671
FXUS63 KDLH 042113
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
313 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers arrive today and tonight in the Borderlands and
  along the North Shore, where localized heavier amounts are
  possible.

- A second round of light snow is forecast for Friday along our
  south which will lead to a couple inches for east central
  Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

- Colder than average temperatures continue for the weekend
  with overnight lows dropping below zero and daytime highs
  remaining in the single digits and teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The Northland will experience active weather over the next
couple of days, starting with a weather system that is expected
to bring light snow showers today. Snow showers are fighting dry
air, so only flurries are being observed currently, but will
increase in intensity throughout the late afternoon and
evening. While overall accumulations will be minor - up to an
inch, the area near the North Shore of Lake Superior may see
the highest totals, possibly reaching 3 inches..

Another low pressure system will track south of our region on
Friday morning, bringing another chance for accumulating snow,
particularly across our southern forecast area, including east
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Current forecast
guidance suggests these areas could receive 2 to 3 inches of
snow, potentially impacting morning and afternoon travel.
Further north, totals are expected to be lighter, with only a
trace expected in the Iron Range. This system will move off to
the east by Friday night, but an incoming cold air mass behind
the system will cause lake effect snow in Iron County. This lake
effect snow is expected to linger as late as early Sunday
morning, continuing until the air over Lake Superior becomes too
dry to produce snow showers. Following the end of the lake
effect snow, the fresh surge of cold air will settle into the
rest of the Northland for the weekend. This will lead to a
significant drop in temperatures, with readings up to 15 degrees
below normal on both Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the
teens and single digits, while overnight lows will be below zero
and approaching -10 degrees.

Early next week, the weather pattern remains active with another
approaching weather system associated with a push of warmer air
aloft. While precipitation is possible, confidence in the exact
track, timing, and amounts of any potential snowfall is low due
to forecast guidance diverging.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

A double dose of light snowfall is expected over the TAF period.
First, a clipper will move across the Iron Range this evening and
will affect INL, HIB, and possibly DLH, which is covered by a
PROB30. IFR conditions are expected at INL, where the heaviest
snowfall is expected, and MVFR to the south with occasional
drops to IFR. Second, a smaller system passing just to our south
will lead to light snow across our southern area, affecting BRD,
HYR, DLH, and possibly HIB (PROB30). Conditions will largely be
MVFR, but IFR conditions are possible with areas of heavier
snowfall. Strong southwest winds today up to 25 kts will
decrease overnight as the systems move out of the region.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 118 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Strong winds are expected across western Lake Superior over the
next 48 hours. Southwesterly winds will continue to increase
this afternoon, reaching gale force with gusts of 35 to 40
knots, particularly along the North Shore and the Outer Apostle
Islands. These strong winds will generate significant waves of 7
to 10 feet, with occasional waves approaching 12 feet near
Grand Portage. Freezing spray is also expected, which can
accumulate ice on vessels. Winds will shift to the west on
Friday and decrease, though hazardous conditions for small
craft may linger into the morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for LSZ121-145>148.
     Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for LSZ140>144-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML