974
FXXX12 KWNP 011231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Sep 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased to low levels, with only C-flare activity
observed. Region 4197 (S18W31, Eki/beta-gamma) produced most of the
C-class activity during the period, and decay was noted among the
intermediate and trailer spots of the region. Region 4202 (S15W12,
Hax/alpha) produced a C6.8 flare at 31/1826 UTC, the largest event of
the period. Other active regions were mostly stable. No Earth-directed
CMEs were detected.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance
for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater), through 03 Sep.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually increased to peak flux of
6.4 pfu after ~31/2000 UTC but remained below S1 (Minor) storm levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 01-02 Sep, with moderate to high levels likely on
03 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to reach S1
(Minor) storm levels on 01 Sep, especially following the initial arrival
of the 30 Aug CME. S1 conditions are likely to persist into 02 Sep, with
a chance for S1 levels on 03 Sep.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions were nominal overall with some weak negative
polarity CH HSS influences possible. Total magnetic field strength
peaked at 8 nT, while the Bz component varied between +7/-5 nT.
Solar wind speed declined gradually from 475 km/s to around 400 km/s.
The phi orientation was predominately negative.

.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced conditions are expected for most of 01 Sep under
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Stronger enhancements are likely
late on 01 Sep through most of 02 Sep with the anticipated arrival of
the 30 Aug asymmetric full-halo CME. Weakly enhanced solar wind
conditions may persist on 03 Sep as CME influences wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Periods of G2 (Moderate) storming are likely, with a chance for G3
(Strong) storm periods, late on 01 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of
the 30 Aug asymmetric full-halo CME. On 02 Sep, periods of G3 (Strong)
storming are likely, with a chance for G4 (Severe) storm periods, as CME
effects persist. By 03 Sep, the solar wind environment should decrease
to quiet to active levels as CME influences diminish.