river valleys of the north as temps dip. But, no hints of
fog up there just yet.

The high pressure area moving in from central Canada will keep
things dry. However, some cu will form over the NErn two-thirds
of the CWA today as slightly cooler air aloft moves overhead.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see some drops try to fall out of the
clouds, but they will evaporate before hitting the ground.

     -------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper low over eastern Canada will spin a
compact closed low through the northeast Friday-Saturday. Colder
air and a dry spell will follow.

High pressure aloft and at the sfc will set up just to our west,
and deflect a compact upper low off to our east, but not by
much. The cold front associated with the upper feature will
arrive late Friday. Other than kicking up the wind a little late
Fri-Fri night, it should not generate measurable precip in the
CWA due to the minimal moisture held by the system. The more-
notable change will be the reduction in temps on Saturday as 8H
temps dip close to 0C in the NE and low single digits elsewhere.
NBM does not seem to reflect this possibility, so we went with a
blend of MOS guidance and NBM for maxes. Sat night could get
pretty chilly as the wind dies down overnight. Some places in
the nrn tier could go below 40F, with all the CWA hitting the
40-45F range for mins. Temps should rebound into the 70s Sunday.

The chance of precip inches up into the 20-30pct range for the
first half of the new week starting with another shot of lowered
heights/pressure aloft around Monday. But, there really aren`t
any strong signals for a widespread rainfall for days 4-8 as the
upper ridge to our west holds firm and makes it tough for Gulf
and Pacific moisture to get into PA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mainly
dry conditions. Northwest winds will increase through the
morning to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely.
Gusts could approach 30 knots during the afternoon at MDT and
LNS. Cool air aloft combined with diurnal heating will allow for
scattered to broken clouds to develop between 5000 and 8000 feet
with some spotty light showers. Skies quickly clear out after
sunset and winds will decrease to less than 5 knots.

Outlook...

Thu-Mon...VFR with no significant weather expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Bauco/Teare