604
FXUS63 KDLH 162314
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
514 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and sunny conditions this afternoon and Monday, but 5-10
  degrees cooler than yesterday.

- Elevated fire danger this afternoon due to very dry air,
  especially in northwest Wisconsin.

- A weak system is trending more south on Tuesday leaving us
  dry.

- A more active pattern develops late this upcoming week, but
  the potential for large, impactful low pressure systems
  remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

High pressure will bring clear skies and dry conditions across
the Northland this afternoon and continuing into Monday. It will
feel cooler than it has recently, with high temperatures
expected to be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Northwest winds will
ease throughout the afternoon and become light tonight. The main
concern for this afternoon is the increased fire danger.
Conditions are very dry, and humidity levels could drop into the
20 to 25 percent range this afternoon. This is especially true
for the Pine Barrens in northwest Wisconsin, so please use
caution with any activities that could start a fire.

Quiet weather continues for most of Monday, though clouds will
begin to increase across the southern half of our region during
the afternoon. We are tracking a weather system that is expected to
move across the Midwest on Monday evening, but forecast models show
it passing well to our south. This system will likely just act
to increase clouds with no accumulating precipitation here,
though areas to our south toward the Twin Cities may see a light
slushy coating.

After that system moves by, the weather pattern looks to become
more active late in the week. Our next best chance for
widespread precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday
as a fast-moving Alberta Clipper passes through the area. There
is still some uncertainty about what kind of precipitation to
expect, as temperatures will be hovering right around the
freezing mark. Model consensus suggests more rain than snow
though the Arrowhead and far north-central Minnesota may see
more flakes mix in. We are also monitoring a larger storm
system late in the week, but it currently looks like it will
also stay south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

High pressure will keep mainly clear skies and light winds in
place through the period. Some VFR clouds will move in to BRD
through the period as a system passes to the south, but no
impacts are expected.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Northwest winds will remain gusty over western Lake Superior
this afternoon, creating hazardous conditions for small craft.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all nearshore waters.
These advisories continue into this evening for the Minnesota
North Shore from Grand Portage to Taconite Harbor and for the
Wisconsin shore from Port Wing to Saxon Harbor. Advisories for
the remaining zones are expected to end this evening. Winds and
waves will diminish tonight as high pressure moves over the
region. Quiet marine conditions are then expected on Monday with
winds at 10 knots or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-
     140-141-146>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Wolfe