705
FXUS61 KCTP 241919
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
319 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered dewpoints across east-central PA Saturday afternoon

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Pleasant/dry pattern with comfortably low daytime humidity
continues into the last weekend of July

2) Turning more humid and unsettled into early next week with
the best odds for storms Monday PM through Tuesday PM

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Pleasant/dry pattern with comfortably low
daytime humidity continues into the last weekend of July

Cloud cover will increase into tonight, but no rain is expected.
Dry weather continues for the majority of CPA through Saturday
with just a low chance of an isolated shower/t-storm along the
western periphery of the Allegheny Mtns during the afternoon
peak heating cycle. We adjusted dewpoints lower for Saturday
afternoon over east central PA based on the hires model signal.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Turning more humid and unsettled into early next
week with the best odds for storms Monday PM through Tuesday PM

Shortwave energy diving southeast around the prominent upper
high centered over central and southern Plains will help to
eventually carve out a closed upper low over the eastern Great
Lakes by early next week. Expect a gradual increase in shower
and thunderstorm coverage Sunday through Tuesday with peak POPs
in the Monday PM-Tuesday PM window based on the latest ensemble
guidance. There will likely be some level of severe and/or
excessive rain risks to manage that are largely dependent on
timing/upstream system evolution at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR flying expected to prevail through the 24/18Z TAF cycle.
Some low level VFR cumulus will be underneath veil of layered
mid and high clouds spreading across most of the CPA airspace
into tonight. Confidence is low regarding patchy fog development
across the northern terminals overnight.

Outlook...

Sat...Generally VFR conditions with low-end (< 20%) chance of an
afternoon shower/storm across western sections of central PA.

Sun...Increasing chances of PM showers/storms, with some
restrictions possible.

Mon-Wed...Restrictions likely in showers/storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Multiple record low temperatures were set for July 23rd across
central Pennsylvania:

 * Altoona set a record low temperature of 47 degrees was set,
   breaking the previous record of 50 degrees set back in 1981.

 * Bradford tied a record low temperature of 38 degrees which
   was previously set in 1981.

 * Johnstown tied a record low temperature of 49 degrees which
   was previously set in 1983.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl
CLIMATE...Beaty