776
FXUS61 KCTP 180930
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
430 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Rain arrives later today and mixes with elevation-driven, wet
  snow this evening through tonight near & north of I-80
* Mainly dry Wednesday and Thursday; trending milder with some
  rain likely to end the week
* Seasonable and mainly dry weekend before Thanksgiving

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quiet start today under the influence of high pressure migrating
eastward across the central Appalachians toward the NC/VA coast.
Some locations in CPA will wake up to temperatures in the mid
to upper teens particularly over the southwestern portion of the
CWA where skies are clear and winds are light.

A fast moving low pressure system streaking eastward from the
Ohio Valley to the Delmarva will bring rain and light snow to
CPA later today through the overnight hours. Hires guidance
shows the steadier precip occurring this evening through
tonight, however the warm advection regime may speed up the
onset. Dry air near the sfc (10-20 degree Td depressions)
should offset the quicker advance/arrival of the WAA precip.

Tight to marginally cold 850mb thermal gradient combined with
elevation and wet bulb effects suggest some mixed/wintry precip
is likely this evening through tonight into early Wednesday
(predawn) morning. HREF data is bullish for freezing rain on
the ridgetops across the Laurel Highlands and southern
Alleghenies particularly Cambria/Blair county border. Icy spots
and slick roads are possible, but overall impact may be limited
given marginal road/air temps. Meanwhile, there is a better
signal for a slushy, minor (<1"), elevation-driven snow accum
particularly over east-central PA near/along the I80 to US220
corridors in the 06-12Z window. Snow accum is most likely on
non-paved and elevated surfaces with minimum temps hovering
near to slightly above the freezing mark. Precip should
end/shift to the east by 7AM/12Z Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure provides mainly dry weather through midweek;
however this period looks rather cloudy especially on Thursday.
Fcst daytime max temps hold steady in the 40-50F range with the
largest 24hr deltas on the order of +5-10F coming Thursday
night (low temps 35-45F or +10-15F above mid Nov. climo).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Split stream flow and weak frontal system offers the best
chance of rain on Friday to end the week. Latest model and
ensemble trends favor a drying trend through the weekend. Timing
differences and uncertainty both increase with the the next
northern stream wave early next week. Friday looks like the
mildest day with near to slightly above normal temps fcst into
the start of Thanksgiving week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winds are still a bit gusty tonight with occasional gusts to
20kts, but lighter winds will prevail overnight as high pressure
briefly builds in. VFR ceilings will persist overnight at all
airfields and the overcast deck of clouds across the northeast
half of PA will gradually fade overnight.

A quick-moving system will bring a mix of precipitation to
southern airfields Tuesday afternoon and evening. Ceilings will
gradually lower from west to east after 18Z tomorrow with IFR or
LIFR the eventual destination everywhere. JST and AOO will be
the first to experience precipitation, which could start as snow
and then transition to plain rain. Current guidance indicates
that other airfields may not experience any precipitation prior
to 00z.

Rain will overspread the region (mainly south of KBFD) overnight
and change over to or mix with snow at KUNV and KIPT.

Outlook...

Wed...AM showers southeast, restrictions likely from southeast
flow/low clouds.

Thu...Dry, restrictions likely in low clouds.

Fri-Sat...Widespread rain expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff