617
FXUS63 KDDC 281936
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
236 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch (for both flash flooding and longer-fused areal
  flooding) has been expanded east to a Meade to Dodge City to
  La Crosse line and has been extended through Thursday.

- Initial wave of showers and thunderstorms arriving tomorrow
  morning. Some localized 1"+ amounts can be expected by late in
  the afternoon with the first round of showers and storms.

- The peak of the event likely Tuesday Night through midday
  Wednesday when a large area is likely to see additional 1 to
  2" rainfall.

- The rainfall chances will not end until the upper low system
  itself passes east of southwest Kansas, which models now show
  not likely occurring until late Thursday or Thursday Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

After another morning of widespread dense fog, focused mainly on far
southwest and west central Kansas, visibility improved by midday
with low clouds continuing to scatter out early in the afternoon.
Prevailing winds were gradually shifting to the south-southeast in
response to falling MSLP in advance of the approaching upper level
trough. The forecast is pretty much a minor update to the ongoing
forecast with the main change being the addition of counties to the
Flood Watch -- which now extends east to a La Crosse to Dodge City
to Meade line as confidence continues to increase in a fairly large
area of 2 to 3 inches rainfall Tuesday through Thursday.

The first of the rain showers will approach far southwest Kansas
early to mid morning from the southwest which will expand northeast
through the afternoon. Both 12Z HREF and REFS high-resolution
ensemble system suggest local QPF in excess of an inch through late
afternoon Tuesday, although most locations will see around a quarter
to a half inch through late in the afternoon. This will just be the
first of several rounds making up this entire multi-day rain event.

As we head into Tuesday Night, the remnants of Hurricane Polo will
move across the Rio Grande and into eastern New Mexico, becoming
infused with the larger extra-tropical low approaching from Arizona.
The Tuesday Night and Wednesday time frame is when the peak of the
event is likely to impact our southwest Kansas area. Rainfall rates
will likely be fairly high over a large portion of southwest Kansas,
especially west of a Dodge City to Meade line toward the Colorado
line as low level moisture transport vectors will be maximized with
PW values 1.7 to 1.8", well above the 99th percentile for late
September at Dodge City. Rainfall rates Tuesday Night into Wednesday
will likely exceed 2"/hr with the strongest convection, and there
may be quite a bit of it training over some of the same locations.
This environmental setting strongly favors flash flooding. This risk
will expand northeastward during the day Wednesday into Wednesday
Night and we have collaborated with neighboring NWS offices GLD,
GID, and ICT to expand the Flood Watch and extending the watch into
Thursday -- as any additional rainfall later Wednesday Night through
Thursday will lead to additional areal flooding (albeit, not flashy
in nature).

As the mid level dry intrusion pushes north across southwest Kansas
during the day Wednesday, we will have to watch for redevelopment of
surface-based convection later in the afternoon/evening near the
surface low. Any direct insolation in the afternoon would allow
temperatures to warm to around 80F or slightly higher, and with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70F, SBCAPE will likely rapidly
increase, supporting a small region of severe storm risk near and
east of the surface low, which by late afternoon/early evening will
likely be near Ulysses in far southwest KS. The main upper low will
likely still be meandering east across eastern New Mexico into the
TX Panhandle Wednesday Night into Thursday with even more rounds of
shower and thunderstorm potential. This is the reason the Flood
Watch was continued through Thursday as any additional rainfall from
the final deformation zone would lead to areal flooding concerns.

When all is said and done by late Thursday/Thursday Night,
widespread 1.5 to 2.5" will likely have accumulated across the
region. There will also likely be scattered locations with amounts
in the 3.5" to 4.5" range if some areas keep getting hit by each
successive rounds of rain/thunderstorms. The latest 13Z run of the
NBM continues to show high 48-hr amounts with 3"+ probabilities of
30 to 50% within the earlier discussed Flood Watch region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Low stratus cloud resulting in IFR flight category continued
midday across far southwest and west central Kansas, which is
forecast to continue scattering out to eventual VFR flight
category. Prevailing wind will continue from the south to
southeast ahead of significant, rainy storm system. From an
aviation weather standpoint, airports will begin to feel the
influence of this approaching system with scattered rain showers
as early as early-mid morning Tuesday (initially LBL and GCK).
Flight category most locations should remain VFR much of the day
Tuesday except in stronger rain showers/isolated thunderstorms
with any widespread flight category deterioration to MVFR or IFR
not until later Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>087.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid