391
FXUS63 KDDC 170346
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1046 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A thunderstorm complex may produce strong to damaging winds
  along the I-70 corridor early Tuesday morning.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and
  evening. Some of these will be severe, producing large hail
  and damaging winds. High-end hail and/or wind is possible
  primarily northeast of Dodge City.

- Temporarily a bit cooler, in the 80s, Wednesday.

- An intense heat wave by late week, with afternoon temperatures
  soaring to near 100 Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

19Z surface and upper air observations show a 595 dm high centered
over the desert southwest with west to northwest flow in the central
and northern plains.  A 700 mb shortwave over eastern Colorado is
leading to a 1003 mb surface low in northeast Colorado.  The warm
frontal boundary is located just north of the Kansas-Nebraska border
and the dryline is just west of the Kansas-Colorado state line.

Tonight the main weather feature of interest will be a MCS that is
expected to form along the I-80 corridor in Nebraska and move
south and east into northwest and north central Kansas during
the late evening and early overnight hours. The CAMs vary quite
a bit in the solutions both timing and location wise however a
common theme is that for much of southwest Kansas with the warm
mid levels (700 mb temps at 15-17 (C)) should provide a pretty
stout CAP that will inhibit thunderstorm development. Closer to
the frontal boundary in Nebraska the upper level forcing should
be much better and with cooler mid level temperatures the MCS
should have ample CAPE to develop storms that will quickly
become linear. The line of storm should ride around the warm mid
level in southwest Kansas into the cooler mid levels in central
Kansas. This means the greatest POPs will be along the I-70
corridor around 10pm to midnight and then into central Kansas
during the early morning hours on Tuesday. Greatest threat will
be wind gusts up to 70 mph and brief heavy rain.

Tuesday the main forecasting challenge will be where the residual
outflow boundary from the overnight MCS sets up during the day
as well as the timing of a strong cold front that moves in from
southern Nebraska. Short term models suggest the outflow frontal
boundary setting up roughly along the highway 56 corridor by
late afternoon Tuesday. Strong warming along and south of the
outflow boundary should provide a stout cap however with
slightly cooler 700 mb temperatures north this should provide a
weaker cap and a better opportunity for thunderstorm
development. Around the late afternoon a 700 mb shortwave enters
into north central Kansas and this should provide the forcing
for thunderstorm development that will quickly grow into a MCS
along the outflow frontal boundary mainly along and east of
highway 283. With DCAPE values in the 1400- 1500 J/kg range and
0-6 km shear values 35-40 kts the main severe weather threat
will be downburst winds 70 mph or greater and hail larger than 2
inches in diameter. This could be a significantly impactful
severe weather event especially along and north of a Dodge City
to Pratt line. Another MCS is forecast to develop along the cold
front in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska with the line
moving through southwest Kansas during the overnight hours.

Wednesday should be cooler and drier as post frontal temperatures
should reach into the mid to upper 80s.  Afterwards a summer like
warmup will last through the weekend with the LREF upper level
pattern showing a large ridge over the central and southern plains.
NBM MaxT probabilities of >100 degrees are at 60-90% across
southwest Kansas suggesting that we have higher confidence in heat
impacts for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of HYS for the next few
hours, and maintained a convective TEMPO group for HYS 06-09z
Tue. Outflow wind gusts of 45-55 kts are likely. Other airports
are expected to remain dry. Southeast winds will remain
gusty/elevated through 12z Tue. Consensus of short term models
is for MVFR to low end VFR stratus to spread into DDC/GCK/HYS
06-12z Tue, with no stratus at LBL. Stratus ceilings will
gradually improve daylight Tuesday. A strong cold front will
bring a sharp north wind shift to the airports 18-21z Tue, with
north wind gusts as high as 35 kts. Thunderstorm placement and
coverage along/behind this cold front Tuesday afternoon and
evening is highly uncertain. Prefer to keep convection mention
out of the end of the TAF period until model agreement improves.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner