615
FXUS63 KDDC 130941
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
441 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front will sag south across SW KS Tuesday,
  bringing a wide variety of temperatures, with lower 90s near
  Oklahoma, and much cooler air near I-70.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected to favor the southeast
  counties, south and east of Dodge City, Tuesday afternoon and
  evening. Some storms may be severe with large hail and
  damaging winds.

- Dramatically colder air is expected Wednesday, with
  temperatures reduced to the 40s and 50s with widespread low
  clouds.

- Widespread rain is expected Wednesday night, heavy at times,
  followed by strong north winds Thursday.

- Cool fall weather will persist into next weekend, with frost
  or a light freeze probable Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Midnight infrared satellite imagery and surface observations
outlined a strong cold front arriving along the I-70 corridor.
The cold front`s progress appears to be well ahead of most model
projections, but consensus is the frontal boundary will
decelerate daylight Tuesday in the face of an unseasonably warm
boundary layer. 00z NAM/ARW depict the front near US 50 at
4 pm, but the front`s current quick progression will need to
slow substantially for the NAM`s forecast frontal position to
verify. At any rate, strong convergence is expected near the
triple point intersection of this front and the dryline,
somewhere over the central/southcentral zones during the
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
after 4 pm, favoring the southeast zones, mainly southeast of
Dodge City. Bulk shear and instability will both be sufficient
to support a supercell storm mode, but convection is expected to
be undercut quickly by the advancing cold air into Tuesday
evening. Current observations reveal air temperatures in the 30s
across much of the northern plains, and feel models may not be
appreciating the magnitude of this colder air mass. As such, it
may be difficult to achieve any surface-based convection in
Kansas today. Large hail, 1-2 inches in diameter, is expected to
be the primary threat Tuesday afternoon/evening, southeast of a
Meade-Dodge City-Larned line. With the front bisecting SW KS, a
large temperature range will result Tuesday afternoon, ranging
from 60s north to 90s south.

Rising surface pressures will continue tonight into Wednesday as
cool high pressure builds southward across the central plains.
Models forecast widespread stratus and drizzle developing
through Wednesday morning, in the developing warm air advection
regime over the cold boundary layer. 00z NAM really latches onto
this cold solution, usually the best guidance for cold air
wedging down the high plains. With a saturated boundary layer,
stratus overcast, and drizzle, with northeast winds and cold
advection, NAM-based solutions are unseasonably cold, struggling
to get out of the 40s Wednesday afternoon. After neighboring WFO
coordination, lowered NBM forecasts significantly into the 50s,
and this is probably still too warm given upstream observations
in the northern plains tonight.

Heavy rain is expected to focus on Wednesday night, as the
midlevel closed cyclone ejects through Colorado, and strong
forcing for ascent/diffluence aloft spread over SW KS. Global
models are very wet Wednesday night, with NBM pops 90-100%,
and rain amounts of 1/2-1 inch expected to be common. Some
elevated instability may generate some small hail Wednesday
night, but locally heavy rain and hydrology impacts are the main
concern.

The strongest cold front of the fall season so far is expected
Thursday, with strong north winds. NBM wind grids looked
sufficient, but are probably still too low, with gusts of
40-45 mph expected. Again, trimmed Thursday temperatures from
the NBM along with neighbors, with 00z GFS forecasting 850 mb
temperatures falling to near +5C at DDC Thursday afternoon.

Strong 1040 mb Canadian high pressure will arrive Friday, with
diminishing north winds, and afternoon temperatures only in the
50s, even with full sunshine. Near ideal radiational cooling is
expected Friday night, with the first freeze of the season
expected Saturday morning. NBM temperatures Saturday morning are
trending down into the lower 30s/near freezing, and upper 20s
are probable where winds are light and variable, and in our
typically coldest locations. A freeze warning is expected to be
required Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Flying conditions will need to be monitored during this time
period as a strong cold front will move across southwest Kansas
today. The front has passed through HYS as winds have switched
to the northeast and will eventually pass through DDC, GCK, and
LBL between 21-00Z. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop after
18Z that could lead to VCTS conditions for DDC and HYS between
21-00Z. As the front moves into Oklahoma stratus clouds will
develop after 06Z and will reduce the flight category from VFR
to IFR or LIFR category through 12Z. Additionally scattered
rainshowers are possible which could also reduce surface
visibility to 4SM or less.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro