296
FXUS61 KCTP 080924
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
424 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* A break in the precip and fair/mild conditions for Saturday
* Coldest air of the season arrives Sunday night through
  Veteran`s Day with increasing confidence in light snow
  accumulation downwind of Lake Erie and over the Laurel
  Highlands
* A dynamic jet pattern keeps unsettled conditions around though
  the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rain has departed from the Lower Susquehanna Valley and the
subsequent trailing cold front will soon follow. Cloud decks
have lowered behind the front resulting in some patchy ridgetop
visibility reductions. These are not expected to last long, and
cloud ceilings should lift by sunrise. Min temps this morning
are on tract to remain 10-15F above average due to downslope and
heavy cloud cover. Only areas in the NW will likely see their
lows in the upper 30s thanks to prolonged cold air advection.

Fair and mild conditions will be the story for today, with high
pressure briefly nosing in from the south. A mid-level Stratocu
deck will be over much of the area and mainly sunny for the
Lower Susq. Maxes close to normals for the N, but still well
(8-10F) above normals for the majority of the CWA.

The upper level flow remains progressive and the next upper-
level trough will be digging into the mid-west tonight placing
PA under strong jet dynamics. Low pressure gathers over the OH
Valley and could bring a SHRA into the NW before sunrise Sun.
The low will be near Cedar Point 12Z Sun. Overnight mins remain
very mild (5-10F >norms) for early/mid Nov.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Another dynamic low pressure wave and potent cold front will
bring yet another period of breezy conditions and round of
gusty rain showers on Sunday. A deep upper-level trough over the
Ohio Valley, and a LLJ at 850mb will be present to provide more
than enough forcing to support rain over most of the CWA by
Sunday afternoon. Anticipate overcast skies for much of the day
with southeasterly flow streaming in moisture ahead of the cold
front. Instability will be limited on Sunday, and most showers
will be elevated. Gusty winds could mix down underneath any
elevated convection ahead of the front, but nothing severe is
anticipated.

Sunday night will see a transition from rain to snow across the
northwest and along the Alleghenies with strong cold air
advection behind the front. Temps will quickly dip below
freezing in these areas. The transition from rain to snow will
be relatively quick, and the period of mixed precipitation is
not expected to last long. Elsewhere over central Pennsylvania
will remain above freezing until Monday morning, so any
lingering showers east of the Alleghenies will likely remain
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*First cold snap and taste of winter conditions Sunday night
 through early next week

Reinforcing cold fronts after Sunday will usher in the coldest
air so far this season early next week through Veteran`s Day.
Deep troughing will be carved out over the Eastern U.S.
resulting in a very favorable NW flow pattern setup for the
first widespread lake effect and orographically enhanced snow
accumulation. Max temps will be 10 to 20 degrees below the
historical average Mon- Tue with wind chills in the teens and
20s. Wind chills likely don`t rise above the 20s and 30s at all
on Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

Accumulating snowfall is favored across the typical northwest
mountains lake effect region and Laurel Highlands upslope snow
region. Current ensemble guidance indicates plowable snowfall
(2"+) is favored in the northwest mountains downwind of Lake
Erie. Antecedent warm ground temperatures should limit
accumulation at onset. East of I-99 and south of I-80, snow
showers are possible but accumulating snowfall is less likely at
this juncture.

The cold December-like air does not last long and is forecast
to retreat by the middle of next week with temperatures
returning to near seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front now east of the area early this morning taking the
area of rain along with it along with a break in the lower
clouds. Though light winds have allowed patchy fog to develop in
areas near UNV-IPT-SEG. Westerly flow off LE will bring some
SHRA near BFD toward sunrise, and the lingering moisture
and upslope flow may bring brief IFR ceilings to BFD and JST
around 12z. Elsewhere, MVFR deck is probable (70%) at UNV- AOO-
IPT around sunrise, but these should rise to VFR (>FL030) for
the daylight hours Sat. The upper trough/shortwave finally
passes around sunrise. The bump in heights and subsidence behind
it should provide a decent flying day for Sat across most of
Central PA. Only BFD and JST will be left in MVFR cigs after
13-14Z.

Next trouble in wx will be a system gathering over the OH valley
Sat night. The sfc low will pass over NW PA Sun AM, and drag
much colder air in through the day and into it will last into
the middle of the week. Only some sct SHRA on Sun ahead/along
the cold front. However, cross-lake fetch and cold air that will
will lead to a few days of lake effect snow/rain (showers. Snow
will be the precip type for the typical Allegheny and Laurel
Highland locations (BFD and JST). If they make it down into
UNV/AOO/IPT, they may be SHSN, but more likely SHRA during the
daylight hours, and light SHSN/flurries overnights.
Accumulations are expected in the Alleghenies, particularly on
Mon/night.

Outlook...

Sun...Windy FROPA, MVFR/showers changing from rain to snow or
mix by Sunday night over the western and central terminals. Sfc
wind gusts 20-30kts from 250-280 degrees.

Mon and Wed...Blustery with MVFR/IFR conditions in lake
effect/upslope snow at KBFD/KJST. MVFR to low VFR elsewhere. Sfc
wind gusts 20-30kts from 260-290 degrees.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Bowen
NEAR TERM...Bowen
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Bowen
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
AVIATION...Dangelo/RXR