Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
978 FXXX12 KWNP 151231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate (R1-Minor) levels. Region 4274 (N25W80, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two impulsive M1.3 flares at 14/2012 UTC and 14/2131 UTC. Only minor changes were observed in seven numbered regions across the visible disk. An approximately 20 degree-long filament, centered near N30W38, was observed lifting off the disk in GONG H-alpha imagery from ~14/1800-1930 UTC. Most of the ejecta was reabsorbed aside from a narrow CME observed in LASCO/SOHO C2 imagery beginning at 14/1912 UTC. No Earth-directed component is suspected. Another eruption along a filament channel was observed in the SE quadrant after ~15/0430 UTC. Subsequent coronagraph imagery contained a slow-moving, southward oriented CME signature. Modelling of the ejecta is ongoing. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for X-class (R3-Strong) activity on 15-17 Nov, mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4274. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux were at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased below S1 (Minor) levels at 14/1325 UTC. Peak flux for the event was 16.5 pfu. The activity was associated with an X4.0 flare from Region 4274 on 14 Nov. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 15-17 Nov. There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could see additional S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 15-16 Nov while Region 4274 continues to transit the W limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected decreasing CME influence from the 11 Nov event. Solar wind speed were between 525-625 km/s. Total magnetic field strength varied between 4-7 nT. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced but waning through 15 Nov as CME influences diminish. Speeds in the 500-600 km/s range are likely through 15 Nov. By mid to late on 16 Nov, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), preceding a negative polarity CH HSS, will likely become geoeffective causing another enhancement in the solar wind parameters over 16-17 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... As solar wind speeds remain elevated yet waning, there is still a decreasing chance for an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 15 Nov. However, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for most of 15 Nov, continuing through late on 16 Nov until the anticipated arrival of a CIR/CH HSS later in the UTC day. Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 16-17 Nov.