218
FXUS63 KDDC 021037
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
437 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will prevail for most of southwest Kansas for the
  next 7-10 days, through at least December 10th.

- Seasonal temperatures this week with highs in the 40-50s after
  a cooler Wednesday in the 30s.

- Light snow is possible Wednesday night in far western Kansas,
  but amounts will be light and impacts minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

As the storm system from yesterday has exited, along with the
associated positively tilted trough, a long stretch of quiet weather
is expected across SW Kansas. Tuesday will see weak ridging
providing mostly clear skies, lighter winds (<15 mph), and warmer
temperatures (up into the 50s). While the area is enjoying pleasant
December weather Tuesday, ensembles have another positively tilted
trough developing and digging across the Pacific northwest.

Ensembles have the trough weakening out, but not before returning
snow chances back into Kansas, this time along the farthest western
counties. Areas along the KS/CO border have a 30% chance to see at
least 0.1" inches of snow Wednesday. The best chances are around the
timeframe of around 10 AM to 10 PM CST. Models only have
precipitable water values of 0.5". Additionally, the HRRR and some
ensemble members have the leading edge falling as rain. After a warm
Tuesday, Wednesday temperatures are not expected to be cold enough
for freezing rain to occur. However the biggest risk with this
marginal event would be if rain or melting snow falls first with
snow falling on top. This could result in spot of ice hidden by snow
that may make people slip and cars slide. Otherwise, snow
accumulations are expected to be relatively minimal due to the
positioning of the system and the lack of moisture. Ensemble means
struggle to reach 0.5" and not even the 75th percentile gets to an
inch. Unless there is a forecast change, only far western Kansas
will see snowflakes and only areas near the KS/CO border will see
meaningful accumulations. The system brings colder winds with it
with highs only in the upper 30s. This is expected to be the coolest
highs all week.

After Wednesday, ensembles have the synoptic flow returning to a
primarily zonal regime. No significant (>5%) precipitation chances
for the rest of the week and beyond. Temperatures will be mild and
seasonal that SW Kansas can typical expect in December. Relative
humidities will be high enough and after Wednesday winds will be
fairly light. This will keep fire weather risks at a minimum. As a
result it is expected that the 3-7 day, and potentially beyond,
will be quiet and without a headline.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 437 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period under weak
high pressure. Winds will be primarily light <15 KTs out of the
west, then shifting to mostly variable, and finally ending out of
the north. By around 1Z, cloud cover is forecasted to move in, but
ceilings should be high enough to not impact flight conditions.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ