Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
280 FXXX12 KWNP 091231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 4482 (S09E22, Eko/beta-gamma) was the source of two notable impulsive events: an M1.5/1N flare at 08/1756 UTC and an M1.1/Sf flare at 09/0227 UTC. Frequent low-level B- and C-class flaring also occurred from Region 4485 (S10W34, Dai/beta-delta), including a C2.7/Sf flare at 09/0713 UTC. There are currently five numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4482 no longer has a delta configuration but retains its mixed polarity and showed a minor decline in penumbral extent within its trailing spots. Region 4485 continues to grow with new flux emergence and has developed a small delta spot. Region 4487 (N09E20, Cro/beta) showed small new emergence and consolidation, growing some rudimentary penumbra. The remaining regions are stable and unremarkable. EUV waves observed in SUVI imagery hinted at an eruption associated with the C2.7 flare from Region 4485. The eruption was first visible in STEREO COR2 imagery beginning at 09/0753 UTC and GOES CCOR1 imagery at 09/0845 UTC. LASCO imagery was unavailable at the time of writing. Analysis of this event is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 11 July, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong and greater) events due to the complexity and development of regions 4482 and 4485. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at low to moderate levels, with a peak flux of 772 pfu observed at 09/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to moderate levels through 09 July, with a return to high levels anticipated for 10-11 July under high-speed stream influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to remain at background levels through 11 July. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind speed started the period around 350 km/s and gradually increased, reaching over 470 km/s by the end of the period. A heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossing was observed near 09/1030 UTC, accompanied by an enhancement in density and a drop in temperature. This was followed near 09/1130 UTC by a sharp increase in temperature and speed alongside a drop in density, consistent with the onset of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) ranged between 2 and 13 nT, while the North-South (Bz) component was highly variable with deflections between +/- 10 nT. The phi angle was variable but shifted from predominantly positive (away) to negative (toward) following the HCS crossing. .Forecast... Further enhancements are anticipated 09-11 July with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Geomagnetic conditions are anticipated to reach mostly unsettled and active levels 09-11 July under the onset of -CH HSS influences, with a chance for isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming.