346
FXUS63 KDLH 281858
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
158 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Frost Advisory for Iron and Ashland counties for tonight
  into Friday morning.

- Scattered thunderstorms late this evening and tonight across
  the Brainerd Lakes and Mille Lacs Lake areas. Severe weather
  is not expected.

- Quiet and mild Thursday through Monday, before a cool down
  Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

For tonight across the Brainerd Lakes into the Mille Lacs Lake
areas, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in
a zone of weak warm air advection and locally higher moisture
with dewpoints in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Given modest
buoyancy, severe weather is not expected. Will maintain the
Frost Advisory for Ashland and Iron counties for late tonight
into early Friday morning. Elsewhere, higher dewpoints will be a
limiting factor for frost, supporting warmer overnight low
temperatures generally in the 40s, to perhaps even the lower 50s
from the the Brainerd Lakes through Leech Lake areas with added
cloud cover. If the Frost Advisory were to need to be expanded,
interior Cook county in Minnesota, and interior Bayfield
county in Wisconsin would have the next best chances for frost.

For Friday through Tuesday, the Northland will be in a diffuse
upper level pattern between an eastern US and Canadian trough
and a broad and low amplitude western US ridge. Thus, quiet
weather is expected with seasonal temperatures in the 70s for
most locations. This will change Tuesday into Thursday as a
strong shortwave and cold front moves across the area. Rain
showers and thunderstorms are expected with the passage of the
cold front Tuesday and Tuesday night, with scattered rain
showers behind the front on Wednesday in cold air advection and
the cold pocket aloft with the upper level low. Temperatures on
Wednesday may only climb into the 50s for most areas, with
temperatures only a few degrees warmer on Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

MVFR stratus and stratocumulus with a few pockets of IFR
ceilings will continue to scatter and lift to VFR cumulus this
afternoon. There is a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain showers
and thunderstorms near KBRD this evening, especially between 02
and 06Z. Patchy fog and stratus is possible near Lake Superior
late tonight into Friday morning, and across northwest
Wisconsin. Confidence is low in how widespread the fog and
stratus will be.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Northeasterly winds at 10 to 15 kts the rest of the afternoon
with higher gusts around 20 kts at the head of the Lake as
funneling may lead to some speed enhancements Duluth and
Superior. Wave action will remain between 2 and 4 ft early this
afternoon and will slowly subside through the rest of the day.
Look for winds to turn to out of the east on Friday with less
wave action due to wind speeds dropping to 5 to 10 kts or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for WIZ003-004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ143>146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ147-
     148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...PA