120
FXUS63 KDDC 121011
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
511 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another very hot and dry day is ahead for our area, with
  afternoon highs in the 103-108 range.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday evening, favoring our
  northwest zones. No severe weather is anticipated.

- Rainfall chances continue through the weekend, but
  retrograding upper level high pressure will suppress
  precipitation Monday through the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Late evening water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air
analysis reveal the classic summertime subtropical ridge is spread
out atop the southern plains, with a belt of modest west-
northwesterlies to the north over the northern plains. At the
surface, weak low pressure is centered over eastern CO and adjacent
areas, resulting in southerly winds across southwest KS. Short range
ensembles suggest the upper level ridge will weaken a bit daytime
Wednesday, allowing westerly momentum across the Rockies to expand
southward and deepening the surface trough in response. Gusty
southerly/south-southwesterly winds will be the consequence,
providing a modicum of relief from yet another blisteringly hot
afternoon as highs reach the 103-108 degree range. Despite weak
height falls, all precipitation should remain displaced to the west
of our area as there is no rest for the weary. Wednesday night,
southerly winds will stay elevated, preventing Thursday morning lows
from dropping below the mid 70s to low 80s for most locations.

Daytime Thursday, ensembles agree the upper ridge will re-strengthen
and slide eastward to the gulf coast states/Dixie Alley, with 500-mb
flow above the central plains turning southwesterly. Attendant
surface low will drift into southwest KS initially Thursday morning
before settling in central KS during the afternoon. While cool air
on the back side of this feature will be limited, at least a few
degrees will be shaved off temperatures across our northwest zones,
yielding a wide range in afternoon highs with upper 90s northwest to
105-110 southeast. Thankfully, a weak mid-level disturbance will
eject onto the central plains courtesy of the aforementioned
southwest 500-mb flow, bringing a chance for precipitation favoring
the west/northwest zones. NBM pops are mainly in the chance category
(25-54%) with a few pockets of likely (55-74%). No severe threat is
expected with this activity as deep-layer shear will be nowhere near
sufficient.

Friday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles
indicate the upper level ridge over the southeast CONUS will be
static through the weekend before retrograding towards the southern
plains early next business week. This evolution should engender a
similar forecast Friday through Sunday, with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the low/mid 90s northwest to the low 100s
southeast as well as precipitation chances in the evening. The
retrograding ridge Monday onward however will put a stop to
precipitation chances but promote further highs in the 90s to low
100s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

As the heat wave continues, we will continue to see more of the
same aviation weather conditions through this TAF period. No
major wind shift in speed or direction with our typical increase
in wind speed late this morning which will continue through
early to mid evening. The thunderstorm risk is too low during
this period to include in any of the TAFs at this time.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-
084>089.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ066-081-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Umscheid