065
FXUS63 KDDC 261655
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1155 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance of storms across south-central Kansas
  this evening, otherwise the majority of the area should be
  dry.

- Above normal temperatures are expected for today and again
  Sunday. Lows over both mornings will be mild.

- Still watching Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
  Monsoonal moisture and moisture from Polo could lead to
  unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Today should be drier than compared to the last few days. An
upper level trof will swing out across western Kansas through
the day. In the wake of the trof, there should be synoptic
subsidence, leading to a drier forecast. The main exception to
this is across the warm/moist sector across south-central
Kansas. There could be a few storms in this airmass and along a
passing sfc boundary. It should be noted that several CAMs have
no storms at all across the FA. Otherwise, the rest of the FA
will see a dry forecast today. Highs today will be above normal
with values in the mid 80s. Lows tonight will continue to be
mild with values ranging from the 50s in the west to the 60s in
the east.

Models continue to indicate that mid level synoptic shortwave
ridging will prevail across western Kansas Sunday. The net
result is a continued dry forecast with pops at zero percent. A
sfc trof axis will be well to our east during the day. The net
result is light northeast winds in the wake of this boundary.
For highs, we should still continue to see above normal highs
with values peaking in the low to mid 80s. Lows will continue to
remain mild with a mix of 50s to 60s as we head into Monday
morning.

The synoptic pattern begins to change by the beginning of the
next business week. Models and their ensemble counterparts are
forecasting a large upper level trof to begin to carve out
across the southwest United States. In addition, there could be
a tropical feature (right now it is Hurricane Polo) that begins
to head north across Mexico upstream of this synoptic feature.

A slug of monsoonal moisture mixed with moisture from Polo start
to advect across Kansas by Tuesday. PWATs from both the GFS and
ENS are greater than 1.30". This is abnormally wet for this time
of year. With this very moist profile and broad southwesterly
flow aloft... should help to create an environment that is
conducive to showers and thunderstorms and potentially heavy
rainfall. WPC does have much of Kansas in a slight risk on the
Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Tuesday. There still is some
spread in where exactly the heavy rainfall axis will be located
in both the GEFS and ENS. LREF probabilities or rainfall greater
than 0.50" start to increase, with the highest probabilities
stretching from the Texas panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, and
eastern Kansas throughout the middle portion of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A surface trough axis moving east across western Kansas tied to
the departing upper level trough axis will stall out, resulting
in weakening surface winds late afternoon through tonight and
into early Sunday morning. Areas of fog are likely to develop as
temperatures fall to the dewpoint early Sunday morning,
especially up around Hays. As such, we have lowered visibility
at HYS to 1/2 mile given fairly high confidence in fog
development. In fact, 12Z Saturday HREF ensemble shows 40-60%
probs of 1/4 mile or less visibility at HYS in the 12-15Z time
frame. Areas of fog may expand as far south as DDC, but the
probability of that occurring is still too low to add into this
TAF.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid