180
FXUS63 KDDC 310520
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms most likely along cold frontal zone
  across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas, but much
  of the southwest Kansas region likely to remain dry tonight.

- Cooler temperatures behind the front providing multiple days
  of relief from the heat with highs in the upper 70s to lower
  80s through Friday.

- Nighttime thunderstorm clusters most likely late Friday Night
  and also late Saturday Night, but the severe weather threat is
  fairly uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The latest afternoon satellite imagery along with hourly RAP model
objective analysis fields showed a weak summer subtropical upper
level ridge centered across North Texas (~596dam at 500mb). In this
pattern, large scale tropospheric subsidence was confined to the
Southern Plains, and the circulation around the periphery of the
upper high put much of the central High Plains a deep, moist south-
southwest flow aloft. Earlier today, a cold front pushed south
across southwest Kansas, which by afternoon had reached a line from
roughly Hutchinson, KS southwest into the eastern Texas Panhandle.
The abundant mid level cloud cover (with even some persistent light
rain showers/sprinkles across far southwest Kansas) kept
temperatures in the upper 70s much of the day so far, per automated
surface observations.

Since the cold front pushed south a bit farther than previous
forecasts, we have reduced POPs this evening, especially across the
northern/northwestern forecast area as the focus for organized
thunderstorm activity shifts east and south along the low level
frontal zone. That said, we will continue to maintain higher 40-60
POPs along the Oklahoma line, but even this may be too high. The
evening shift will likely need to adjust POPs downward even further
as trends necessitate.

Our southwest Kansas region will remain in a fairly stable, cooler
surface setup, which will really limit organized convective activity
through Friday. This is reflected in latest NBM POPs being lower and
confined to the western counties late Thursday evening/night. A
stronger upper level jet core will advance toward the Colorado
Rockies Friday into Saturday, leading to a fairly well-organized
leeside trough axis at the surface. This will shift much of the low
level convergence well to the west into Colorado, which is where
much of the organized strong to severe convection will occur Friday
evening and also perhaps Saturday evening. Later in the night on
either one or both of Friday Night/Saturday Night, an organized MCS
will likely advance east into western Kansas, which is why POPs are
in the 30-40% range both nights (farther west Friday Night and
focused a bit farther east Saturday Night).

Looking ahead into early to mid next week, we will gradually warm
back up to climatological normal highs in the mid 90s across much of
the area, most likely returning around Tuesday or Wednesday of next
week in response to the climatological summer subtropical high
redeveloping and expanding across the Southern Rockies and Southern
High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Satellite and surface observations at 0520Z show cloudy but VFR
flying conditions at all terminals along with light and
variable winds. Around sunrise later this morning, low stratus
will bring MVFR/IFR cigs to all terminals through 16-17Z,
followed by a return to VFR. Otherwise, winds will strengthen
modestly to aoa 10-12 kts during the late morning and afternoon
hours, but relax to light and variable after sunset.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Springer