287
FXUS63 KDDC 290922
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
422 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summertime heat will last through the workweek with a Heat
  Advisory Wednesday and likely another on Thursday

- A sub-severe line of storms in western Kansas tonight with
  more storm chances the next two days

- Cooler temperatures coming on Saturday into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft remains dominated by a strong
high pressure system over the central CONUS. Despite this, a
lower/mid- level low pressure system is present near the
Nebraska/Colorado border as a extensive line of storms have
fired in eastern Colorado. Excluding the continued preset of
heat, the storm potential is the forecast focus.

The storms have already produced a slew of wind gusts from
60-70 mph in Colorado. The line of storms have breached the
Kansas border andone 50 mph wind gust has been recorded. It will
need to be monitored if the storms can strengthen the cold
pool. The same CAMs have the storms weakening as they enter
Kansas and beyond, so the severe window is expected to stay near
the border. However, if the storms overperform, gusts of up to
60 mph are possible as far east as Garden City. Modeled
soundings have a gradient of dropping CAPE and climbing CIN with
the eastward extend. That said, PW values of 1.5" and DCAPE of
1500 J/KG will still be enough to produce a lingering severe
threat in the strongest storms. How quickly they die off will be
closely monitored.

Wednesday is forecast to be marginally cooler than Tuesday
at around 3 degrees cooler CWA wide. Realistically, the drop
will not be noticed as it will still feel hot as the hot summer
July stretch continues. A heat advisory will be issued for
Clark, Comanche, Pratt and Barber counties from 1 to 9 PM.
Traditional heat precautions are advised including hydration and
cooling breaks. CAMs have hinted at isolated thunderstorm
development Wednesday evening, but the continuity has been low.
Ensembles keep precipitation chances below 20% with the best of
these chances in the western zones.

Thursday is more of the same with very hot highs and marginal
storm chances. Highs are forecast mostly in the 100-105 degree
range with much of the southern counties at or above apparent
temperatures of 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory is expected to be
warranted for some of the counties Thursday. Long-ranged CAMs
have an MCS descending into central Kansas from Nebraska.
Depending on the formation and path, it may clip the
northeastern counties in the forecast area with severe wind
gusts. More time will be needed to monitor the forecasted
development. Some later redevelopment may initiate convection in
far SW Kansas late Thursday, but severe impacts are not
expected at this time.

A drier stretch is then expected to take hold into the weekend and
into next week. Temperatures will also be a tad cooler with
highs mostly in the upper 90s as opposed to the 100 degree days
of this week. No weather headlines are forecast to be needed at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period,
with VFR persisting, varying amounts of mid/high clouds, and
light winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ081-088>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner