527
FXUS63 KDDC 091131
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
531 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Coldest temperatures of the cold season early Monday morning with
  widespread lows in the upper teens to around 20 degrees.

- Robust warm-up by Tuesday with widespread highs in the lower to
  mid 70s.

- Continued well above climatological normal temperatures through
  the end of the workweek with no precipitation forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A longwave trough in the jet stream prevailed across much of the
CONUS, and several shortwave troughs continued to rotate through
this longer wave pattern. Since the center of this longwave trough
axis was to the east of our western Kansas region, frontal passages
continued to remain dry. While the coldest, deep cold air associated
with this pattern will remain east of Kansas for the most part, we
will still feel at least some of the effects, particularly in the
low temperatures later on tonight/early Monday morning.

Today, as an 850-700mb gradient remains in place across western
Kansas, north winds will continue at the surface, picking up in
speed to around 20 mph sustained once deeper boundary layer mixing
sets in my late morning/midday. Temperatures will struggle to reach
mid 40s east of roughly Scott City to Dodge City line while areas
west of this line, especially southwest, should flirt with or exceed
50 degrees by late afternoon.

Tonight, boundary layer mixing will cease. Clear skies, very light
winds, and low dewpoints crashing through the teens (especially east
of Scott City to Ashland line) will support ideal radiational
cooling and result in our coldest temperatures of the cold season so
far. The inherited forecast looked pretty good with only slight
modification, generally in low temperatures as there is higher
confidence in a larger area seeing sub-20F lows. The official
forecast follows pretty closely 10th to 25th percentile temperatures
with lows around 18F for Dodge and mid teens for typical cold
locations of our forecast area like Healy up into Trego County. Even
our far southwest locations should see lows around 20 from Elkhart
east to Liberal and on toward the Red Hills.

Moving on to the workweek, we will see a quick transition to warmer
weather as the upper level jet stream takes on a classic west-
northwest downslope aloft pattern, and we will see marked warming in
the 850-700mb layer as soon as late Monday. The surface will be
slower to respond with Monday being a transition day (highs lower
60s Elkhart to upper 40s Stafford-Pratt Counties). Winds will
quickly turn around to the south during the day Monday, becoming
southwesterly Monday Night with the southwest winds continuing to
gradually veer to a west to northwest wind Tuesday afternoon --
setting up for a robust warm-up Tuesday afternoon with highs in the
70s forecast across all of our NWS DDC forecast area. Even though
the winds will continue to veer to a northerly direction late in the
day Tuesday, the trajectories will be of downslope origin off the
Wyoming high terrain, so it will not be a cooling wind (nor be all
that strong either).

Mid to late week, a fairly low-amplitude ridge axis aloft will
overspread the Rockies and adjacent Western Plains, keeping western
Kansas in the warm sector with winds generally out of the south.
Temperatures for both highs and lows will be well above climo for
mid-November out to Day 7 (end of the upcoming workweek into the
following weekend), but we will be watching for a potential major
pattern change as all global models and associated ensemble systems
show a deep trough moving into the West, approaching the Rockies and
Western Plains in the Day 7-10 period with perhaps a trend toward
more unsettled weather for the central portion of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

North winds will continue this TAF period. Wind speeds will
increase to 15 to 20 knots sustained mid to late morning and
continue at this range until close to sunset. Early this
morning, stratus cloud will be found over DDC and HYS airports
with a ceiling around 2500 to 3000 feet, so we will have MVFR in
the first few hours of this TAF period with stratus scattering
out after about 15Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid