564
FXUS61 KCTP 281911
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
311 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Chilly fall-like pattern with low humidity continues through
  the end of August
* Reinforcing cold front to bring showers late today and early
  tonight: best chance north of I-80/west of I-99
* Meteorological Fall (September 1) kicks off with continued
  pleasant and dry conditions.
* Cooler than normal temperatures likely to prevail into the
  first weekend in September.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will continue to be the
story of the day amid retreating high pressure as a cold front
diving down from the Upper Great Lakes should be preceded by a
weak upper level trough this afternoon and tonight. Cloud cover
will begin to build in throughout the afternoon with moisture
increasing from the northwest. The trough will pop showers and
thunderstorms over eastern and northwestern PA late this
afternoon. Maxes in the upper 60s NW as the clouds thicken
there first, and 70s elsewhere.

The showers will spread to the south and east in the evening.
Stability rises as the evening continues, and not many showers
should survive into the southern counties as the airmass
remains dry (sfc dewpoints in the 40s). PoPs near 80 are good
for the N tapering off to about 30pct for JST-UNV-SEG. The
CFROPA should take place in the evening NW, and by morning in
the central counties. The SHRA should be tapered off for the CWA
around 2-3AM. By the time the front arrives in the Lower Susq
Fri morning, there won`t be much moisture left and forcing will
be long gone up into NY/New England.

Colder than normal temps are expected again tonight, but not
quite as chilly as Thurs AM. Expect mins about 5F milder, thanks
to some wind and cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Behind the front on Friday...cross-lake flow of chilly air will
percolate some SHRA off the lake. But, the overall dryness of
the airmass should limit them. Most won`t make it too far into
the CWA, and chc of measurable prcip from them is very low, so
we`ve left mentions out for now. Maxes Fri will be much cooler
than Thurs. Along the NY border, they may stay <60F. Under a
clearing sky and a dying NW wind, the temps should get back down
to about Thurs AM`s numbers if not lower across portions of the
north western mountains. High pressure will begin building in
again late Friday night into Saturday morning, and by afternoon
Saturday expect a prolonged return to mostly sunny skies and
high temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure from north-central Canada will keep it (very) dry
for the second half of the weekend. The compact upper low just
to our NE will finally lift away before the start of the work
week, but troughiness remains. The sfc high should fend off
rainfall until the second half of the upcoming week. However,
low level southeast flow could make for some pesky low clouds
at times. Temps rise only slightly for the first half of the
week (maxes in the 70s and lower 80s). The next chance for rain
will not arrive until late Wednesday into Thursday as the next
spoke of the upper level trough swings down from central Canada
to bring another cold frontal passage to the Mid-Atlantic and
New England regions.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Clouds will increase from northwest to southeast through the evening
hours along/ahead of a cold front. The front will move east/southeast
through the airspace and will bring light rain showers to BFD
after 20Z. Showers will spread southeastward through the
evening and into the overnight hours. IFR restrictions are
likely at BFD, while MVFR conditions are favored at JST with VFR
elsewhere. Breezy northwest winds are likely at most TAF sites
Friday morning behind the front.

Outlook...

Fri...VFR cigs with isolated diurnal rain showers.

Sat-Tue...AM valley fog; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Altoona set a record low temperature yesterday (8/27) of 43
degrees (45 in 1958).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Bowen
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Bowen
AVIATION...Banghoff/Gartner
CLIMATE...Dangelo