Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
235 FXXX12 KWNP 281231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 28 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4317 (N12W28, Cao/beta) produced a C9.9 flare, the largest flare of the period, at 27/2233 UTC. This region exhibited separation of its main leader spots with most of the trailer spots showing decay. Region 4321 (S10W56, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to increase the number of intermediate spots, becoming compact in its interior. Regions 4324 (N25E58, Dao/beta) and 4325 (S10E50, Dao/beta) both grew in area and spot count, with each adding a couple of low-level C-class flares. The remaining regions remained stable or showed slight decay during the day. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares (R1/R2 Minor-Moderate) on 28-30 Dec due to the flare potential of the current active regions. There is a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares during the 3-day period. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured at geostationary orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,120 pfu observed at 27/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remained at high levels through 28 Dec, with normal to moderate levels expected on 29-30 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 30 Dec, with a slight chance for a flux above the threshold of 10 pfu due to the flaring potential of the active regions on the visible solar disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Wind speeds decreased slightly from about 510 km/s to ~450 km/s, total interplanetary magnetic field strength averaged near 6-7 nT, and the Bz component ranged between +/-5 nT. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Mostly ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 28-30 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels, with possible unsettled periods, on 28-30 Dec.