127
FXUS63 KDDC 171716
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1116 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated risk for wildfire spread this afternoon

- Warm and dry through mid-week

- Precipitation chances on the rise later this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

08z 500 mb mesoanalysis shows a shortwave trough situated over
the central Rockies, with its associated flow stretching from
the Desert Southwest eastward to the High Plains. This feature
is keeping winds a bit more elevated tonight, and will continue
to influence the forecast area into this afternoon in the form
of continued breezy conditions. As the trough center tracks
across western Nebraska into this afternoon, expect low-level
response to pivot more westerly and increase 15-25 mph, gusting
occasionally to near 35 mph. This downslope component of the
winds will result in warm and dry conditions across southwest
and central Kansas. Temperatures continue to remain above
climatological norms for mid-November as high temperatures are
expected to be largely in the 70s, approaching 80 across south-
central Kansas. This breezy, warm, and dry airmass will elevate
fire weather concerns this afternoon as well. See Fire Weather
section for more details.

Subtle ridging will emerge behind the trough and just ahead of
the next digging trough that will be entering the western U.S.
through Wednesday. While a bit cooler than Monday, temperatures
on Tuesday and Wednesday will remain quite above normal with
highs in the 60s to low 70s both days. Low temperatures on the
respective nights will be upper 30s/low 40s Tuesday night and
40s to low 50s Wednesday night. Late Wednesday night is when we
will begin to see precipitation chances increase as well ahead
of the western digging trough.

With the farther southward digging trough, and developing low
pressure, moisture advection will occur across the southern and
central Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Latest NBM POPs have
once again increased into Thursday, now into likely categories
(50-70%). It appears slightly better agreement is being seen
amongst the EPS, GEFS, and CMCE, with some AI forecast systems
in support, on a low pressure center tracking across the
Panhandles and near the OK/KS border. This track will keep the
forecast area on the cooler side of the system, overall limiting
the richer moisture from advancing this far north. However,
enough moisture is being modeled to result in an expansive and
persistent precipitation shield to sweep across the forecast
area Thursday and into Friday. GEFS and EPS do have 24 hour mean
precipitation around 1" for parts of the area. This lines up
with 01z NBM probabilities that are currently showing 40-50%
chance at 24 hour precipitation greater than 1" mainly east of
Route 283. This would indicate at least a chance at more
significant rainfall totals.

After the storm departs throughout Friday, much cooler air will
filter into end the week and more seasonable air returns by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Gusty west winds can be expected this afternoon as a dryline
crosses western Kansas. Wind gusts as high as 20 to 25 knots
possible at times. This dryline will be followed by a weak cold
front overnight, which will shift the winds from westerly to
north northwest. The gusty winds during the afternoon will
decrease to around 10 knots between 00Z and 03Z Tuesday. An
upper level trough/low will cross western Kansas late
today/early tonight. Only some high level moisture will
accompany this system so VFR conditions can be expected over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Burgert