242
ACUS48 KWNS 141001
SWOD48
SPC AC 141000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability
concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the
mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream
developments inland and across North America, through this period.
Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant
perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be
accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the
mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley,
before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday.  This will be
accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear,
conditionally supportive of organized convective development given
sufficient destabilization.  However, there has been little change
from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an
initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture
return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle
of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic
southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend
across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid
Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent
subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean
vicinity.  It is possible that a short wave embedded within this
regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf
boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return
flow.  This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in
potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and
consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range
guidance.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026