015
FXUS61 KCTP 131001
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
501 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Breezy with rain/snow showers lingering across parts of
  western and northern Pennsylvania today
* Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
  afternoon and evening; some could be severe in western PA
* Temperatures gradually moderate into the weekend before
  trending colder as gusty winds and lake effect snow showers
  return on Sunday and Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds have hung tough north of I-80 and across much of
northeast PA early this morning, but clear skies across Central
and southeast PA will give way to increasing clouds this
afternoon with daytime heating. Winds will remain breezy today,
with frequent gusts of 20-30mph, and lake effect rain/snow
showers should remain confined to northeast PA.

Highs today will be a few to several degrees below average,
ranging from the upper 30s in the north to lower 50s southeast
of I-81. Lighter winds tonight thanks to a weak ridge of high
pressure will support cooler temps by Friday morning - between
25 and 35 from northwest to southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday trends a bit better than today in all aspects. A bit less
cloudy, a few degrees warmer, a little less windy, and a much
lower chance for any precipitation. Friday may end up being the
nicest day we`ve had all week.

Dry weather hangs around Friday night into the first half of
Saturday. Then, a northern stream upper trough and attendant a
sfc low/frontal system will dive southeast across the Great
Lakes and Northeast this weekend, leading to a period of rain
later Saturday into Saturday night. Latest guidance depicts
decent moisture advection into the western third of Pennsylvania
behind a warm front and a combination of ample shear and
marginally sufficient instability. Forcing along the cold front
could support an isolated risk of damaging winds with any
surface based convection, which warrants a Marginal Risk of
severe weather from SPC for the western third of the
Commonwealth.

After the cold front moves through Saturday night, west-
northwest winds should ramp up behind it as cooler air filters
in. Lake Erie waters are still plenty warm enough and will
generate lake effect showers overnight. Rain showers may
eventually transition to snow showers by daybreak Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Breezy to windy conditions will accompany the passage of the
frontal system with colder air poised to return on Sunday. The
strongest winds will be in the Laurel Highlands, but widespread
wind gusts of 20-30mph seem like a good bet for Sunday. The
gusty NW flow should send lake enhanced snow showers/bands back
into NW PA to close out the weekend and start next week. A
northwesterly steering flow would place north central PA under
the gun for the most snowfall this time around, as opposed the
more WNW steering earlier this week that brought significant
snowfall to northwest PA. As usual, snowfall accumulations will
generally be confined to west of I-99 and north of I-80, but a
few showers could make it into southeast PA.

The next system is forecast to eject eastward across the north
central Plains and quickly spread precip downstream through the
Ohio Valley early next week. Timing across most guidance is well
aligned bringing precipitation into the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday.
Ensemble guidance favors the bullseye of precipitation dropping
into Maryland and Virginia, but there remains some uncertainty
with storm track. If the current trends prevail, rainfall totals
and precipitation chances would be highest in southern PA. Thermal
profiles appear to be supportive of potential mixed ptypes on
the front- end of precip depending on speed/time of arrival.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper ridging will slowly build in tonight and Thurs. Lake
effect clouds will linger into Thursday, though, before
diminishing and lifting N of PA. Clouds are mainly VFR except
BFD where IFR could persist throughout the night. Some clearing
of clouds across the southwest will ensue shortly, and leave
MDT/LNS without much if any cloud cover for the second half of
the night. The sfc high to our SW doesn`t advance much tonight
or Thurs. Therefore, while the wind gets less gusty tonight due
to lack of daytime mixing, they will pick up again 13-14Z and
some gusts could touch the 30KT mark, mainly in the southern
terminals.

Clouds will gradually lift and diminish Thursday afternoon
leaving VFR conditions at all terminals. Dry air will take over
and no precipitation is expected for PA except for a slight
chance of a light lake effect snow shower in the northwest
mountains.

Outlook...
Fri...Mainly VFR. Lighter wind.

Sat...WFROPA, but mainly dry and VFR. LLWS poss.

Sat PM...CFROPA. -RA and -TSRA, MVFR likely.

Sun...SHRA/SN esp NW half. IFR poss. Breezy.

Mon...Isold/SCT SHSN NW. Breezy.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Dangelo/Bowen