895
FXUS65 KCYS 112355
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
555 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will continue today, with isolated
  lightning and some weak storms possible for our western zones.

- Light snow accumulations are on track for the mountains of
  southeast Wyoming Sunday morning.

- Widespread strong winds are expected late tonight through
  Sunday afternoon. Fire weather conditions will be elevated
  over the High Plains.

- First freezes of the season will be possible for portions of
  southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle Sunday night
  into Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Scattered showers and low clouds continue this afternoon across
the CWA, with the stout deck just now starting to break apart in
our western zones. With enough destabilization and heating, the
western portions of Carbon County could have seen some
instability to promote the possibility of an isolated marginally
severe storm with stronger winds, but with heating struggling
from this shield of clouds, have doubts that we`ll see more than
a few rumbles of thunder from any activity developing and moving
across the region.

Ridging will continue eastwards as a Pacific trough begins
moving into the region, which will help to bring in colder air
while also ushering out our moist airmass. The cold front should
be just past our NE Panhandle zones by sunrise tomorrow morning,
with precipitation dwindling at that time as dry subsidence
takes over. The Snowy and Sierra-Madre ranges should receive a
few inches of snow each as snow levels plummet, but with dry air
also moving in a stronger snowfall event for the mountains is
not expected. Likewise, some of the adjacent lower level valleys
and plains could see some flurries as well tomorrow morning, but
don`t expect our first noteworthy winter system of the season
yet. With this trough comes a strong jet that will bring our
first high wind event of the season. High wind warnings have
been issued for our usual wind prones such as Arlington,
Bordeaux, and the Laramie summit area. These are valid
beginning in the morning tomorrow and continuing through the
afternoon. In house guidance has dialed back just a little bit
on the expectation of high winds, but ensembles are still in
solid agreement on 700mb winds becoming strong enough to mix
down.

Finally overnight as cloud cover exits and the strong cold air
mass moves into our region, expect morning lows to plummet to
start the work week. Widespread lows down into the 30`s are
expected, and with many locations flirting with freezing
temperatures, have gone ahead and issued some freeze watches for
portions of SE Wyoming and the NE Panhandle that have not yet
received their first full freeze. Some of these locations may
not be getting quite that cold just yet, but to be on the safe
side have elected to issue the watch and then we can update it
once we get into tomorrow afternoon and have better confidence
in what our lows will look like come Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The long term starts off with clear skies and chilly temps in the
lower to mid 20s west of I-25 and lower to mid 30s east of the
corridor. For Cheyenne, expect a season ending freeze with lows
hovering near 32 degrees Fahrenheit, possibly colder in the usual
cold spots around town. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient will
tighten up across the Laramie Range Monday morning into the
afternoon hours with south winds gusting in the 35 to 40 mph range.
Aloft, southwest flow will continue as a stout upper level low dives
south into the California coast, drawing moisture northward into our
CWA along with some energy that will keep a threat of rain showers
in the forecast, mainly across our western zones through Monday
night. This low will trek across the Great Basin Monday into Tuesday
and to our doorstep by Wednesday morning, sliding across our CWA and
continuing east through the weekend. There are some model
differences in the track and timing of this system from mid-week and
beyond; however, the general consensus keeps chances of rain showers
and the possibility of snow, primarily west of the Laramie range, in
the forecast. Expect temps to moderate slightly through Wednesday,
with highs topping out in the 60s while lows dip into the upper 30s
to mid 40s, warmest across the Nebraska Panhandle. Depending on the
track of the aforementioned system, flow aloft will become
northwesterly and temperatures will be on downward trend Thursday
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Lingering showers should quickly dissipate at CDR and AIA over
the next two hours generally coming to a close after 2z. Expect
partly to mostly cloudy skies to continue over most other
terminals over the next 6 hours. Isolated showers will approach
RWL after around 7z with a chance of -RA for a few hours
overnight, but the chance is less than 30% and not enough to
include major vis or cig reductions. Drying will move in by
sunrise with increasing wind speeds out of the west northwest at
all terminals on Sunday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Freeze Watch late Sunday night for WYZ106-107-117>119.
     High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ106-110-
     116.
     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ107-117.
NE...Freeze Watch late Sunday night for NEZ002-019>021-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...MAC