Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
438 FXXX12 KWNP 201231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 20 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4284 (S07W51, Dai/beta) grew slightly in the early part of the period, but was in decay after 19/0900 UTC. New Region 4287 (N02E58, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. A Type II radio sweep (est 695 km/s) was observed at 19/2215 UTC, likely associated with a B9.0 flare at 19/2215 UTC from just beyond the East limb. A Type IV sweep was observed between 20/0023-0130 UTC associated with far-sided activity. Though notable CME activity was observed in coronagraph imagery, all of the ejecta has originated from the far side of the disk. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with slight chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over 19-21 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,438 pfu at 19/1350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 20 Nov before decreasing to moderate levels on 21 Nov following CH HSS onset. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 22 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels until ~20/0900 UTC, when an enhancement occurred - likely associated with the beginning of a CIR ahead of a CH HSS. Total field increased from ~6 nT to 15 nT while the Bz component was between +8/-2 nT. Solar wind speeds were between ~350-400 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative. .Forecast... By mid to late on 20 Nov, a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing a minor enhancement in the solar wind. HSS activity is expected to continue into 21 Nov and wane through 22 Nov. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550 km/s range is likely based on recurrent values. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected beginning mid to late on 20 Nov and continuing through 21 Nov with CH HSS onset. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 22 Nov as HSS conditions diminish.