923
FXUS63 KDLH 151144
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
644 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet with sunshine north and clouds south today.

- Strong to severe thunderstorm chances are increasing for
  Monday afternoon and evening.

- After Monday, occasional rain chances, especially later this
  week.

- Seasonably warm temperatures through the week. Some warm to
  hot temperatures in the 80s possible next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Some mixed weather out there this morning with partially to
mostly clear skies for much of northeast Minnesota and clouds
into northwest Wisconsin as plenty of warm and moist air
advection is causing clouds to spread north and west. Where it`s
clear, some patchy fog and cool temperatures. A few upper 30s
are being observed in the Arrowhead, but dewpoints are high
enough such that frost shouldn`t be a concern this morning.

For today, PoPs have been trimmed substantially to basically
none. The cloud cover should do a good job at capping the
environment for convection. With that said, we will have a
shortwave passing through later this afternoon and evening, so
PoPs start to increase this evening as some scattered showers
could start to sprout up. A low-level jet will also increase
with plenty of southwesterly warm air advection just aloft.
Winds at the surface remain light though. With an inversion
becoming more solidified, low clouds and some fog will be
possible.

Monday is looking to be the most interesting day of the forecast
period. We`ll have an upper level trough and deepening low
pressure passing through with a cold front. The severe threat is
looking a bit more favorable with this update as models start to
come together with timing of synoptic features and convective
ingredients. So starting with Monday morning, we could get some
initial showers and non-severe elevated storms that would most
likely affect northwest Wisconsin associated with the warm/moist
air advection and a weak passing trough. This should do a good
job of keeping the lower atmosphere capped through the morning
if this plays out as it currently looks (though it could
certainly change). We should have very efficient warm air
advection going on through the day though, and mid-level lapse
rates increasing to 7-8 C/km will create an environment
favorable for some very unstable air. The best severe threat
will be across southern Minnesota, where CAPE over 3k J/kg will
promote a very large hail threat. Favorable veering in the low
levels means that tornadoes will be possible as well. In our
region, there is still some uncertainty for how far north the
very unstable air will make it, though confidence is increasing
that our southern counties (including the Brainerd Lakes to
Hinckley to Spooner areas, approximately) will be on the
northern periphery of the 2-3k J/kg MUCAPE. It`ll be here where
the threat for large hail (~30% chance of hail that could be 2"+
in diameter) and a ~5% chance for tornadoes will be possible
(per SPC, with an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms). As
you head further north, we will have a lake breeze to contend
with that will cut off some surface instability, and also the
low passing through our region and gradually cutting off the
deep warm air advection. That just means a decreasing threat for
severe storms from south to north, and since we`re in this
"Goldilocks" zone right now where there`s still some uncertainty
on how far north the best convective ingredients will make it,
expect there to be some fine tuning of the forecast in the next
12-24 hours. With all that said, it`s looking like Monday
afternoon into Monday evening should be pretty active with some
initially discrete supercells (hail and tornado threats)
developing, possibly becoming more linear into the evening
(increasing wind threat). Stay tuned for more updates.

After the front passes Monday evening, we will welcome northwest
flow and some quieter weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. We`ll
probably see some sunshine and diurnal cumulus clouds. Maybe
some stray showers/storms, but only with ~30% chances. We might
get a passing shortwave around Thursday, bringing an increased
chance for rain (~30-40%).

Broader ridging is looking favorable over the weekend, so we may
start to see some warm to hot temperatures with highs rising
into the 80s. Nighttime lows could be warm as well (60s for many
places starting around Friday night). There could be some
occasional rain chances as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Fog has largely diminished, but it wouldn`t be surprising if
visibilities briefly dropped to MVFR/IFR in the next hour or two
at BRD/HIB, though it`s unlikely. Otherwise, low clouds have
moved into DLH/BRD/HYR, and they are expected to remain there
for most of the day as most models suggest. It is possible that
clouds may lift and scatter to VFR at DLH/BRD later this
afternoon for several hours. Winds will be generally light today
and switching over to the southeast. Tonight, a low level jet
develops, and this will cause an inversion and low clouds to
remain in place with falling ceilings to MVFR/IFR. Some fog is
also possible, and while it likely won`t be dense most of the
time, some 1SM or slightly lower visibilities can`t be
completely ruled out, with the best chances at HIB/DLH. A few
showers could develop tonight as well, though confidence is low
on where exactly they could set up.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Northeast winds continue today with some gusts up to 15 kt
around the head of the lake. Winds become a bit more light and
variable tonight, then more of a lake breeze developing on
Monday with light onshore winds along the shores (so southeast
winds on the North Shore, northeast at the head of the lake, and
east to northeast South Shore). Rain chances have decreased
substantially today, but they gradually start to increase with
some scattered showers possible later this evening and tonight. A
cold front is expected to pass through Monday afternoon and
evening, and with this, isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible. The main threats will be large
hail, damaging winds, and cloud- to- water lightning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS