100
FXUS61 KCTP 071035
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
635 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No new updates

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A nice end to the Labor Day weekend.

2) Uptick in heat and humidity for mid midweek.

3) Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A nice end to the Labor Day weekend.

A refreshingly low dewpoint airmass has settled in across
Pennsylvania and will ensure pleasant conditions for Labor Day
outdoor activities. With high pressure over the region, clear
skies, calm wind and quite cool temperatures have led to
widespread fog development in the deepest river valleys across
northern PA this morning.

After morning valley fog mixes out, Labor Day will feature
weather conditions be about as good as it gets. A few wispy
cirrus clouds will accentuate bright blue skies with abundant
sunshine, passing fair weather cumulus clouds, and seasonable
temperatures. High temperatures will range from near 70 in the
northern tier to near 80 across the south central mountains.

   ----------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Uptick in heat and humidity for midweek.

As the center of high pressure drifts southeast of PA on Tuesday
and Wednesday, return southwesterly flow will usher in an uptick
and heat and humidity. The never ending ridge of high pressure
centered over the Central US will also begin to nudge into the
Mid Atlantic as upper troughing over the Northeast retreats and
the amplified upper level pattern begins to flatten out a bit. Highs
on Tuesday will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s and Wednesday
will trend about 5 degrees warmer areawide. Combined with
dewpoints back in the mid to upper 60s, heat index values may
crest the 90F mark in the south central mountains on Wednesday.
Dry conditions will prevail and we`ll continue to enjoy a break
from very active stretch of severe weather we`ve dealt with
this summer.

   ----------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night
into Thursday.

By Wednesday night, a low pressure system will be moving across
northern Ontario with a cold front extending south through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. The pressure gradient
will support a notable uptick in synoptic scale winds Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday. It`s been awhile since we`ve had
widespread gusty winds, but we`re getting into the time of year
where such a weather pattern becomes more common.

Gusty winds will ramp up Wednesday during the day out of the
southwest ahead of an approaching cold front, and continue
through Thursday afternoon shifting to a westerly direction
after the front passes. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph seem
realistic at this point, with the highest readings occurring at
higher elevations in the Laurel Highlands.

The cold front will also bring a chance for showers and storms
ahead of and along the front. The risk for severe weather will
depend on the magnitude of a shortwave trough racing through
the region and any associated jet dynamics in play. AI NWP
guidance highlights the potential for severe weather in
southeast PA at this time, but percentages remain low (the
equivalent of a Marginal, level 1 out of 5, Risk) due to
lingering uncertainty. Vertical wind profiles look
unidirectional, so the primary hazard would be from damaging
winds. Rain arrives in northwest PA late Wednesday night and
will sag south across the Commonwealth during the day on
Thursday.

High pressure builds behind the cold front, giving way to a dry
and sunny Friday. There could be a few isolated PM showers and a
storm or two on Saturday or Sunday, but most locations will stay
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of valley fog will persist thorough 14-15Z this morning,
though impacts to TAF sites appear to be unlikely. VFR
conditions are expected once the fog dissipates with mainly
clear skies and light winds. Another round of patchy fog will
be possible into Tuesday morning, though it may not be as
extensive as it is this morning. BFD and IPT will be most likely
to see visibility restrictions develop.

Outlook...

Tue...AM valley fog possible; otherwise predominantly VFR.

Wed...Primarily VFR, although late-day SHRA/TSRA possible
across the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA could bring scattered SHRA/TSRA areawide.

Fri...Primarily VFR conditions, some potential for afternoon
SHRA/TSRA but uncertainty remains high.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Banghoff
AVIATION...Bauco