691
FXUS63 KDLH 242030
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
330 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers end tonight from west to east.

- Colder air arrives for Sunday through Tuesday with
  temperatures closer to normal.

- The pattern turns more active for the coming week with
  multiple chances for rain (and a little snow) with
  temperatures warming back above normal for the latter part of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Low pressure was located over northern Manitoba early this
afternoon with a cold front extending into northwestern
Ontario, central Minnesota and western Iowa. A line of showers
was observed on radar ahead of this cold front from northeastern
Minnesota into central Minnesota. A large area of high pressure
was centered over the northeastern CONUS with another area in
the northern High Plains. As the cold front moves to the east
into tonight, showers will end from west to east. An isolated
lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out with this activity,
but instability is very limited and lightning activity has
ceased after being present earlier this morning. Breezy
southerly slow ahead of the cold front has resulted in
temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s from the Minnesota
Arrowhead into the I-35 corridor and across northwest Wisconsin.

A much more seasonable airmass arrives tonight behind the cold
front as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs tomorrow
will only be in the upper 40s and 50s with mainly dry
conditions. The cold front may linger across northern Wisconsin
into southern Minnesota and bring a stray shower or two to our
southern row of counties in northwest Wisconsin. With the drier
air moving in and northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph across
northeastern Minnesota, RH values may fall into the 25 to 35%
range during the afternoon. Much of northern Minnesota away from
Lake Superior will fall below freezing tomorrow night with
mid-20s possible in north-central Minnesota.

High pressure will be to our north on Monday before shifting to
the east Monday night into Tuesday. Surface low pressure will
move from the Central Plains to the Red River Valley of the
North Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers to
the region starting Monday night. Another upper low will emerge
from the Rockies Tuesday night into Wednesday with another area
of surface low pressure developing across the Northern Plains.
This will keep chances for showers in place across the Northland
into Wednesday afternoon. Additional rainfall chances will then
be seen for the end of the week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will
be in the 40s and 50s before warming into the 50s and 60s for
the remainder of the week. With lows Monday night into Tuesday
morning falling below freezing across northern Minnesota, so
snow may mix with the rain or possibly change over to all snow
for a brief period before temperatures trend warmer after
sunrise Tuesday morning. No accumulations are expected, but
don`t be surprised to see some white stuff in the air in spots
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A line of showers currently extends from northeastern Minnesota
southwest into the Brainerd Lakes area with MVFR conditions
prevailing under this activity. A few pockets of IFR ceilings
are present as well, but this is expected to be short lived.
Lightning activity has dropped to almost nothing, but an
isolated strike or two cannot be ruled out as activity moves to
the east. VSBYs will drop to MVFR for a period as the heaviest
area of showers moves through before returning to VFR. Ceilings
are expected to rise to VFR following the showers with VFR
prevailing thereafter. Gusty southwesterly winds will turn
northwesterly as a cold front passes through this afternoon and
evening and then decrease to under 10 knots for the overnight
hours.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Southwesterly winds gusting to 20 to 25 knots will continue this
afternoon before turning northwesterly and diminishing this
evening into tonight as a cold front moves through. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect this afternoon, but are expected to
end by early evening as winds diminish. A line of showers will
be ahead of the cold front and a few isolated lightning strikes
cannot be ruled out in this activity. Westerly to southwesterly
winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected for Sunday with a few gusts
to 20 knots possible along parts of the North Shore. Winds then
swing around out of the northeast for Monday at 10 to 20 knots,
highest in the western arm of the lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers will be seen ahead of a cold front this afternoon and
evening with activity diminishing tonight. Rainfall will be
around a tenth of an inch or less with isolated higher amounts
in spots. Gusty southerly winds this afternoon will become
northwesterly behind the cold front and then diminish after
sunset. Generally dry conditions are expected for Sunday outside
of a few lingering showers in far southern areas. Afternoon RH
values will fall into the 30 to 35% range with a few pockets in
the 25 to 30% range in the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin.
Winds tomorrow will be northwesterly at 5 to 15 knots with a
few gusts to around 20 knots in the Arrowhead. A cooler and
wetter pattern is then expected for much of the coming week with
multiple chances for rainfall and temperatures closer to
normal.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH