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FXUS65 KCYS 021956
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
156 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild to warm weather will prevail through late next week,
  with the warmest days being Monday and Tuesday.

- Fire weather concerns will increase on Monday, mainly west of
  Interstate 25 and the Laramie Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Tonight/Saturday...A shortwave trough aloft will move to eastern
Montana overnight, then to the eastern Dakotas by late Saturday
afternoon, sending its associated cold front southward across our
counties during the daylight hours. This cold front and shortwave
trough will have minimal appreciable moisture to work with, so the
only effects will be a wind shift to the north and slightly cooler
temperatures, primarily north of a Rawlins to Scottsbluff line.
Maximum temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s to lower 80s,
with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius.

Saturday night/Sunday/Sunday night...Rather benign northwest flow
aloft prevails. Sunday will be near or slightly warmer due to a
surface trough developing across eastern Wyoming. The low level jet
develops across the Nebraska Panhandle Sunday night, and boundary
layer progs suggest there may be a bit of low clouds and fog for our
eastern counties late at night from Chadron to Sidney, but
confidence in this development is minimal at best, so will leave fog
out of the grids at this juncture.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Dry and significantly warmer than average conditions expected
for the entirety of the long term period. The work week will
start with very warm conditions as a ridge of high pressure
controls the Western US, with highs in the widespread upper 70`s
west of the Laramie Range, and mid to upper 80`s to nearing 90
to the east. Probabilistic guidance is in unanimous agreement on
this heat, with only a 3 degree spread noted in highs for the
Cheyenne area specifically. These highs will also be almost 20
degrees above normal for this time of year, and record
temperatures will be on the line for several locations across
the forecast area on both sides of the mountains. Finally, this
will be the driest day of the week with RH values bottoming out
in the mid to low teens. This alongside breezy daytime winds
could return us to critical fire weather conditions, and will
need to be monitored over the weekend for any necessary
products.

The ridge will flatten out and shift a bit more southward
through the rest of the week which will help slightly alleviate
these temperatures, but expect highs remaining in the 70`s and
80`s through Friday. A slight increase in moisture could also be
possible, but slight is the keyword here, and we will still see
elevated fire weather danger thanks to RH values still dropping
into the upper teens to low 20% range. Our only indication of
any hint of moisture occurs on Tuesday during this slight
pattern shift, with a single time period of a slight shower
chance at the top of the mountains, so dry it`s impressive.
Unfortunately models are also in unanimous agreement on this
pattern, and the only variances noted in ensemble clusters is
how far east or west the ridge over our area shifts by the end
of the forecast period. While this could slightly increase or
decrease our highs by the end of the week, the message remains
the same no matter what - hot and dry through the first full
week of October.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Breezy conditions today
with gusts between 20-30 knots most sites, mostly from a
southerly to southwesterly direction, a bit more westerly for WY
sites. Winds should relax overnight, but may begin to increase
into tomorrow afternoon. CIGs either clear or FEW at high
levels.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG