463
FXUS63 KDLH 111213
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
613 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will be possible today and tomorrow. Any
  accumulations will be around an inch or less for most.

- Cold air arrives through the day Friday with the coldest
  temperatures expected Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in
  the single digits above and below zero with morning lows in
  the teens and 20s below zero.

- Temperatures warm heading into the new week with a few chances
  for light snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

High pressure was in place across the Upper Midwest and into the
Mississippi Valley. Low stratus was evident on satellite
downwind of Lake Superior across parts of northern Wisconsin and
the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Another area of low stratus
stretched from northwestern Minnesota into central and
southeastern Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin. Light snow
was observed under this cloud deck. As the day progresses, the
high will shift to the southeast as a clipper system passes by
to our south. Most of the snow from this system looks to remain
to our south, but a few flurries will be possible across
northeastern Minnesota with some energy aloft. This activity
would mainly be during the afternoon before ending with the loss
of daytime heating. Highs today will be in the teens with lows
tonight falling into the single digits. An upper low moving
across northern Manitoba Friday will drag a cold front across
Upper Midwest. This will bring light snow showers starting
during the early morning hours and continuing through the day
before ending during the evening as the low moves east of Lake
Superior. Snowfall totals from this clipper will be around an
inch or less. Slight higher amounts will be possible with lake-
effect snowfall across the Bayfield Peninsula and into northern
Iron County. This snow may linger into Saturday morning.

Another shot of colder air moves in during the day Friday behind
the cold front. High temperatures will likely be reached by late
morning or midday with readings in the teens before temperatures
fall through the afternoon and evening. Lows Saturday morning
will settle into the single digits and teens below zero. Wind
chills will be in the 20s and 30s below zero as winds will
remain elevated through the night as a pressure gradient remains
overhead between the departing low to the east and high pressure
building in from the west. Highs Saturday will likely remain
below zero with the only areas reaching positive territory being
near Lake Superior. The high dives to the south on Saturday
night into Sunday with another very cold night expected as lows
fall into the teens and 20s below zero. Winds will be lighter,
but wind chills will again be in the 20s to 30s below zero. Cold
Weather headlines may be needed both Saturday and Sunday
mornings. Winds turn southerly on Sunday bringing warm air
advection to the Upper Midwest and highs in the single digits
above zero.

The warmup will persist into the new week with highs in the
teens and 20s above zero Monday with 30s for Tuesday. A clipper
looks to slide by to the northeast of the region Sunday night
into Monday morning with perhaps some light snow showers across
the Arrowhead and some lake-effect along the South Shore.
Another clipper will take a similar track for Monday night into
Tuesday except perhaps a little further south. This will again
bring chances for light snow showers to mainly the Arrowhead
into the South Shore. The pattern will remain active into
midweek with another clipper possible along with temperatures
cooling slightly back to more normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail across the Northland this morning with a
few pockets of MVFR and IFR ceilings under low stratus.
Expecting a rise to VFR ceilings this morning before falling
late tonight as a clipper arrives. MVFR conditions will arrive
late in the period at INL, HIB and BRD as light snow showers
move in. Have removed the chances for light snow this afternoon
as models have trended drier. Winds will remain under 10 knots
through the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Katabatic winds have decreased a bit along the North Shore, but
continue to gust from the northwest at 30 knots at Grand Marais.
Expecting this downward trend to continue over the next few
hours and have extended the Small Craft Advisory to cover this.
Winds will then become westerly at around 10 knots or less for
this afternoon and tonight. Winds will then increase Friday from
the northwest to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots
that will persist Friday night into Saturday morning. Higher
gusts to 35 knots will be possible along the North Shore from
Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Winds will then remain elevated
for Saturday into Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for
     LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH