885
FXUS61 KCTP 252340
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
740 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and more humid temperature build starting during the
second half of the week

2) Showers with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are expected
for Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warmer and more humid temperature build starting during the second
half of the week.

Cooler temperatures through the middle of the week associated with a
trough will give way to increasing humidity and warmer temperatures
starting Wednesday afternoon. Increased temperatures and humidity
will last through the start of next week.

Temperatures from earlier in the week in the 70s will warm to the
upper 70s to mid 80s later in the week and into the weekend.
Southerly return flow on the backside of a departing sfc high will
help induce WAA and start to push increased moisture into the
region. A passing warm front later Wednesday into Thursday will
further increase temperatures and moisture across the area as the
warm sector of a passing sfc low becomes established over the
region. The cold front associated with the system will cross the
area late Thursday into Friday morning. A drop in temperatures by a
few degrees for Friday/Saturday will be possible behind the front.
But temperatures and humidity will rebound and increase once
again.

-------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Showers with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms
 are expected for Thursday.

A pre-frontal trough tracking across the area ahead of the
approaching cold front will cross the area during the afternoon
hours. Currently the outlook from SPC is for a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms across the entire area. Current guidance brings
somewhat favorable shear values of around 30 knots along with
instability of around 1,000-1,500 J/kg. Uncertainty among guidance
for the amount of cloud cover still remains as of the most recent
model runs. Damaging winds with a lower chance for hail remains the
primary hazard.

Increased PWat values to around 1.50" will also help increase the
potential for heavy rainfall with thunderstorms that develop. The
eastern half of the area still remain in a Marginal Risk for
excessive runoff from WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for patchy valley
fog to form tonight over north-central PA. IFR restrictions
appear most likely at BFD and IPT, though AOO and UNV may also
see impacts from fog. VFR conditions will return by 14Z and will
continue through the rest of the day under partly cloudy skies.
Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Thu...Restrictions possible in scattered afternoon showers and
storms.

Fri...Still a slight chance of a shower, VFR otherwise.

Sat-Sun...Clearing conditions, VFR favored.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco