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FXUS61 KCTP 061028
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
628 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* New details about the next chance for storms & gusty synoptic
  scale winds Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Pleasant and dry for most through Labor Day

2) Uptick in heat and humidity through midweek

3) Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night & Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Pleasant and dry for most through Labor Day

In the wake of Saturday`s cold front, a refreshingly low
dewpoint airmass has settled in across Pennsylvania and will
ensure pleasant conditions through Labor Day. An upper low
swirling around in New England will keep upper air temperatures
cool enough in PA to support widespread stratocumulus
development this afternoon along with a few widely scattered
showers. But an otherwise nice day is in store with seasonable
high temperatures in the 70s.

High pressure will build overhead tonight, with calm winds,
clear skies, and antecedent moisture supporting widespread
valley fog development by Monday morning. Lows will range from
the mid 40s in the northwest mountains to mid 50s in the
southeast. No doubt a perfect night to open the windows!

After morning fog mixes out, Labor Day will be about as good as
it gets. A few wispy cirrus clouds will accentuate bright blue
skies with abundant sunshine, passing fair weather cumulus
clouds, and seasonable temperatures. The only minor complaint
could be little to no wind, but shaded areas will be absolutely
mint.

   ----------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Uptick in heat and humidity through midweek

As the center of high pressure drifts southeast of PA on Tuesday
and Wednesday, return southwesterly flow will usher in an uptick
and heat and humidity. The never ending ridge of high pressure
centered over the Central US will also begin to nudge into the
Mid Atlantic as upper troughing over the Northeast retreats and
the amplified upper level pattern begins to flatten out a bit. Highs
on Tuesday will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s and Wednesday
will trend about 5 degrees warmer areawide. Combined with
dewpoints back in the mid to upper 60s, heat index values may
crest the 90F mark in the south central mountains. Dry
conditions will prevail and we`ll continue to enjoy a break from
very active stretch of severe weather we`ve dealt with this
summer.

   ----------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night & Thursday

By Wednesday night, a rapidly low pressure system will be moving
through northern Ontario with an attached cold front extending
south through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. The
pressure gradient between a 1024mb high pressure system over the
Atlantic and a sub 990mb low in Canada will generate a notable
uptick in synoptic scale winds Wednesday night into Thursday.
It`s been awhile since we`ve had widespread gusty winds, but
we`re getting into the time of year where such a weather pattern
becomes more common.

Gusty winds will ramp up Wednesday during the day out of the
southwest ahead of an approaching cold front, and continue
through Thursday afternoon shifting to a westerly direction
after the front passes. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph seem
realistic at this point, with the highest readings occurring at
higher elevations in the Laurel Highlands.

The cold front will also bring a chance for showers and storms
ahead of and along the front. The risk for severe weather will
depend on the magnitude of a shortwave trough racing through
the region and any associated jet dynamics in play. AI NWP
guidance highlights the potential for severe weather in
southeast PA at this time, but percentages remain low (the
equivalent of a Marginal, level 1 out of 5, Risk) due to
lingering uncertainty. Vertical wind profiles look
unidirectional, so the primary hazard would be from damaging
winds.

High pressure builds behind the cold front and the end of the
week/start of the weekend looks sunny and dry with low humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions return to all TAF sites in the 14-15Z timeframe
as fog and low clouds dissipate and will continue through the
rest of the day with scattered to broken clouds between 3000 and
5000 feet. Winds will be out of the northeast at 5 to 10 knots.
An isolated shower cannot be ruled out during the afternoon,
though most locations will remain dry.

Skies clear out again tonight and there is a strong signal in
much of the guidance for fog development. Confidence on impacts
at TAF sites is low as there is still some lingering uncertainty
as to how much the dry airmass in place over the region will
limit the extent of the fog. That being said, IFR restrictions
appear possible at most TAF sites. JST and MDT will have the
best chance at remaining VFR.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...AM fog possible; otherwise predominantly VFR.

Wed...Primarily VFR, although late-day SHRA/TSRA possible
across the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA could bring scattered SHRA/TSRA areawide.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Banghoff
AVIATION...Bauco