891
FXUS63 KDDC 122308
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Limited risk for thunderstorms across far southeast counties
  for a few hours Saturday evening. Most locations will remain
  dry.

- Forecast carries temperature uncertainty Sunday; temperatures
  will dependent on frontal boundary placement.

- Hot with strong south winds Monday, near record afternoon
  temperatures near 100.

- Next cold front expected to provide showers and thunderstorms
  Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Midday surface analysis depicted a well-defined cold front, that
had already cleared much of SW KS. Northeast winds behind the
cold front were above all guidance, per usual, gusting near
30 mph, but are expected to weaken by late afternoon as
pressure gradients begin to weaken. 12z ARW/NAM have caught on
to this faster cold frontal timing, with any convergence on the
boundary expected to be near the Oklahoma border by peak heating
late this afternoon. Indeed, most if not all convection may end
up in Oklahoma. Upstream air mass across the central plains is
quite cool and dry for September, and it appears models are
struggling to capture the cold front`s advance. Confined pops
further to the far southeast zones this evening. A small window
of opportunity will exist for a marginally severe storm across
the southeast counties, either along the surface convergence
zone, or elevated north of the front. High end/significant
severe weather is unlikely. Temperatures this afternoon will
struggle to reach NBM guidance in the cooler northeast winds.

Increasing midlevel clouds are expected tonight north of the
stalling frontal boundary, but dry weather will prevail with
Sunday sunrise temperatures in the 60s.

Some temperature uncertainty is apparent in the forecast for
Sunday, with models disagreeing on where the nearly stationary
frontal boundary will end up through the afternoon. NAM
solutions are much cooler, with the front remaining near the
Oklahoma border through Sunday. Given afternoon sunshine, and
850 mb temperatures still near 20C, feel MET guidance of 70s
north and 80s south is too cold, but NBM is probably too hot.
Global models are more enthusiastic returning the front to near
US-50 by late afternoon, so opted for 80s northeast counties
ranging to near 100 near Oklahoma. A strong capping inversion
(700 mb temps near 16C) is expected to prevent convective
initiation on the boundary Sunday afternoon. Still, an isolated
storm or two is possible Sunday evening as the low level jet
cranks up and starts shoving the boundary northward, and kept
NBM`s minimal pops for this possibility.

Monday will be hottest day of this forecast period, with near
record highs near 100 expected. Pressure gradients will support
strong southwest winds Monday, averaging 25-35 mph, gusting to
near 45 mph. With this downslope compression acting on a hot
well mixed boundary layer, temperatures will soar to record
levels Monday, and added 1-2 degrees to NBM guidance.

Strong shortwave trough crossing the northern plains Monday
night will send the next cold front into SW KS Tuesday.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front Tuesday afternoon, with strong to marginally severe wind
and/or hail possible. A large temperature range is correctly
forecast by NBM, ranging from 75 north to near 100 in Barber
county. NBM pops are into the definite/categorical range (near
80%) Tuesday night, with various signals of MCS development
across at least portions of Kansas. Will need to monitor
Tuesday night for heavy rain/hydrology and strong storm
concerns. Additional rain and thunderstorms are likely Wednesday
night, as SWly midlevel flow is maintained. With clouds, rain
chances, and the midlevel summer ridge removed well east of
SW KS, afternoon temperatures should be restricted to the 80s
for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Evening convection across south central and portions of
southwest Kansas will taper off after 03z. The two locations
which may that the greatest risk of observing thunderstorm
activities will be Dodge City and Liberal but Dodge City will
have the greatest risk (30%). Given this will include on a
prob30 in the Dodge City TAF this evening while leaving the
remainder of the TAFs dry. East to southeast winds will continue
overnight at 10 knots. These easterly winds overnight may result
in another round of IFR ceilings and patchy fog early Sunday
morning. Guidance once again not overly excited about this but
given the depth of the low level moisture, mainly near Hays, and
what occurred earlier this morning have decided to go ahead and
be more pessimistic with the fog (1-3sm) and stratus
(1000-1500ft AGL) at Hays and Dodge City between 9z and 15z
Sunday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert