425
FXUS63 KDDC 022312
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
612 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are small chances for t-storms ahead of a cold front
  Wednesday evening across south central Kansas.

- After a very warm day Wednesday, much cooler weather is on the
  way by Friday.

- There are varying chances for rain for late Saturday night
  through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A weak cold front will approach western Kansas Wednesday evening.
Ahead of the front a surge of downslope flow will propel highs
into the 90s across most of central and southwest Kansas. There
is a small chance (10-30%) of t-storms Friday evening ahead of
the front (mainly across south central Kansas); and these could
be strong to marginally severe given moderate surface based
CAPE and a strongly veering wind profile. But given the
downslope surge, rich moisture will be swept into central and
eastern Kansas so that any storms will be high based, making
damaging wind gusts to 60 mph the primary concern. Given the
expected linear storm mode along the cold front, large hail is
not a major concern.

A much stronger cold front will arrive Thursday night as a
result of an amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes
and upper Midwest. There are small chances for showers and
t-storms along the front late Thursday night, with best chances
(20-30%) nearer the Oklahoma state line. Post frontal showers
are possible Friday (20-30%) given plentiful mid level moisture
in the presence of a mid level thermal gradient. The ENS is most
aggressive with the post frontal precipitation, with moderate
(20-30%) chances for rain exceeding .25" for places such as
Pratt and Medicine Lodge. Rain chances are lower across far
western Kansas. Widespread cloud cover is expected to keep
temperatures from rising much above the 60s. However, readings
could reach well into the 70s in areas that receive insolation
later in the day, with the best of partial sun along I-70.

Pleasant weather is predicted for Saturday as surface high
pressure spreads across the central plains. South winds will
increase later in the day across far western Kansas to the 10-20
mph range. Highs will vary from the 70s in central Kansas to
the lower 80s in far southwest Kansas.

A warm advection pattern is depicted in the various ensemble
suites by Sunday and Monday, with weak west-northwest flow at
mid and upper levels. Even the ensemble mean 500mb fields hint
at a weak disturbance passing across the southern plains. Thus,
there are chances for rain showers and possibly t-storms by
Sunday and especially Sunday night and Monday. The best signal
for substantial rains is across south central Kansas including
Pratt and Medicine Lodge. However, there are only 20-30%
chances for .5" or greater of rain even for these locations.
Expect highs in the 70s to near 80 for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Light northeast winds will gradually shift to the southwest
overnight as an area of high pressure at the surface builds
across western Kansas into Oklahoma. A surface cold front will
then cross southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon. As this cold
front passes, there will be a chance (20% or less) for
thunderstorms. In addition to these storms, a period of VFR
ceilings at the 8000 to 12000 ft AGL level is expected.
Following this cold front, some gusty north winds will develop.
Based on the latest short term models, this cold frontal passage
and wind shift will occur between 19Z and 22Z Wednesday in the
Hays and Garden City area, and then in the Dodge City and
Liberal areas between 21Z Wednesday and 00Z Thursday.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert