807
FXUS63 KDDC 220512
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1112 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures returning to southwest Kansas this
  weekend.

- Rain likely (50-60% chance) Sunday night.

- Another shot of cooler temperatures will return to southwest
  Kansas by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

An area of high pressure at the surface is currently building
south/southeast across Nebraska this afternoon, while a cold
front is pushing south across the Southern Plains. A 500mb
trough is located over north central Kansas with an area of
850-700mb moisture and enhanced mid level lift was observed west
and northwest of the system. This setup has resulted in light
rain ongoing across mainly west central and north central
Kansas.

This light rain will end from west to east early this evening
as the upper level trough moves towards the Mid Mississippi
Valley and the surface high settles into eastern Kansas by
daybreak. Cloudy conditions however will persist through early
Saturday morning. Low temperatures will vary: areas where the
clouds linger until daybreak (east of highway 283) will see lows
at or above 32 degrees. Other areas will experience colder
conditions, with lows dropping into the upper 20s to around 30
degrees.

Warmer temperatures will return to southwest Kansas this
weekend. Chilly conditions will start the day on Saturday, but
temperatures will return rebound back to around 60 across all of
southwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. A short wave ridge will
build across the Central Plains over the weekend as our next
next upper level storm system moves east across the southwest
United States. Given the forecast 850mb temperatures at 00z
Sunday from all of the short term models it appears that the
highs should easily rebounding into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
There is a 20-50% chance for temperatures to reach the mid 60s
on Saturday afternoon, with the best chances west of a Liberal
to Sublette line.

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely (50-80% chance) late
Sunday and Sunday night. An upper low moving across the
southwest United States will track into the Southern Rockies
by Sunday morning, then across the West Central High Plains
by early Sunday night. Ahead of this system a trough of low
pressure will develop at the surface east of the Rockies. This
will cause gusty south winds and start to draw higher moisture
northward into New Mexico,southeastern Colorado and portions of
southwest Kansas. This setup will create favorable conditions
for showers and thunderstorms late in the day Sunday across
southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico. These storms will
then cross southwest Kansas late Sunday and Sunday night as the
surface boundary and upper low crosses the West Central High
Plains. At this time it appears the primary hazard from these
storms will be locally heavy rainfall across southwest Kansas
given the forecast PWAT values exceeding 0.7 inches and good mid
level forcing. Given the more progressive nature of this next
system the rainfall amounts are expected to be less than what
occurred from the Thursday/Thursday night rain event. Current
NBM guidance shows a 45-65% chance for rainfall totals over 0.1
inches. The risk for organized severe weather is very low (<5%)
based on the latest discussion from SPC and the NCAR medium
range convective hazard forecast.

Following the exit of this next upper level system early Monday,
another cold front will cross southwest Kansas. This cold front
will usher in our next shot of colder, more seasonal
temperatures towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Surface observations across southwest KS indicate MVFR/IFR cigs
and vis are still impacting all terminals, as remnants of the
recent precipitation event linger. Short range guidance agree
skies will be scattering out over the next several hours, with
all terminals returning to VFR by 08-12Z. Otherwise, light and
variable winds are expected through 06Z Sunday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Springer