Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 142059
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday...
On Day 3/Monday, a midlevel shortwave trough and related strong
midlevel westerly flow will track eastward across the Great Basin
during peak heating. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow
aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to
critical fire-weather conditions from southern NV into southern UT.
Thereafter, the midlevel shortwave trough and strong flow aloft will
continue eastward across the Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday. Given a
warm/dry air mass and increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather
conditions are expected across parts of eastern AZ and
western/central NM.

...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Deep-layer southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the
Great Basin ahead of an evolving large-scale trough. As these strong
winds overspread a deeply mixed air mass each afternoon, an
expansive area of elevated to critical fire-weather can be expected.
As the midlevel trough advances eastward across the Intermountain
West into the weekend, strong northerly winds will overspread CA,
supporting increasing fire-weather concerns over areas of receptive
fuels. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed during this
time frame as the overall timing/evolution of the large-scale trough
becomes more clear.

..Weinman.. 06/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$