559
FXUS61 KCTP 020806
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
406 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold frontal passage today will bring a few to several
hour period of showers in most places, followed by a weekend
cooldown and a frost/freeze risk early next week

2) Not much rain expected for the first 10 days of October

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold frontal passage today will bring a few
to several hour period of showers in most places, followed by a
weekend cooldown and a frost/freeze risk early next week

Our recent warm spell (with daytime high temps some 8 to 12 deg
F above normal and nighttime low temperature departures even
greater) will exit to the east as clouds and the chance for
showers increase today with the arrival of a cold front.

Prior to the cold frontal passage (across the NW Mtns late this
morning, and elsewhere across the Central Mtns and Lower Susq
Valley this afternoon and evening respectively) max temps will
once again come in well above normal (+10-15 deg F) over the SE
half of the state and still near normal across the Northwest.

Temperatures will become seasonably cooler this weekend into
next week, when another stronger cold front will push through
Sunday night and early Monday.

The second surge of the cooldown will be highlighted by frost
potential across the western and central Alleghenies Monday and
Tuesday night with min temps near the freezing mark across the
northern tier.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Not much rain expected for the first 7-10 days
of October

We`ll have a few, generally limited opportunities for rain over
the next 7+ days in CPA. The first will come this morning over
the Northwest Mtns as cold front over the Lower Great Lakes
drifts gradually southeast.

02/00Z High Res model members and the HREF are a little more
robust with rainfall amounts across the CWA today (compared to
the 12Z Thu run) and even ramp up the intensity of the showers
across the SE third of the state with a potential for TSRA in
the 20+ percent range given some small areas of MU CAPE values
of up to 750 J/KG during the mid to late afternoon with temps in
the L80s and sfc Tds in the mid 60s.

The second opportunity for rain is on Sunday focused mainly
over the southern and eastern portions of the CWA. High
confidence in a dry stretch for much of next week as large area
of Canadian high pressure dominates the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cloud cover continues to increase tonight into Friday morning
ahead of an approaching cold front. Any rain associated with
this front likely holds off until right around 12Z Friday before
reaching BFD. LLWS will be a concern into Friday morning as a
40 to 60 knot southwesterly low-level jet moves in from the
west ahead of the front. LLWS is most likely at BFD and JST
overnight, though AOO, UNV, and IPT could may see LLWS develop
after 06Z. Fog formation isn`t expected to be robust enough at
any eastern terminals due to lack of radiational cooling the
rest of tonight ahead of the frontal passage, however some
passing mist before dawn cannot be fully ruled out.

Regardless of fog formation, IFR or LIFR ceilings appear likely
to develop at BFD in the 10-12Z timeframe as rain begins to
move in. Showers with lowering ceilings will begin elsewhere
throughout the afternoon reaching UNV and IPT around 18Z, and
finally reaching the southeastern terminals afterwards.
Localized heavier rain may be on tap with PWATs approaching 1.5
to 2 inches for LNS, JST, AOO, and MDT. Visibilities will
primarily remain in MVFR during the showers, but periods of IFR
are possible. No thunder mentions added because of weak CAPE
primarily below freezing level.

Winds take on a northwesterly/northerly flow pattern behind the
front. Drier air will filter in behind the front with
improvements to flight restrictions from west to east primarily
after 23Z Friday to 2Z Saturday. JST and AOO look the most
likely candidates to hang onto MVFR conditions later into
tomorrow night.

Outlook...

Sat...VFR favored behind the FROPA. AM fog possible.

Sun...Restrictions possible as a weak low pressure system
develops along the residual frontal boundary over the Mid-
Atlantic. -RA possible, more so across southern and eastern PA.

Mon...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog possible.

Tue...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog/frost possible,
especially across the Allegheny Plateau and Laurels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
September 2026 precipitation rankings

IPT: 11th wettest (6.84")
MDT: 26th wettest (4.72")
AOO:  9th wettest (5.58")
BFD: 10th wettest (4.85")
JST:  3rd wettest (7.31") *since 2000
STC:  6th wettest (7.90")

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Teare/Lambrech/Krantz
CLIMATE...Steinbugl