Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
402 FXXX12 KWNP 231231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 23 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels with the largest flare, a C3.3/Sf at 23/0542 UTC from Region 4560 (N13W51, Eai/beta-gamma). The only other active on the visible solar disk is Region 4557 (N07W75, Cao/beta), who was responsible for few C-class flares, including a C1.3 at 23/0355 UTC associated with an eruption observed first by GOES-19/SUVI and later by the operational coronagraphs (first imagery from LASCO/C2 at 23/0428 UTC). Preliminary analysis indicate that the trajectory of this CME will not intercept the Geospace. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 25 Oct, with a slight chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4560. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 23/1140 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels on 23-25 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to persist at background levels through 25 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected diminishing positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was about 5 nT with a north-south (Bz) component oscillating between -/+ 6 nT during the period. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from 450 km/s level to about 400 km/s late in the period. The phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (away from the Sun). .Forecast... Undisturbed solar wind conditions are expected early 24 Oct with enhancements returning on 25 Oct due to the combined influences of a negative polarity CH HSS and possible glancing CME effects from the 21 Oct eruptions. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity decreased from active to quiet levels during the past 24h. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 23 Oct as CH HSS influences wane, transitioning to mostly quiet levels on 24 Oct. A return to active levels, with a chance for geomagnetic storming, is anticipated on 25 Oct due to low-confidence combined effects from a recently emerged negative polarity coronal hole and potential glancing CME impacts.