141
FXUS61 KCTP 200729
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
229 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Mainly cloudy conditions into Thursday
* Occasional rain Friday and Friday night precedes a dry and seasonably
  mild back half/end to the weekend
* Mild weather continues early next week before a significant
  pattern shift toward colder conditions around Thanksgiving

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Final update of the evening is to post a dense fog advy. This
situation is not like most of our dense fog situations. The
temps (and some road temps) have chilled to or even below
freezing. The ice sensor on KAOO and KJST have already
registered some ice accretion. So, this fog and the moist
ground from earlier today is likely causing some thin iciness
on objects and perhaps even black ice. Have started
conservatively in area coverage of the advy. Opting to go where
it is most likely with this first volley. As more places (like
State College and Huntingdon, and even places in the Susq
valley) get foggier, the next shift may need to expand the advy.

Earlier disc...

Still expect some sun on Thursday, but days are short now.
Given the clouds to start the day off, mid and high clouds will
not be far off, so high temperatures will be similar to what we
have today. Still a shade below normal. Some models have a bit
of shower activity edging into the Laurel Highlands by early
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As noted the last few days, the fast northern jet will push
a cold front across the area rather quickly on Friday, with
limited shower activity.

The southern stream looks like it will not phase with the
northern branch, so the area of showers and rain should
be moving out by sunrise on Saturday. Heaviest amounts could
be across the far southeast, as a wave tries to form on the
front. Temperatures across the northwest cool to around 32
by 12Z Saturday, but that depends on skies clearing at this
point to allow for cooling to take place.
--------------
Some new 12Z guidance (EC for example) hint that our area
might get little if any rain on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Trends for the weekend support a mainly dry period, with
temperatures typical for mid to late November.

Another fast moving frontal system by Tuesday, before a
a bit milder for a brief time, then a possible chill. A very
active and fast flow pattern supports the colder air over the
north central states edging eastward toward Thanksgiving. Also
have to watch for any lows that form near the southeast coast.
The main issue will be like on 11/10, where the cold air could
make it to northern FL again. Lake effect for our area will
depend on the directional shear. Too early to pinpoint that
type of detail. The main issue will be another round of cold
and windy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered over the Adirondack Mtns this
morning has its ridge extending south into Pennsylvania,
leading to light and variable wind and variable amounts of
high clouds streaming east across the state.

That being said, leftover low level moisture from the rain and
wet snow Tuesday night/early Wednesday has helped to create
dense fog in many locations throughout Central PA and this fog
with LIFR/VLIFR conditions will persist until at least 13-14Z
and perhaps until around noon in some of the deeper valleys.

The fog will lift to a fairly solid layer of stratus/stratocu
this afternoon as vertical mixing only extends up to between 1.5
and 2 kft AGL with only a light SE to South wind at under 5
mph.

The best conditions, thanks to the least amount of rain over
the past 36 hours and a several deg sfc T/Td spread will
continue to be across the northern tier counties of PA with VFR
through the bulk of the day before some late mid-late PM MVFR
CIGS develop/advect NE.

Pertinent part of previous discussion...

Stratus deck will gradually expand north and eastward during
the day on Thursday, eventually reaching all TAF sites by the
middle of the afternoon. This should bring MVFR restrictions to
BFD, AOO, and UNV, while ceilings at IPT, MDT, and LNS should
remain between 3000 and 4000 feet.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Rain with restrictions likely.

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KAOO power outage being worked by power company. MinT and Precip
values are fine as they both occurred before the outage
started. Using nearest-neighbor analysis for MaxT (averaged
40F). Will leave max wind/gust as missing.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>035-041-045-046-049>052-056.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Lambert/Bauco
CLIMATE...Dangelo