379
FXUS63 KDDC 180411
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1111 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry for days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The weekend will feature a continued very warm to hot and dry weather
pattern. An upper level ridge will prevail across the greater region,
creating the continued summer pattern. Highs today should peak into
the low to mid 90s. There is likely to be a diurnally driven cumulus
field across the FA with the cloud bases in the 5000 to 1000 feet
range. A light SE/S wind is expected through the daytime hours. The
continue quiet weather pattern will continue tonight with lows from
the 60s in the west to the 70s in the east.

A 592 to 593 decameter anticyclone will prevail across the greater
region Sunday as well. The net result is still the same with a hot
and dry weather pattern. Highs should peak into the lower to mid
90s. Lows again are expected to range from the 60s out west to the
70s out west. Winds will continue to remain light and out of the
SE or S. Afternoon heat indices are expected to remain below 105F,
even across the eastern zones, where the humidity is expected to
be slightly higher.

A 594 decameter anticyclone will move very little but will like be
right over western Kansas Monday. 850 hPa temperatures are expected
to be in the upper 20s C to lower 30s C. This would support highs
in the low 100s for much of the FA. Will have to watch heat indices
across the far SE zones, where values may start to approach 105F
or at least get close to it. A heat advisory may be eventually needed
in this area to account for the hotter highs and thus higher heat
indices.

Long term models and their ensemble counterparts show increasing 500
hPa heights with the ridge to around 596 decameters. This would continue
to support the notion of hot highs and heat indices approaching 105F
across the SE counties. Lows will also trend warmer with values more
in the 70s instead of the 60s through midweek.

Ensembles show that the ridge may start to flatten out Wednesday.
NBM has some pops with the highest values across the northern zones.
This matches well with output from the AI models.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period,
with VFR/SKC and light south to southeast winds. Southeast winds
are expected to be weaker Saturday compared to recent days, with
another crop of scattered cumulus expected after 18z Sat.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner