370
FXUS63 KDDC 150430
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1130 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooling trend will continue today and tomorrow as highs will
  be in the 90s to low 100s today, and the 80s to low 90s
  tomorrow.

- Thunderstorms are possible both today and tomorrow, with a
  slightly stronger signal for severe wind gust potential west
  of US-83 this evening.

- Temperatures will be mild next business week, with highs in
  the 80s and 90s for most.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Late evening KDDC radar observations show the decaying remnants of
another marginally severe thunderstorm complex are scattered over
our western zones, with an outflow boundary racing eastward. This
activity will continue to taper off through the rest of the evening
as the boundary layer stabilizes, and the majority of the overnight
period will be quiet with lows dropping into the mid-60s northwest
to the mid 70s southeast. Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles
indicate an upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS will
remain nearly stationary, with southwesterly flow upstream over the
central plains. Given the consecutive evenings with considerable
rainfall that have reinforced a cool airmass over southwest KS,
another few degrees will be shaved off afternoon temperatures with
highs in the upper 80s/low 90s northwest to the low 100s southeast.
HREF members all suggest thunderstorms are likely in our area for
the third consecutive evening, depicting convection initiating in
southeast CO and growing upscale into a loosely organized cluster as
it crosses into southwest KS. Models are showing a slightly higher
degree of organization as this complex moves through our western
zones, and this is consistent with marginally stronger deep-layer
wind shear of 25-30 kts. As a result, severe wind gusts may be
modestly more common Saturday evening, favoring areas west of US-83.

Daytime Sunday, medium range ensembles agree the upper level ridge
will begin to retrograde, reaching the southern plains by 06Z
Monday. Despite the ridge drawing nearer to the central plains,
partly to mostly cloudy skies and recent precipitation will engender
a noticeably cooler afternoon as temperatures only peak in the low
to mid 80s, save for the southeast zones who are expected to reach
the low 90s. Yet another round of late afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms are possible, once again posing an isolated damaging
wind gust risk.

Monday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles suggest
the upper level ridge will remain flat over the southern CONUS
through at least mid-business week, but begin to build northward
into the Intermountain West on Thursday and Friday. This synoptic
pattern evolution will keep afternoon temperatures in the 80s and
90s through Friday, along with precipitation chances favoring Monday
and Wednesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Radar observations show the remnants of a convective cluster are
bringing -TSRA to GCK, but no reduction in flight category as VFR
prevails across all terminals at the beginning of this TAF cycle. A
few brief drops into MVFR are possible at GCK over the next few
hours as the heavier cores move overhead, but otherwise VFR and
light/variable winds should continue through the end of this TAF
period for all terminals.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer