Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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848
FNUS28 KWNS 082153
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

...Day 3/Monday - Southeast and Gulf Coast States...
A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue moving eastward
across the eastern CONUS. Within the base of the trough, strong
deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a dry post-frontal air mass
across the Southeast (including the FL Peninsula). While this may
promote elevated fire-weather conditions, preceding rainfall along
the passing cold front limits confidence in the development of
critical conditions -- precluding probabilities at this time.
Farther west, dry and modestly breezy post-frontal conditions will
continue across much of the Gulf Coast states. Locally elevated
conditions are possible, though the lack of a stronger surface wind
field should limit the overall risk.

...Day 4/Tuesday - Central TX...
Moderate midlevel westerly flow will become established across the
central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. Embedded within the
flow, medium-range guidance depicts a subtle/embedded midlevel
impulse moving into the southern Plains. This will promote a
deepening lee trough and dry/breezy southerly return flow across the
southern Plains. Given modestly receptive fuels across central TX,
elevated to locally critical conditions are expected.

...Days 7-8/Friday-Saturday...
A substantial midlevel trough will advance eastward across the West,
with strong flow impinging on the Rockies and eventually the Great
Plains. While timing/evolution of the midlevel trough is uncertain,
the overall pattern may favor increasing fire-weather potential
across parts of the central/southern Plains late in the extended
forecast period.

..Weinman.. 11/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$