Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
838 FXXX12 KWNP 220031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4507 (N04, L=198) produced a long-duration M1.6 (R1/Minor) flare at 21/1018 UTC from around the West limb. The M1.6 flare was accompanied by a Tenflare (140 sfu) that peaked at 21/0934 UTC. Region 4513 (N04E55, Eac/beta-gamma-delta) remained the most complex region on the visible disk but only produced C-class X-ray activity during the period. The remaining spotted regions were unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class events (R3/Strong) on 22-24 Aug, mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4513. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained near background levels, with a slight elevation following recent activity from around the West limb. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at high levels on 22-24 Aug due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue elevated above background levels but below S1 (Minor) through 24 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influences of a negative polarity coronal hole HSS. Total magnetic field strength remained below 5 nT. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from ~550 km/s to ~475 km/s. Phi angle was predominately negative during the reporting period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters near Earth are likely to continue reflecting waning influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream over 22 Aug, returning to undisturbed levels on 23-24 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled during the period. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to continue at quiet to unsettled levels over 22-23 Aug as the ongoing CH HSS influences near Earth wane. Mostly quiet levels are likely on 24 Aug.