Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
900 FXXX12 KWNP 061231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Mar 06 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels. Predominently B-class, with isolated C-class, flares were observed. Region 4381 (N08W12, Dai/beta) exhibited moderate growth in its intermediate and trailing spots, and kicked off a C1.8 flare at 05/1950 UTC. New Region 4386 (N16W70, Bxo/beta) was numbered, and was the only other spot group to experience growth during the period. The remaining numbered regions were mostly unchanged and inactive. Additional activity included a filament eruption in the SE quadrant, centered near S20E30. A CME was noted in C2 coronagraph imagery starting at 06/0428 UTC. Modeling efforts are underway at the time of this summary. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 08 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels with a peak of 581 pfu observed at 05/1440 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is to remain at moderate levels 06 Mar before reaching high levels on 07-08 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 08 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of a near-backgroud solar wind regime. A slight enhancement was observed near 06/0400 UTC, however, parameters remained at near nominal levels. Solar wind speed was between 350-400 km/s. Aside from a brief increase to 10 nT, total magnetic field (Bt) averaged around 5 nT, the North-South (Bz) component was variable between +/-5 nT, and the Phi angle switched from positive to negative towards the end of the period. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to continue near ambient levels for the first half of 06 Mar. By late on 06 Mar to early on 07 Mar, the onset of a stronger negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) is anticipated. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels early on 06 Mar as lingering enhancements subside; G1 (Minor) storming is likely later on 06 Mar due to the anticipated onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Active conditions are expected 07-08 Mar as high-speed stream influences continue.