739
FXUS63 KDLH 261125
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
625 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of light rain moves through the Northland today before
  ending early Sunday morning in the Arrowhead and north-
  central Wisconsin. The highest rain amounts up to half of an
  inch are expected in north-central Minnesota.

- A more widespread soaking rainfall is forecast Monday night
  through Tuesday.

- Next frost and freeze potential is next next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Early this morning, a broad upper-level ridge sits over the region
while a short-wave trough approaches from the west. Moisture is
advecting into north-central Minnesota this morning ahead of
that incoming short-wave. The combination of the frontal forcing
and sufficient moisture in place later this morning creates a
day of light to moderate rainfall amounts for north-central
Minnesota. As this system pushes eastward, it will provide light
rainfall for northeast Minnesota this evening and early
overnight. Meanwhile, very little rainfall is expected for the
eastern Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin, with all
precipitation ending last Sunday morning. Gusty southeast winds
will mix down today to create gusts of 25 mph for the Brainerd
Lakes to Koochiching County region. Expect high temperatures
today to only peak around 60 F for the Brainerd Lakes given that
earlier onset of precipitation, meanwhile eastward highs will
range from the lower 60s in the west to the low 70s in northwest
Wisconsin. Northeast winds over Lake Superior will funnel into
the Twin Ports, bringing dangerous rip currents to area beaches
by this afternoon. Another Beach Hazards Statement is in effect
today for the Lake Superior beaches in the Twin Ports.

Early Sunday morning, the rain will depart the eastern
Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin as the short-wave trough
lifts into Ontario. The rest of the Northland will see skies
gradually clear from west to east. Temperatures will generally
range from the middle 60s to near 70 degrees. Areas in the east
may remain a bit cooler due to the lingering morning clouds and
earlier rain showers. Winds will weaken and shift to the south
and southwest throughout the day.

The next round of even more widespready moderate rainfall is
forecast late Monday into Tuesday. An upper-level deep Western
CONUS trough will aid in moisture advection from the eastern
Pacific into the Upper Midwest and interact with a shortwave
moving through the southern Canadian Plains. This will set the
stage for a widespread, soaking rainfall across the Northland
starting late Monday night and continuing through much of
Tuesday. Heaviest rainfall amounts are currently forecast for
mainly northern Minnesota for this early next week rainfall, but
northwest Wisconsin still has a 60-80% chance for a light to
moderate rainfall event. Rumbles of thunder within the
widespread wetting rainfall cannot be ruled out either, but
discrete strong thunderstorms are not expected.

On Wednesday, the deepened Canadian shortwave will move
eastward and place more zonal flow over the Upper Midwest. This
will create a short-lived increase in high temperatures on
warmer air advection back over northern Minnesota, still cooler
in northwest Wisconsin, for Wednesday daytime. By Thursday, a
cold front moves through the Upper Midwest to Manitoba/northwest
Ontario region. Expect gusty westerly winds Thursday and a
quick return to more fall-like temperatures in the lower-60s to
end the upcoming work week. The next frost and freeze potential
returns next weekend as the cooler, but more normal for the
season, airmass sets up under strong high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Morning dense fog in the Twin Ports and parts of northwest
Wisconsin dissipates 13-15Z today. A band of rainfall moves
into north-central Minnesota later this morning after 14Z and
slowly lifts northeastward. Terminals in northeast Minesota see
VFR at least through 21Z today...much later towards 03Z Sunday
into northwest Wisconsin. Expect breezy southeast winds 8-15
knots today gusting 15-25 knots and remaining mixed out for
parts of the region even post-sunset this evening. After the
rain ends tonight and where the winds become calm to less than 5
knots and fog sets up in the areas with the most rainfall
observed today....especially northern Minnesota.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Light northeast winds early this morning will strengthen to 10
to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots by this afternoon at the
head of the lake, lesser wind speeds elsewhere. These conditions
in the southwest arm are forecast to build waves to 2 to 3 feet
near the Twin Ports. Winds will veer to the south and southwest
tonight into Sunday, remaining at 10 knots or less with waves
subsiding to 1 foot or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast
period. Gusty southeast winds are expected today, ranging from 8
to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph, especially over central
and north-central Minnesota. A wetting rainfall will spread
across north-cental Minnesota today and then eastward, but with
only light and non-wetting amounts, this evening and overnight.
Expect a stark gradient in relative humidity today where
northwest Wisconsin may dip into the upper-30% and the Brainerd
Lakes are closer to the 80-90% range. Winds will diminish and
shift to the south and southwest for Sunday with afternoon
relative humidity values areawide becoming 50 to 70 percent.
Most districts could see a wetting rainfall Monday night into
Tuesday, but still highest amounts for north-central Minnesota.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for MNZ037.
     Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through this
     evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through this
     evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy
FIRE WEATHER...NLy