128
FXUS61 KCTP 301057
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
657 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Nudged dewpoints down slightly today and Sat.
* Next rain may not be for another day past previous
  expectations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Fire weather concerns today

2) Dry and mild conditions to start November

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Fire weather concerns today

It has been almost two weeks since measurable rainfall has been
observed across Central PA. A cold front has already passed
through about a third of the state, and will finished sweeping
through the rest of the state this morning. The few light rain
showers should dry up shortly, probably before sunrise. It will
turn breezy in the wake of the cold front with low afternoon RH
values (M30s - M40s %) and max gusts forecast in the 20-30 mph
range. These conditions will likely result in an elevated risk
of wildfire spread with PA Bureau of Forestry partners
indicating fuels are sufficiently dry/cured. Although relative
humidity values will remain low (probably lowest on Saturday)
through the weekend, the wind will be much lighter. Even still,
individuals should limit activities that could start a fire. 99%
of wildfires in Pennsylvania are caused by humans!

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry and mild conditions to start November

High pressure will control the weather The latest model
guidance indicates the dry weather will last for longer than
previous cycles did. While PoPs rise into the chance range
(30-50%) for Wed, they do reach 60% on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR continues across much of Central and NW PA with varying
amount of stratocu and altocu clouds streaming east in a weak
low-mid level warm advection pattern ahead of a weak cold front
that was nearly bisecting the state from NE to SW at 11Z.

Periods of MVFR cigs will occur at KBFD into early this
afternoon as llvl moisture off Lake Erie is lifted over the
higher terrain.

LLWS will be present until a few hours after sunrise across the
Lower Susq Valley with generally light to near calm sfc wind.

As vertical mixing increases in the wake of the aforementioned
cold front during the late morning through the afternoon hours,
NW wind gusts in the upper teens to low 20s (KTS) will be mixed
down to the sfc.

VFR will follow in all areas during the afternoon and tonight
night, though a return back to high end MVFR is expected at KBFD
after 23Z Friday.

Outlook...

Sat-Tue...A.M. valley fog; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Lambrech