772
FXXX12 KWNP 121231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Oct 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with minor C-class flare activity
observed. Region 4549 (N09W75, Dao/beta-delta) continued to maintain a
slight delta magnetic configuration, but classification is becoming
difficult as it approaches the western limb. Region 4545 (N17W79,
Bxo/beta) contributed the largest flare of the period, a C1.2 flare at
11/1701 UTC, but foreshortening effects are also impacting the accuracy
of its classification. Region 4548 (S13W46, Hsx/alpha) remained stable
and inactive. Region 4551 (S14E41, Eko/beta) simplified and was mostly
inactive; Region 4553 (N07E54, Bxo/beta) was similarly inactive. A new
region was numbered this period just east of Region 4553: Region 4554
(N07E68, Cro/beta).

Beginning at approximately 11/2150 UTC, a long filament just NE of the
southern coronal hole erupted. An associated CME was first observed in
LASCO C2 imagery at 11/2300 UTC and in CCOR2 imagery at 11/2330 UTC.
Modeling suggests the majority of the bulk material will pass behind
Earth orbit, however there is a slight chance for a minor glancing blow
on 14 Oct.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels (90-99%) with M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely (50-55%) and a slight chance for
X-flares (R3-Strong) through 13 Oct, primarily due to the flaring
potential of Region 4549. By 14 Oct, low levels are still expected
(85%), but chances for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) drop to
(45%), with little chance for X-flare activity as Region 4549 exits the
disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels,
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels through 12 Oct before increasing to high levels on 13-14
Oct. There is a slight chance (10%) for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event exceeding the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold through 12 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a gradual return to background
conditions. Total field (Bt) maintained a consistent average of 6 nT,
with a thoroughly neutral Bz, throughout the entire period, with a
predominantly negative phi angle. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased
from ~680 km/s to end the period near 465 km/s.

.Forecast...
Background solar wind conditions are anticipated to persist through most
12 Oct. Late in the day and into 13 Oct, a north-south oriented negative
polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position,
re-enhancing the solar wind environment. CH effects are expected to
persist through 13 Oct before slowly subsiding on 14 Oct. There is a
small chance the IMF could see additional enhancements on 13 Oct from
the 11 Oct CME and on 14 Oct the 12 Oct filament CME, however confidence
is low in these forecasts.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled levels early on 12 Oct
as CME effects diminish and weak -CH HSS influence from the southern CH
persists. By late on 12 Oct and into 13 Oct, conditions are expected to
increase to mostly active conditions, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming
likely on 13 Oct, as the north-south oriented negative polarity CH HSS
moves into a geoeffective position. By 14 Oct, quiet to unsettled levels
are expected to return as CH HSS influence taper off.