184
FXUS61 KCTP 040905
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
505 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added more details about today`s severe weather threat
  (limited to southwest PA)

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One more round of strong to severe storms this
afternoon and evening, primarily affecting southwest
Pennsylvania.

2) Dry, less humid weather returns for Saturday and lasts
through Labor Day Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: One more round of strong to severe storms this
afternoon and evening, primarily affecting southwest
Pennsylvania.

The ring of fire pattern persists today as a stubborn ridge of
high pressure persists across the Central and Southeast US. Pockets
of energy riding along the northeast periphery of that ridge
have brought numerous rounds of storms to Pennsylvania over the
last 3 days, and at least one more episode is on tap for this
afternoon and evening.

Hi resolution guidance and the latest SPC convective outlook
highlight southwest PA into the Ohio Valley as the most likely
corridor for severe weather. At least one round of strong to
severe storms will race from northwest to southeast through
western Pennsylvania this afternoon. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat, but some small hail is also possible. Flash
flooding may pose a threat, but the relatively short duration of
expected rainfall combined with antecedent (comparatively) dry
conditions should limit the magnitude of flooding to some
extent.

For locations outside of the Laurel Highlands & Bedford County,
there could still be occasional showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms today. Weaker forcing means severe weather is
unlikely and rainfall amounts should generally remain below a
quarter of an inch. It will remain warm and muggy today with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and uncomfortable dewpoints.

   -------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry, less humid weather returns for Saturday and lasts
through Labor Day Weekend.

A cold front draped across the PA/NY border will begin its
southward surge tonight, helped by a deepening upper low over
New England. This push of northeasterly winds at the surface
will usher in cooler and much less humid air for Saturday and
the remainder of Labor Day weekend. There could still be a few
lingering showers in the southwest part of our area into
Saturday morning, but coverage and intensity of storms will
trend considerably lower. With cool temperatures aloft, we can`t
rule out the chance for an isolated shower or two on Saturday
around the area along with widespread stratocumulus clouds.
Saturday will still be a few degrees warmer than average for
this time of year, but the real relief arrives by Saturday
night. Dewpoints and low temperatures will fall into the upper
40s and 50s areawide by Sunday morning.

Other than some morning valley fog, the weather will be really
nice for the Sunday and Labor Day Monday. Highs mainly in the
70s and lows 45-55F both Sunday night and Monday night will be
ideal for outdoor activities. Little if any rain is expected
along with abundant sunshine. At this point, it looks like dry
weather sticks around through at least midweek. After that, the
ridge may build once again along with the associated chance for
a return to the ring of fire.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR ceilings persist across the northern tier this morning,
including BFD, IPT, and UNV with VFR farther south. Expect
improving conditions areawide later this morning with partly to
mostly cloudy skies.

This afternoon will bring another chance for storms, especially
across southwest Pennsylvania. Restrictions are most probably at
JST where we`ve introduced a PROB30 for showers between 18 and
22Z. This window may need to be refined and probabilities
increased as confidence increases. Elsewhere, a passing shower
is possible but no restrictions are likely.

Outlook...

Sat-Tue...VFR favored; morning fog possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Banghoff
AVIATION...Banghoff