Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
022 FXXX12 KWNP 141231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 14 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels. The largest event of the period was a C6.0 flare at 14/1113 UTC from Region 4374 (N10E13, Cao/beta). New Regions 4376 (N12E61, Hrx/alpha) and 4377 (N09E75, Bxo/beta) were numbered, while the remaining regions were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 16 Feb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,120 pfu observed at 13/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 14 Feb, before decreasing to moderate levels on 15-16 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 16 Feb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were consistent with waning negative polarity CH HSS influences, followed by a sector boundary crossing at 13/2100 UTC. Total magnetic field strength reached 10 nT, and the Bz component was sustained southward between 13/1900-2200 UTC, by as much as -9 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from around 375 km/s early in the period to a peak near 525 km/s at 14/0135 UTC. Phi reversed from negative to positive at 13/2100 UTC. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 16 Feb due to CIR influences followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Weak CME enhancements are possible on 14-15 Feb as a CME from 11 Feb passes in close proximity. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels following a solar sector boundary crossing. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 14 Feb with CIR effects likely developing late in the day. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 15-16 Feb, with a chance for isolated G2 (Moderate) storming on 15 Feb, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Weak CME enhancements are possible on 14-15 Feb as a CME from 11 Feb passes in close proximity.