154
FXUS63 KDLH 051143
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening from the Brainerd Lakes area eastward across the
  Interstate 35 corridor and northwest Wisconsin.

- Additional rainfall amounts through the weekend, mainly for
  locations near and south of US-2, average 0.10 to 0.30 inch,
  with most getting the lower amounts or less. Localized
  locations under heavier storms could receive around 0.50 inch.

- Heat dome next week brings high confidence in at least
  Moderate (Level 2 of 4) heat-related impacts to entire region
  away from Lake Superior shorelines. Areas of Major (Level 3 of
  4) impacts north-central Minnesota and inland northwest
  Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A weak cool front is moving through the Northland this
morning, with a couple clusters of thunderstorms ongoing this
morning ahead of the front. Storms have shown a weakening trend
over the last couple hours, and expect that trend to continue
through sunrise. In the wake of rain, fog development is
expected especially at locations that saw rainfall Thursday
evening/night. Fog will linger through sunrise.

This afternoon and evening, a stronger cold front drives south
from Ontario into the region. Enhanced moisture and daytime
heating will build a moderately unstable environment ahead of
the front. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop,
warranting a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal risk) for severe weather
from Brainerd, eastward across the Interstate 35 corridor and
all of northwest Wisconsin. Deep-layer wind shear will be
stronger than previous days, supporting organized storm
structures capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
and large hail. The risk will peak during the late afternoon
and evening hours before tracking south and east out of the area
Friday night. Total rainfall through the end of the week will
remain light and highly variable, generally ranging from one-
tenth to four- tenths of an inch, though localized higher
amounts can accompany the stronger storms while some areas miss
out entirely.

High pressure builds across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, bringing a
brief reprieve with clear skies and dry conditions. This quiet
interlude will be short-lived as a upper-level ridge begins to
amplify over the central United States by Sunday. Southerly to
southwesterly low-level winds will tighten, initiating a
significant and prolonged warming trend. High temperatures this
weekend will quickly climb well above seasonal averages,
placing the region firmly into an early summer weather pattern.

A short reprieve from the heat is possible Monday as a weather
system within southwesterly flow rotates northeastward into the
region, bringing Gulf moisture northward. Increased cloud cover
and rain chances will keep highs in the 70s and lower 80s. A
couple concerns with this weather pattern - a warm and dry
ridge is hard to overcome, and convective activity to our south
couple prevent deeper moisture from advecting as far north as
the Northland, limiting rain coverage and amounts.

A heat dome sets up over the Great Lakes region through next
week. Multiple days of consecutive high temperatures reaching
the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast for interior portions of
the Northland. Southerly flow will continue to draw high Gulf
moisture northward, driving up dew points and increasing
humidity levels. Due to the extended duration of these hot days
and warm overnight lows, we will be monitoring the need for
possible heat headlines by the middle of next week. Nearly all
of the region will see Moderate (Level 2 of 4) heat risk impacts
with areas of Major (Level 3 of 4) impacts possible in north-
central Minnesota and inland northwest Wisconsin. Active
southwesterly flow aloft around the periphery of the ridge will
maintain daily, isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms
from Tuesday through Thursday, though no widespread pattern-
breaking rainfall is expected to disrupt the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Patchy fog early this morning will be dissipating over the next hour
as diurnal heating begins. Cloud cover will be increasing this
afternoon as a cold front slowly sweeps through, resulting in the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms later this
morning into the afternoon. Confidence in these showers and storms
is highest over KBRD and KHYR, with lesser confidence farther
north. Thunderstorms may produce MVFR visibility, with IFR
conditions, strong wind gusts, and large hail possible under the
strongest storms. As winds become light tonight, another round
of fog will be possible, especially around terminals that see
rainfall today.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Quiet conditions prevail across the nearshore waters of western Lake
Superior through Saturday. Winds will be from the southwest at
5 to 10 knots today with waves 1 to 2 feet or less. Winds become
light and variable around 5 to 10 knots Saturday. Waves will
drop to 1 foot or less for Saturday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and night, with
locally higher wind gusts and small hail possible near any
stronger storms. Expect a wind shift to easterly Saturday
evening, then to the northeast on Sunday and increasing to from
10 to 15 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A weak cold front moves through the area today, with light
westerly winds this morning increasing to 5-10 mph this
afternoon. Winds become light and variable tonight, then
predominantly from the northwest to north Saturday at less than
10 mph. Low- level moisture continues to increase today,
keeping minimum relative humidity values above 30 percent this
afternoon, despite highs warming into the 80s.

Wetting rain chances have dwindled, with sparse, scattered
amounts under one- quarter of an inch expected through tonight.
Dry conditions rule Saturday and Sunday, with relative humidity
values dropping to 25 to 30 percent north of the Iron Range.
Southwest winds increase Sunday with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday
will be another day to watch for near- critical fire weather
conditions.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy/HA
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...NLy/HA