604
FXUS63 KDDC 202316
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
Issued by National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread accumulating rainfall will occur overnight. There
  is a greater than 70 percent chance for rainfall totals to
  exceed 0.5 north of Garden City to Ashland line.

- Unseasonably cold temperatures Friday as the rain tapers off.
  Highs for most of the area will be in the 40s to mid 50s.

- Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures expected mid week
  followed by another chance for rain and another show of cold
  air.

- Improving rain chances early next week will be followed by
  another round of unseasonably cold temperatures towards
  Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Earlier this morning an upper level trough was moving northeast
across New Mexico with scattered showers and thunderstorms
occurring ahead of this upper wave. At the surface, a boundary
extended from southeast Colorado into northwest Oklahoma.
Precipitable water values this morning ranged from 0.9 to 1.2
inches, which is above the 90th percentile.

Widespread accumulating rainfall will occur overnight. Short
term models remain similar to previous runs in moving our upper
level shortwave trough from New Mexico across into southwest
Kansas, bringing improved moisture and lift north of a surface
boundary near the Oklahoma border. Due to the abundant moisture
and lift north of this boundary, widespread rainfall is expected
across southwest Kansas, especially along a 850-700mb
frontogenesis improves/lifts north overnight under an area of
diffluent flow aloft near or north of the 700-500mb low. As
this area of steadier and heavier rainfall lifts north toward
the I-70 corridor after midnight, the rain is expected to taper
off across far southwest Kansas. Further north and east,
however, the rain will persist through at least early Friday
morning, based on the timing of the 500mb trough crossing
western Kansas and the subsequent movement of the 500mb
deformation zone and mid-level baroclinic zone north/northwest
of the system. Given the potential for this extended period of
steady rainfall overnight and early Friday, all models agree
that locations along and north of a Garden City to Ashland line
have the best chance (over 70% probability) for rainfall totals
exceeding 0.5 inches. The latest probability for rainfall totals
tonight and early Friday to exceed 1 inch in this area ranges
from 30-55%, which could still lead to a few isolated issues
with water, especially in low-lying and/or poor drainage areas.

Friday will be a cold and damp day across southwest Kansas with
ongoing precipitation early in the morning gradually tapering
off during the afternoon as northwesterly winds usher in some
cooler air into southwest Kansas. NBM highs on Friday are now
cooler than previous forecast guidance but still appear to be a
little on the warm side given the lingering cloud cover and
precipitation along with cold air advection occurring during the
day, especially across west central and north central Kansas
where better cold air advection and the better chances for
additional rainfall will occur. Currently, expect highs at best
to be as warm as the current forecast has but be prepared for
afternoon temperatures to be as much as 10 degrees cooler.

These chilly temperatures on Friday will give way to warmer,
more seasonal temperatures over the weekend as an upper-level
shortwave ridge builds across Central Kansas and our next
Southwest United States storm system moves east toward New
Mexico.

This next upper level system may begin to impact southwest
Kansas as early as Sunday based on the ensembles. As moisture
and lift begin to improve across southwest Kansas ahead of this
system, chances for precipitation will improve from late Sunday
through early Monday as this upper low/trough crosses New
Mexico. Early next week as this next system crosses western
Kansas, a cold front will cross western Kansas and will bring an
end to any warmup that may have occurred over the weekend. This
cooldown will linger through the end of next week. There may
even be a reinforcement of colder air taking aim at southwest
Kansas midweek as an upper ridge builds along the West Coast and
an upper trough develops over the central United States. We
will be monitoring this midweek cooldown as cold Canadian air
heads south towards the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 512 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Pockets of intermittent light/moderate rain are likely to linger across
portions of southwest/central Kansas through late evening before beginning
to dissipate southwest to northeast across southwest Kansas through early
Friday. Meanwhile, prevailing low level stratus is expected to continue
through much of the period, resulting in IFR/LIFR cigs in
vicinity of all TAF sites. Areas of fog may also lead to
MVFR/IFR vsbys through early Friday. East-northeast winds around
5 to 15kt through late evening are expected to turn more
northerly 10 to 20kt generally after 08-10Z as surface low
pressure tracks slowly east near and along the KS/OK line into
southeast Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson