477
FXUS63 KDLH 031759
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1259 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze conditions are expected tonight in northwest
  Wisconsin and the Arrowhead.

- Rain is expected Saturday into Saturday evening, especially
  along the International Border.

- Another cold night with subfreezing temperatures expected
  Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Frost and sub-freezing temperatures down into the lower 30s
will wrap up around 7 AM this morning across portions of
Northwest Wisconsin and the Minnesota Arrowhead. A cloudy day is
in store today as an upper-level trough and surface low move
across the upper Mississippi Valley. Initial rain showers moving
over the International Border and Iron Range will encounter dry
low-level air, with much of the early radar echoes falling as
virga before the atmosphere saturates. Scattered rain showers
will continue on and off throughout the morning and afternoon.
Weak elevated instability along with precipitable water values
hovering around an inch may generate a few more robust
convective showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder.
Severe weather is not anticipated. Rainfall totals will
generally stay under a quarter of an inch, with many places
seeing less than a tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will pick
up today, gusting between 20 and 30 mph at times.

Precipitation will taper off tonight as the cold front moves
through, yielding clearing skies from west to east. Cool and
blustery post-frontal conditions take over on Sunday. Northwest
winds will be gusty, particularly across the Arrowhead region
where gusts of 20 to 30 mph are forecast. While some wraparound
cloudiness and isolated sprinkles are possible early in the day,
the region will stay predominantly dry with high temperatures
reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s.

High pressure will build into the region Sunday night, setting
up strong radiational cooling. Inland locations will see
temperatures drop into the 28 to 32 degree range, bringing
another widespread frost and freeze to the Northland. Areas
immediately adjacent to Lake Superior and parts of the Brainerd
Lakes area may remain slightly warmer. Southerly winds return on
Monday with abundant sunshine, and a warming trend will push
afternoon high temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s by
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak trough passing around mid-week
will bring minimal rain chances before slightly cooler air
settles in toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Scattered showers are moving across most of the Northland this
afternoon, with VFR cigs, and breezy southeast winds at most
terminals. Winds have already veered to the southwest at BRD,
closer to the approaching frontal system. There is better
instability across the southwest as well, and cannot rule out
thunder within the vicinity of BRD through mid afternoon.

One wave of showers stretching from near INL to HYR is moving to
the east, while the next wave is spreading northeastward across
BRD eastward to K04W/Hinckley. Expect showers at all terminals
through the afternoon, with minimal reductions in vis and cig.
Winds will gradually shift to the southwest, with gusts to
20-24kts at times. A period of LLWS is possible at DLH and HYR
this evening, as a low level jet increases ahead of approaching
cold front. Shower chances decrease at forecast terminals after
03Z, with a period of MVFR cigs possible at DLH and HYR.

Wind shift to the northwest is expected late in the forecast
period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

South winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to
30 knots today will build waves to 1 to 3 feet on Western Lake
Superior, requiring Small Craft Advisories for parts of the
South Shore, Outer Apostle Islands, and Grand Marais. As a cold
front moves through tonight, winds will shift to the west and
northwest, remaining gusty up to 30 knots on Sunday with waves
of 2 to 4 feet. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for
most nearshore waters through Sunday afternoon before high
pressure brings lighter winds Sunday night into Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Light rain showers today will keep fire weather concerns low
despite breezy southerly winds. A cold front passing tonight
will lead to a dry and blustery Sunday, featuring northwest
winds gusting 20 to 30 mph in the Arrowhead and relative
humidity values dropping into the 35 to 50 percent range.
Relative humidity remains low on Monday, but lighter surface
winds will limit fire potential before warmer temperatures
arrive mid-week.


See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT
     Sunday for LSZ121-140-141-145>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML