444
FXUS61 KCTP 140531
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1231 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Continued to refine PoPs and ptype for Sunday
* PoPs have risen for the latter half of next week

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Sunday precipitation looks like mostly rain, but some
of the higher elevations could get a very thin, slushy accum.

2) Thaw next week comes with a high chance for precip, mainly
rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Sunday precipitation looks like mostly rain, but
some of the higher elevations could get a very thin, slushy
accum.

Small shortwave trough pushing across the upper Great Lakes will
help to draw precip just a little farther north than prev fcst
had going for Sun-night.

Models now in high agreement that up to 0.15" of liquid should
fall along the MD border Sunday aftn/evening. The measurable
precip is also progged to get up to at least Route 22. Temps in
mid-day will initially be mild enough for rain, but dynamic
cooling/wet-bulbing could lower the freezing level to allow some
snow to reach the hill tops, esp in Schuylkill Co and perhaps
even Blue Mtn and South Mtn. So, they could see the rain turn to
snow, but the QPF is low. So, no problems are expected with just
a thin, slushy accum over just the hill tops.

              ----------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Thaw next week comes with a high chance for
precip, mainly rain.

After a couple of days of warm-up, a baroclinic zone looks like
it will sink south into PA. It will then waggle back and forth,
never straying too far. The temps during that period may dip
into the 30s across the N/NE at times, so there is some mention
of RA/SN mix for days 6-8, but most of the area is expected to
have temps warm enough to keep it rain.

Maxes should get into the 50s in the S for Tues-Thurs, and at
least 40F in the cold hollows of the N. At least one of those
nights should stay above 32F for (almost) everyone, too.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak frontal system has pushed snow showers into northern
PA as of late evening. BFD came down below 2 miles, but now
up a bit. Models not quite as far south and east with this
as obs and radar show at the current time.

Anyway, looking at mainly VFR conditions today, away from
BFD.

Issue early on will be LLWS across the west.

Skies clear out later today, especially in areas that are
east of the mtns.

Lower clouds could linger in BFD into tonight.

Winds will weaken by sunset, as a weak high pressure builds
into the area.

Outlook...

Sun...Low clouds with scattered rain/snow mix over the area.

Mon...Low clouds linger much of the day. IFR expected NW.

Tue...Mainly VFR.

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Martin