344
FXUS63 KDDC 302214
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginally severe storms may impact far southwest Kansas late
  tonight

- Weak "cool front" moves through late tonight into the morning
  hours

- Near normal temperatures over the weekend, hot next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

SPC has drawn up a risk level 1 out of 5 (marginal) for strong storms
mid to late evening. The 12Z CAMs are in general agreement that storms
are expected to develop off the Raton Mesa and could impact far southwest
Kansas after 6 pm tonight. The main impact/threat would be strong
outflow winds of 50 to 60 mph, since the environment will be hot
and mixed with plenty of DCAPE forecast. Again, it looks like that
far southwest Kansas stands to see the highest chance for storm activity
tonight. The rest of the FA is likely to remain on the dry side.
Otherwise, a weak boundary will move across the state late tonight
and into the morning hours. The main impact will be wind shift with
northerly gusty winds in the wake of the front. Otherwise, tonight
will see lows mainly in the 60s.

The second impact from the passage of the weak boundary will be a
slight cool down in highs. Actually, highs will be fairly close to
normal values with highs peaking in the lower 90s. Lows once again
in the 60s are expected heading into Sunday morning. No precipitation
is expected other than the storms for Thursday evening.

The mid level anticyclone will move from the southwest part of the
United States to over the Rockies and plains by Wednesday and Thursday.
This supports the notion of a dry forecast with increasing highs
through the business week. Highs should peak into the upper 90s to
lower 10s as we close out the business week. Lows will also trend
warmer with more 70s instead of 60s, as we finish out the rest of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 512 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR clouds above 6000ft AGL will increase late today and early
tonight as afternoon convection over eastern Colorado develops
and moves east into portions of southwest Kansas after 00z
Friday. At this time it appear that only Liberal will have a
chance for a few of these storms between 00z and 03z. For Garden
City, Dodge City and Hays, the chance for convection increases
after 03z with the highest potential occurring in the Hays area
between 04z and 09z Friday as a cold front moves crosses the
area. This cold front will continue to move south across the
remainder of southwest Kansas overnight. Southerly winds at 10
to 15 knots ahead of the cold front will shift to the northwest
and increase into the 15 to 25 knot range as this cold front
passes.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ086>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert