890
FXUS63 KDDC 052243
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
543 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk (1 out of 5) of severe storms this evening with hail
potential at quarter or slightly larger sized and winds to 60 mph

- Significantly cooler on Monday and Tuesday

- Ridging pattern mid to late week will return milder air and
  drier conditions

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

19z water vapor and upper air analysis shows a large longwave trough
across much of the western CONUS extending into the central and
northern plains with southwest winds aloft across much of western
Kansas.  A modest 300-500 mb jet streak is moving through northwest
Kansas and the right exit region is quickly approaching from eastern
COlorado.  This is leading to a Strengthening fgen band showing up
in the 700-850 mb levels in northwest Kansas.  At the surface a
sharp baroclinic zone is showing up primarily in our northwest zones
as temperatures in northwest Kansas have been in the 50s and 60s
while temperatures ahead of the front are in the 80s.  Winds ahead
of the front are especially breezy with a strong pressure gradient
in our southeast zones and a broad 1006 mb low in northwest Kansas.

For tonight CAMs are consistently showing rapid thunderstorm
development along the cold front roughly in the 4-5 pm time line
with the better forcing and moisture convergence along a Garden City
to Hays line. With lower and mid level lapse rates forecast to be 7-
9 (C) we should see quick upscale growth and a line of storms along
the front by 00Z.  0-6 km bulk shear values will be in the 40 kt
range and MLCAPE values to be around 1000 J/kg.  This will support a
few stronger storms capable of producing larger than quarter hail
and wind gusts to 60 mph.  The window of severe weather should be
brief as the loss of daytime heating is earlier and quicker in
October and CAPE values quickly diminish after 02Z.  Thunderstorms
should evolve more into rain showers with a few lightning strikes
through the night as the line develops cold pooling from the storms
which should move the cold front south through the night and lining
up along the highway 54 corridor by Monday morning.

Monday`s temperature forecast will be challenging.  The slow moving
front will be in our southeast zones during the morning and early
afternoon and should see some breaks in the clouds during the day.
With more southerly winds in the boundary layer for much of the day
we should temperatures make it into the 70s to near 80. The best
upper level forcing through the day should roughly along and east of
an Ashland to St. John line along the frontal boundary and as a
result the best opportunity for rain and storms will be in our
southeast zones.  North of the front we should see widespread low
clouds and stratus along with periodic light rain showers through
much of the day.  With 850 mb temps falling through the day to
around 9 (C), northeast winds, and low clouds I went with the
coldest guidance I could find in our northwest zones which may
struggle to get into the lower 50s.  HREF hourly temps also show
steady to falling temps along the highway 56 corridor and we will
likely see our highs in this zone in the morning hours with low 60s
and slowly fall into the 50s through the day.  With the upper level
winds pretty much parallel to the front from Monday night into
Tuesday the prog east will be slow however all of southwest and
south central Kansas should be post frontal by Tuesday.  With
additional upper level forcing along the front we will see another
round of rain and thunderstorms and this looks to be the best
opportunity for rain across southwest Kansas as POPs will be 50-60%.


Tuesday should continue to be a cool day as boundary layer winds
will be north to northeast with a high pressure centered over
eastern Nebraska.  Clouds should stick around for much of the day
and highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  LREF upper air
patterns are trending towards a building ridge in the desert
southwest by midweek that moves into the southern plains by next
weekend.  This should bring back milder temperatures and low
probabilities (<10%) chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A few thunderstorms are expected to form along a cold front this
evening bringing periods of lowered ceilings and visibilities
around the TAF sites. This could bring periods of MVFR to IFR
conditions. Low clouds develop overnight bringing IFR ceilings
to the TAF sites and continue throughout the day tomorrow. Winds
will generally be from the east to northeast depending on where
the front is located. Winds become light by sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Hovorka_42