489
FXUS63 KDLH 101758
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1158 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow is coming to an end this morning. Additional
  snow accumulations in Iron County are expected to be an inch
  or less.

- Light snow is likely this evening into early Tuesday morning,
  especially in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.
  Accumulations are forecast to be 0.5" or less.

- After tonight`s snow chances, a quieter pattern settles over
  the region with temperatures becoming unseasonably warm.

- The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives this
  upcoming weekend with precipitation type most likely being
  rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Lake effect snow has been continuing early this morning along
portions of the South Shore in north-central WI. As winds have been
backing to the northwest, lake effect snow intensity in the far
eastern CWA has been on a downward trend as fetch becomes much less
favorable for eastern portions of the CWA. In addition to fetch
becoming reduced, hi-res model soundings show that descending dry
air aloft will reduce low-level saturation and bring lake effect
snow to an end late this morning. A Winter Weather Advisory remains
in effect for Iron and Ashland Counties until 6 AM today, with
additional snow accumulations being an inch or less.

A surface ridge moving across the CWA will keep conditions for the
daylight hours quiet. Low-level stratus currently in place will
gradually scatter this afternoon, especially as dry air aloft
advects in. This reduced cloud cover is expected to be very short-
lived though as our next system moves into the CWA. The deep trough
that brought winter-like conditions this past weekend will be
propagating to the east through this afternoon. Coinciding with this
downstream propagation will be a breakdown of a ridge over the High
Plains as a shortwave trough moves into Manitoba. At the surface, a
warm front will sweep east into the northern Great Plains today
before occluding around western Minnesota as low-level cold air
advection occurs in associated with the shortwave.

Locally, this approaching occluded front will likely (50-70% chance)
produce light snow showers this evening into early Tuesday morning.
CAMs heavily suggest that this precip will likely take a linear
mode, concentrated along a band of FGEN moving through. Expect this
band of snow to move west to east across the CWA, with the majority
of snowfall occurring in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. QPF
associated with this system is forecast to be fairly light, as
ensembles strongly favor QPF under 0.1" (70-100% chance for QPF
<0.1" this afternoon into Tuesday morning). Model soundings show
that p-type through this evening will most likely be snow, despite
the potential for a shallow warm nose aloft on the southwest edge of
the precip band. Overall accumulations from this system tonight into
early Tuesday morning will be light, at 0.5" or less. Expect highest
accumulations in Cook County and in north-central WI.

On Tuesday, the shortwave trough that will be moving into Manitoba
today will propagate into western Ontario. While the majority of
precipitation is currently forecast to remain north of the Border,
far northern portions of the CWA may see a wintry mix on Tuesday
evening. Once this shortwave moves downstream, a quiet pattern will
likely settle over the Northland as a ridge slides into the central
CONUS. Temperatures will see a warming trend, with high temperatures
reaching unseasonably warm levels in the mid 40s to mid 50s for
most by late week.

Active weather potentially returns this upcoming weekend as a trough
digs into the central CONUS. Global models are generally in
agreement that precipitation will occur somewhere over the Upper
Midwest this upcoming weekend, but there are disagreements on timing
and location. At this time, it looks like p-type associated with
this system will most likely be rain as temperatures remain above
freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

MVFR stratus remains over much of the Northland with a few
pockets of IFR ceilings. Some improvement in the ceilings is
expected through the afternoon ahead of a front that will move
through later this evening. Light flurries and freezing drizzle
will remain possible under these low ceilings. Light snow
showers will accompany the front this evening with a brief
period of MVFR visibilities as they move through. Winds turn
southerly behind the front and will become gusty with gusts to
around 15 knots that will diminish for a bit after sunrise as
winds turn northwesterly and then increase again by midday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Winds have been easing across western Lake Superior this morning as
winds have backed to the northwest. A Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect for all nearshore waters until 6 AM this morning. With the
potential for lingering wind gusts around 25 knots due to downslope
flow from the North Shore, the Small Craft Advisory was extended to
10 AM this morning from Silver Bay to Grand Portage. Winds are
expected to shift to the southwest this evening and increase late
tonight into Tuesday morning. This will likely necessitate
additional Small Craft Advisories from Tuesday morning into Thursday
morning due to wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots and building waves. At
this time, there is also a 20-40% for gales in the outer Apostle
Islands and North Shore above Two Harbors.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Unruh