311
FXUS63 KDLH 011918
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
218 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions will be on tap tomorrow with wind gusts in
  excess of 40 mph at times.

- Precipitation chances remain scarce through the forecast. A
  few sprinkles and flurries will be possible tomorrow with
  another chance (20%) Tuesday night into Wednesday morning

- Temperatures remain and the warm side of climatology with
  highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Which is 6-10 F above
  normal for this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Current Conditions/Tomorrow:

Fairly quiet conditions this afternoon and tonight as an upper level
low dips through the Midwest with ridging over the Northland.
Lake effect showers over Ashland and Iron County will be
tapering off this evening, Overnight lows will be in the 20s.

Warm air advection ramps up tomorrow as southwest flow increases out
ahead of an approaching cold front. The surface low will be cruising
across Manitoba leading to a tightening pressure gradient and
stronger winds across the region. In conjunction with this passing
system model guidance highlights a fairly strong low level jet
transitioning across the region with speeds over 55 mph. The
question will be how much of these winds will be able to mix down to
the surface. Lapse rates are only steep up to 900mb, and the
highest winds will be residing higher up around 800mb. For now,
we have opted to increase winds a little bit as winds in the
lowest 100mb are still around 45 mph. The latest high res
guidance shows a 60% chance of meeting Wind Advisory Criteria in
the morning across the Arrowhead. This band of wind will cross
into the NW WI in the afternoon with similar expectations as the
morning.

Mid level moisture will increase with the passage of this system but
the low levels look to remain fairly dry through the vast majority
of the day. The 12Z suite of deterministic models continue to trend
drier for QPF leading to an overall decrease in PoPs. We have
opted to hang onto some sprinkles and flurries that may be able
to survive the dry air entrainment. Otherwise we will mainly
just be looking at virga through the day further amplifying some
winds at the surface. Model soundings start to saturate in the
lower levels in the afternoon out ahead of the front where we
might be able to squeeze enough moisture and forcing out for
some light rain. But overall, rain amounts with this passing
system will be minimal.

Next Week:

Despite a cold front sliding through on Sunday we look to maintain
our above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 40s and low
50s. For context that is about 6-10 F above normal for this time of
year. An abundance of dry air filters in from the northwest on
Monday with some breezy conditions still expected. This combination
of dry and windy conditions may lead to some elevated fire weather
concerns.

Precipitation chances through the mid week time frame still look to
be a bit scarce. Zonal flow aloft will allow for some faster moving
features but the surface depiction remains a contested field among
the deterministic guidance. A surface low is forecasted to develop
out of the Central Plains late Tuesday and depending on its
track could bring some light QPF into the region. As it stands,
the Euro is the most aggressive with bringing some PoPs into the
region. For now, we will roll with the NBM which has 20% chance
of PoPs Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Complicated cloud pattern out there this afternoon with lingering
stratus deck over much of northern MN and some diurnal cumulus
populating across the rest of the region. Cloud bases continue to
fluctuate between MVFR and VFR and are expected to continue this
pattern until later this evening. Overnight, widespread VFR
conditions will overtake the region with high clouds moving aloft.
Strong southwesterly winds will begin to stream in tonight with low
level wind shear becoming problematic in the morning hours and
through the late morning hours. High res guidance is painting some
light rain showers possible tomorrow morning across the north but
given the dry air in the low levels this will most likely manifest
as virga.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A low pressure system moving across Manitoba tomorrow will lead to
increasing southwest winds across Lake Superior. Widespread gales
are expected by 8AM. Wave heights will be building through the day
with the highest wave of 6 to 11 feet expected along the North
Shore. Elsewhere the wave heights are expected to be 2 to 5 feet.
Gales are expected to weaken later Sunday night. Winds will turn
westerly after the gales but still remain strong with Small Craft
Advisories still being needed through Monday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-140>148-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt