Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
046 FXXX12 KWNP 290031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Apr 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels as Region 4420 (N16W43, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced three M1 flares. The largest was an M1.5/Sn at 28/1353 UTC. Only C-class flaring was observed from Region 4425 (N05E22, Ekc/beta-delta), despite its complexity. The largest was a C8.1/1f at 28/1849 UTC. Slight decay was observed in the leading and intermediate spots of Region 4420 and indications of simplifying magnetically. Slight growth and consolidation was observed in Regions 4425 and 4424 (N17W08, Eao/beta). New Region 4428 (S24E13, Cro/beta) emerged and was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 29 Apr - 01 May with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) due primarily to the complexity of Regions 4420 and 4425. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 29 Apr. An increase to high levels is likely on 30 Apr - 01 May due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could reach S1 (Minor) levels on 29 Apr - 01 May due to the flare potential of Regions 4420 and 4425. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 343-421 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-4 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-2 nT. Phi angle was variable through 28/0213 UTC. Thereafter it settled into a mostly positive sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels through midday on 29 Apr. An increase in activity is expected by mid to late on 29 Apr with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. HSS conditions are expected to persist through 01 May. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550 km/s range are likely. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mostly quiet levels are expected to persist through mid to late on 29 Apr. An increase to unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, is expected on 29-30 Apr with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled levels are expected on 01 May as HSS activity persists.