931
FXUS61 KCTP 081059
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
659 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Uptick in heat and humidity for midweek.

2) Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Uptick in heat and humidity for midweek.

Fog forming in the valleys of the northern and central mtns as
of 06Z. Should be just as, in not more, extensive than Mon AM.
The fog should burn away early this morning in most places, but
could take until 10 AM in the deepest, darkest recesses of
Central PA.

Abundant sunshine, mixed with some flat cumulus and high, thin
cirrus clouds will kick off the shortened school and work week
Tuesday. As the center of this area high pressure drifts
southeast of PA on today and Wednesday, return southwesterly
flow will usher in an uptick and heat and humidity.

The upper level ridge centered over the Central US will also
begin to nudge into the Mid Atlantic while beginning to flatten.

Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s today. We`ll add
another 1-3F on Wed. Combined with dewpoints back in the mid to
upper 60s, heat index values may touch the 90F mark in the
south central mountains on Wednesday. Rain-free conditions will
prevail and we`ll continue to enjoy a break from very active
stretch of severe weather we`ve dealt with this summer.

--------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night
into Thursday.

By Wednesday night, a low pressure system will be moving across
northern Ontario with a cold front extending south through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. The pressure gradient
will support an uptick in synoptic scale/gradient winds
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Expect gusts into the 20s on
the hilltops and also in the SE. A gust near 30MPH is possible
on the tops of the Laurels Wed night just before the front.

The cold front will spark SHRA/TSRA, with the majority occurring
before the front passes later Wed night N and Thurs in the S.
The risk for severe weather will depend on the magnitude of a
shortwave trough racing through the region and any associated
jet dynamics in play.

Vertical wind profiles look unidirectional, so the primary
hazard would be from damaging winds. Timing of the cold front
and dewpoints largely staying out of the upper 60s to lower
70s range are the 2 main reasons to think storms will not get
too crazy, unlike recent events. Timing of the cold front has
been similar the last few days. SPC outlook currently has a MRGL
risk area for Wed-night painted across the NW half of the CWA.
Seems in line with previous forecasts. The new Day3 (Thur-night)
outlook barely has the general thunder area into the CWA -
basically along and S of the PA Turnpike. The current WPC
outlook for Thurs paints a SLGT risk of excessive rainfall over
the SW quarter of PA - including the Laurels. However, it will
be difficult to squeeze out heavy rain without thunder/deep
convection. So, we`ll chat with WPC about the threat risk.

High pressure builds behind the cold front, giving way to a dry
and sunny Friday. There could be a few PM SHRA/TSRA Saturday
and/or Sunday afternoons, especially over the western mtns. A
more-active (wetter) pattern is in store for Mon-Tues. But, the
flat upper ridge over the southern half of the CONUS will make
it difficult for deep moisture to make it into PA ahead of any
shots of atmos forcing. The second half of the week probably
ends dry as the upper ridge pumps up over the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expansive river valley fog this morning continues to impact
AOO/IPT as of 11Z Tuesday, with fog likely to mix out quickly
with VFR conditions likely (> 90% chance) by 14Z Tuesday. There
is an outside chance that UNV prevails with a brief period of
MVFR as well as fog tried to sneak in from the northeast;
however, it currently looks like fog is too far away to get any
restrictions at the airfield. Recent HREF ensemble guidance
outlines a scattered-to-broken high-level cloud deck filtering
in later today and continuing through the end of the 12Z TAF
package. Fairly high (~70-80%) confidence (~90%) on there being
some higher level clouds, but generally all ceilings should
remain above 20,000ft AGL through 12Z Wednesday. In terms of fog
potential, slightly less radiational cooling will be in place
if high- clouds remain across central Pennsylvania so initial
signals will be for less fog formation tonight into Wednesday
morning.

Outlook...

Wed...Primarily VFR, although late-day SHRA/TSRA possible
across the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA could bring scattered SHRA/TSRA areawide.

Fri...VFR prevails with drier conditions across all of central
Pennsylvania.

Sat...Primarily VFR conditions, some potential for afternoon
SHRA/TSRA but uncertainty remains high.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Beaty