835
FXUS63 KDLH 060802
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
302 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low stratus and fog will lift with sunrise this morning.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive this evening
  across the west, with more widespread rainfall arriving
  tomorrow through Tuesday morning.

- Low end chance of strong to severe weather for northern
  Minnesota Monday, with more widespread potential on Tuesday.

- Gale-force wind gusts are possible over western Lake Superior
  early to mid next week, especially Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Mid and upper level ridge axis sits to our west this morning,
with weak ripples in northwesterly flow providing lift for a few
isolated showers. Coverage is less than 15% and expect most of
the area to remain dry. Where a shower does pass, sprinkles or a
brief period of light rain is possible. Seeing areas of low
clouds and fog develop as mid level clouds clear and surface
temps cool. Do not expect widespread dense fog, but cigs at or
below 300ft and visibilities below 1 mile are possible through
sunrise.

For today, although cigs improve, expect mostly cloudy skies for
much of the area. This could keep temperatures lower than
expected, despite weak low level warm advection. Instabilities
build to our west, where clusters of storms will develop and
spread toward north central MN this evening. Better shear values
remain to our west with only weak CAPE over the Northland. Some
of this activity will like spread into the area this evening,
and will show increasing chances of showers and storms across
the west, then spreading eastward overnight. Severe storms are
not expected with this initial round of convection.

Monday into Tuesday continues to look wet with widespread
rainfall and thunderstorms. PW values are above the 90th
percentile, and forecast QPF reflects that, with totals of
0.50-1.50 inch for the Sunday thru Tuesday time period.
Additionally, increasing shear and instability with dewpoints
well into the 60s, could lead to strong to severe storms Monday
and Tuesday, before a cold front pushes through the area.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Persistent stratus this afternoon is keeping temperatures on
the cool side, only rising so far into the upper 60s to low 70s.
Sites that manage to clear off will warm quickly within a short
time, like has happened for Brainerd and the Phillips areas. We
have been monitoring a cluster of showers and isolated storms
which moved out of North Dakota this morning, and have been
slowly decaying as they move east. Between the stratus and a
general lack of instability or shear, this trend will continue
this afternoon. In fact, doubt there will be much more than a
few sprinkles for parts of Itasca and northern Cass counties
before these decay completely by late afternoon. What stratus
does not break up this afternoon is likely to expand in coverage
once again tonight, with some associated fog. Places that clear
out this evening are more likely to develop locally dense fog
before the stratus slides in over it. Areas under clouds will
have better visibility, as happened this morning.

Our main upper level pattern keeps that ridge axis sitting just
west of the forecast area tonight, and with some weak ripples
moving through that flow, we may get another cluster of
showers/storms to affect the western CWA late tonight into
Sunday. Forcing is rather weak and we are going to have to wait
and see on details before increasing pops much over what we have
now.

Sunday and Sunday night presents a bit of a conundrum, as we
may have a repeat of today, with stratus lingering over the area
to keep temperatures on the cool side. However, if we can break
out of the clouds, it will be warm and humid with highs in the
mid 70s to low 80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
spread in from west to east during the daytime into the evening,
with some stronger ones possible for north central Minnesota.
Storms will again weaken and decrease in coverage as they move
east into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.

The active weather pattern continues into next week as a
strong, cut off upper level low pressure system crosses the
northern Rockies, pushing a surface low from where it develops
over eastern Montana early Monday northeast into northern
Manitoba by Tuesday night, continuing northeast through
Wednesday. This system appears almost fall-like with the tightly
wound surface low and deep upper level low. This system should
bring us a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning
Monday afternoon into Monday night, with additional chances for
precipitation continuing Tuesday into Wednesday as slow moving
frontal features move across the area. It appears the risk for
severe storms Monday should stay to our west, but we may get
some stronger storms Monday night. We will have the potential
for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening with
the best potential for the overlap of sufficient instability and
shear.

The latter half of the work week will become cooler with highs
on Wednesday potentially staying in the 60s to low 70s with
clouds and a few showers. Blustery westerly winds will develop
for Wednesday in the wake of the front passage, with gusts
reaching 30mph or stronger. Conditions settle down through the
remainder of the work week, with slowly moderating temperatures
and a slight chance of lingering showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Areas of mid level and high clouds around the Northland tonight,
with a few light showers pushing southward across north central
MN. Showers should not have any impact on forecast terminals,
other than brief, very light rain.

Expect stratus and fog again tonight, with development already
occurring at INL. Have included reduced vis and cigs at all
terminals, with a short period of IFR/LIFR conditions around
sunrise. Stratus and fog lift, with improving conditions through
Sunday morning as winds increase from the southeast at 5-8kts.

Chances for showers and storms increase after 07/00Z, with most
of the activity remaining west of forecast terminals until after
07/06Z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Northeast winds continue today, with winds strongest at the head
of lake where gusts to 15kts are possible this afternoon. More
active weather returns tonight into early next week, with
several opportunities for showers and storms. In addition, east
to southeast winds increase Monday and Monday evening, with
gusts to 25kts along portions of the North Shore. Gale force
gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected, possibly up to 35 knots
are along the North Shore on Tuesday from the south. Winds
switch to northwest on Wednesday and increase still more before
diminishing again for the rest of the week. Gale Watches, and
then warning and advisories will likely be needed for at least
one day early to mid next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will largely remain above 45
percent through the weekend into early next week as abundant
moisture stays in place. Southeast to south winds will
generally remain under 15 mph today. A wetter pattern arrives
tonight through Tuesday, with widespread wetting rain and
thunderstorms expected. Rainfall amounts of over 1 inch of
rainfall is possible along and north of the Iron Range. Winds
will increase significantly next week, with gusts of 20 to 30
mph on land starting Monday, increasing to a maximum on
Wednesday behind a cold front. Expect southeasterly winds Monday
to shift to southerly Tuesday morning, with a secondary wind
shift to northwesterly on Wednesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HA
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA