761
FXUS63 KDDC 121700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Limited risk for thunderstorms across far southeast counties
  for a few hours Saturday evening. Most locations will remain
  dry.

- Forecast carries temperature uncertainty Sunday; temperatures
  will dependent on frontal boundary placement.

- Hot with strong south winds Monday, near record afternoon
  temperatures near 100.

- Next cold front expected to provide showers and thunderstorms
  Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Midday surface analysis depicted a well-defined cold front, that
had already cleared much of SW KS. Northeast winds behind the
cold front were above all guidance, per usual, gusting near
30 mph, but are expected to weaken by late afternoon as
pressure gradients begin to weaken. 12z ARW/NAM have caught on
to this faster cold frontal timing, with any convergence on the
boundary expected to be near the Oklahoma border by peak heating
late this afternoon. Indeed, most if not all convection may end
up in Oklahoma. Upstream air mass across the central plains is
quite cool and dry for September, and it appears models are
struggling to capture the cold front`s advance. Confined pops
further to the far southeast zones this evening. A small window
of opportunity will exist for a marginally severe storm across
the southeast counties, either along the surface convergence
zone, or elevated north of the front. High end/significant
severe weather is unlikely. Temperatures this afternoon will
struggle to reach NBM guidance in the cooler northeast winds.

Increasing midlevel clouds are expected tonight north of the
stalling frontal boundary, but dry weather will prevail with
Sunday sunrise temperatures in the 60s.

Some temperature uncertainty is apparent in the forecast for
Sunday, with models disagreeing on where the nearly stationary
frontal boundary will end up through the afternoon. NAM
solutions are much cooler, with the front remaining near the
Oklahoma border through Sunday. Given afternoon sunshine, and
850 mb temperatures still near 20C, feel MET guidance of 70s
north and 80s south is too cold, but NBM is probably too hot.
Global models are more enthusiastic returning the front to near
US-50 by late afternoon, so opted for 80s northeast counties
ranging to near 100 near Oklahoma. A strong capping inversion
(700 mb temps near 16C) is expected to prevent convective
initiation on the boundary Sunday afternoon. Still, an isolated
storm or two is possible Sunday evening as the low level jet
cranks up and starts shoving the boundary northward, and kept
NBM`s minimal pops for this possibility.

Monday will be hottest day of this forecast period, with near
record highs near 100 expected. Pressure gradients will support
strong southwest winds Monday, averaging 25-35 mph, gusting to
near 45 mph. With this downslope compression acting on a hot
well mixed boundary layer, temperatures will soar to record
levels Monday, and added 1-2 degrees to NBM guidance.

Strong shortwave trough crossing the northern plains Monday
night will send the next cold front into SW KS Tuesday.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front Tuesday afternoon, with strong to marginally severe wind
and/or hail possible. A large temperature range is correctly
forecast by NBM, ranging from 75 north to near 100 in Barber
county. NBM pops are into the definite/categorical range (near
80%) Tuesday night, with various signals of MCS development
across at least portions of Kansas. Will need to monitor
Tuesday night for heavy rain/hydrology and strong storm
concerns. Additional rain and thunderstorms are likely Wednesday
night, as SWly midlevel flow is maintained. With clouds, rain
chances, and the midlevel summer ridge removed well east of
SW KS, afternoon temperatures should be restricted to the 80s
for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR is expected to continue through this TAF period. Surface
analysis at 1530z showed the cold front had already cleared HYS,
GCK and DDC with elevated northeast winds gusting near 30 kts.
The cold front will clear LBL soon. With the faster cold front
timing, any thunderstorms in this period will be well southeast
of the airports, and this set of TAFs was kept dry. Increasing
midlevel clouds are expected overnight through 12z Sun behind
the front, but VFR is expected to continue. Light northeast will
prevail through Sunday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
KEY MESSAGES...Turner