787
FXUS63 KDDC 061100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front is scheduled to arrive Friday afternoon
  with strong north winds. Limited severe potential ahead of
  this cold front across far eastern zones Friday afternoon.

- A Red Flag Warning Friday from noon until 7 PM CST for Morton,
  Stevens, and Seward counties.

- Much cooler Saturday, with a rapid warming trend Sunday and
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Storms have all nearly entirely missed the CWA eastward excluding
Barber county where a singular storm produced severe hail briefly.
CAMs have the rest of the night without storms, but another storm
cell clipping Barber county on the way to the northeast can not be
entirely ruled out. If that happens and the storm is strong,
marginally severe hail is possible. Ensembles keep these chances
below 20%. Otherwise patchy/light fog has set up across the eastern
2/3s of the CWA with lowered stratus. With mixing and WAA, further
development of fog is not forecast although isolated/patchy areas of
fog may occur. Skies will clear a little after sunrise giving way
diurnal heating.

Highs are forecast in the 60-70s on Friday with the warmest
temperatures out east. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Morton,
Stevens and Seward counties from noon until 7 PM. Relative
humidities may be as low as 15% with S/SW winds at 25-35 with gusts
up to 45 mph. The more pressing question of the forecast Friday is
the storm potential in the far eastern counties. The uncertainty
focus in previous forecasts has been how far east the dryline
reaches during the window of initiation. Current ensembles have the
dryline along the highway 281 corridor. This would eliminate nearly
the entire severe weather threat. Both the HRRR and the NAMNST have
initiation around 5-6 PM near Pawnee county. Other CAMs have
initiation further east and outside the CWA entirely. Even if
storms initiate early enough to be in the area, they will
likely not mature enough by the time they exit eastward to pose
a severe weather threat. It should be monitored as marginally
severe hail can not be ruled out, especially if the storms fire
faster and westward despite model trends moving in the other
direction.

As the system on Friday brings a cold front, highs Saturday are only
forecast in the 50s. Saturday will kick off a 3-day stretch of quiet
weather that will likely be without a headline. Relative humidities
in far SW Kansas will be low, but current winds are forecast to be
light enough to mitigate most of the fire weather risk. Otherwise
Sunday and Monday will quickly warm back up with ensemble means
giving most of SW Kansas highs of >80 degrees Monday. Tuesday into
Wednesday, precipitation chances returns to the eastern
counties with ensembles around a 30-50% chance for rain. Enough
uncertainty still exists to make definitive statements, but
there is the potential for more active weather in the extended
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 458 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Low to mid level cloudiness will give way to mostly clear skies
this morning and continue through tonight. The only exception
will be at the HYS terminal where mid level clouds may hang
around. Winds will generally be from the southwest today,
gusting to over 25 knots by late morning and continuing into
this afternoon. Winds then shift to the northwest by this
evening as a cold front moves through the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Friday, the dryline will mix eastward into central Kansas.
Strong southwest to west winds are expected across Morton,
Stevens and Seward counties, gusting again to near 45 mph.
Minimum relative humidity will be near 15%. As such, another red
flag warning was issued for these zones Friday afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for
KSZ084>086.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Turner