184
FXUS61 KCTP 261916
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
216 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Lake effect snow may result in significant Thanksgiving
  holiday travel disruptions across northwest Pennsylvania
* Scattered snow showers and a few squalls impact the weather
  across the Central Mtns, Laurel Highlands and possibly the
  Middle Susquehanna Valley Thursday into Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front pushing across has gusts >30KT with it. Expect them
to diminish (to the 20s) for just a few hours before picking up
again, esp over the Laurels. 50KT wind is as low as 2kft at JST,
so the wind advy is well-placed as gusts should be into the 40s
frequently on the ridges of the Laurels (for 24hrs). Other
locations will have gusts into the 20s and lower 30s tonight and
Thurs.

LES is also a big concern. But, we are well set-up already by
mid shift and prev shifts. No changes to the headlines/WWAs are
being made, either for the wind or snow. initial wind flow will
be taking almost all of the lake effect bands/moisture into wrn
NY, but they won`t keep it all, as a gradual veering will drop
the bands slightly to the south (into a more W-E alignment).
However, these should only nip Warren County thru sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Again, the headlines are set-up very nicely, and we foresee no
changes with this package. Have wrestled with the grids to keep
the snow accums and timing as close to previous forecasts and
neighboring offices as practicable. The slowly veering wind
across the Great Lakes will drop the LES bands even more into
the CWA, hitting BFD close to sunrise or at least by mid-
morning. The bands will then waggle throughout the next 36 hrs,
but fetch will keep the heaviest accums over the normal snow
belt of Warren county and NWrn McKean county. Deep moisture
coming off LM grabs more moisture from wrn LE and slides it into
the next tier of counties south (Elk, Cameron). The next worry
would be if a long band from LH eventually meets up with LE
water and develops at least one longer band that could extend
deep into the CWA. At this point, most models keep the large
Huron-connected band to the N of UNV through Friday sunrise.

The big take-away: Snow for PA will be most-widespread and
heaviest on Thursday night and Friday AM.

The positions and strength of snow bands on Friday (at that
range any storm, really) are difficult to nail down. There is
some disagreement on just how fast/completely the wind will
back/turn to the west and southwest and make the snow go away.
Current forecast of lower PoPs on Friday aftn is reasonable, but
we may need to delay the exit/ending of the snow for 6+ hrs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The lake effect snow pattern comes to an end Saturday morning
as low- level flow backs and high pressure begins to build in,
resulting in a lowering subsidence inversion. There is still
some uncertainty with speed/timing, but overall guidance agrees
in returning precip to the area on Sunday. Thermal profiles
appear to be cold enough to initially support snow, then perhaps
mixing with or changing to rain for the last day of November.
Unsettled weather will continue into early next week as cold air
in the middle of the country sets up a strong baroclinic zone
over the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wind has yet to pick up at LNS/MDT with fog extremely slow to
lift there, esp at LNS where they remain IFR at 1830Z. However,
the cold front is coming in about 2 hrs and even before that
moves through, the SW wind may pick up as it has elsewhere. The
potent front will depart the eastern zones by 21Z. The wind will
pick up immediately as/after the front passes each location.
Expect gusts into the 30s at first, but a little lower peak
gusts for the rest of the night for much of the area. However,
the 50KT flow at 9H at JST warrants keeping the mention of 30+KT
gusts thru the night, and 40+KT are expected on the ridges.
Have considered putting LLWS in, but the mechanical/consistent
mixing an high gusts should cover the expected conditions.

The air behind the front gets sharply colder and light precip
coming from any of the upslope clouds over the W this
evening/early tonight will be snow. The gusty winds continue
into Friday due to the very tight pressure gradient.

Lake effect snow will affect BFD starting later tonight. At
first the LES bands will be north of the NY border, but the wind
will veer later tonight and Thursday morning. That will bring
them into the NW parts of our county warning area. That will
begin a 48-hr stretch of IFR-LIFR for BFD. But, as with all lake
effect bands, there will be peaks of MVFR or even VFR in between
the bands.

Expect very little snow for JST for much of the night and
Thursday, again mainly due to the predominant flow directing the
snow to the north. Upstream moisture feed into JST (and
AOO/UNV) is meager to non-existent. As the aftn continues on
Thurs, some bands will dip into KOYM and KFIG and may reach KIPT
around the same time they could touch KUNV (probably after
sunset). Thursday night will hold the most-widespread lake
effect snow and LIFR possibilities for UNV and IPT. By 12Z Fri,
snow may reach into KJST. The gusty wind could make the vsby
worse than if there was only snowfall.

Outlook...

Fri...Windy with gusts 30-35kt from 270-300 degrees; frequent
snow showers/squalls across the NW 1/2 of the airspace.

Sat...Improving conds; diminishing winds with lingering snow
showers ending.

Sun...Light rain/wintry mix developing from west to east;
restrictions possible. Precip may turn to rain across the south
during the day.

Mon...Mixed/wintry precip likely. MVFR likely. IFR poss.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST
Saturday for PAZ004-005.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST
Saturday for PAZ006-010-011.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday for
PAZ017-024-025-033-034.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Dangelo