Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
819 FNUS28 KWNS 032158 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The primary focus of fire weather concerns will be a potent, deep upper-level trough over the northern Pacific that will approach the West Coast on Day 3/Friday. This trough will push further into the northwest CONUS on Day 4/Saturday before shifting northeastward over the Northern Rockies by Day 5/Sunday. As this system progresses, a cold front will sweep through the Pacific Northwest and push into the northern Great Basin. This front will bring a temporary relief from the heat, dropping daytime temperatures below seasonal normals across the western third of the United States. Behind the first trough will be another potentially stronger trough to impact the western half of the CONUS by next week. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains... ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday... Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow ahead of the approaching upper-level trough will encourage a dry and breezy environment to emerge across the Great Basin and Southwest by Day 3/Friday. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced where the latest forecast guidance denotes an area of low RH and strong winds. This potential will become more widespread and expand farther east on Day 4/Saturday and continue on Day 5/Sunday as the upper-level trough progresses and the cold front continues its southeast progression. Given the tighter surface pressure gradient and stronger mid-level flow over the region, 70% probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions were introduced across portions of eastern NV, southern UT, and northern AZ on Day 4/Saturday and Day 5/Sunday. ...Day 6/Monday - Day 7/Tuesday... Between the two primary mid-level trough passages, southwest flow remains over much of the western half of the CONUS. While flow aloft will not be as strong and the surface pressure gradient will weaken, winds will remain strong enough coincident with persistent warm and dry conditions to continue the fire weather threat into early next week. Thus, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced on Day 6/Monday and again on Day 7/Tuesday. ...Day 8/Wednesday... Another potentially stronger trough is likely to impact the western CONUS once again starting on Day 8/Wednesday with strong south/southwest winds ahead of the trough. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced where this threat appears strongest at this lead time, but it will likely need to be expanded in time (beyond Day 8/Wednesday) and space as forecast guidance reaches better consensus. ..Stearns.. 06/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$